Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've wanted to do this for some time. Good for you to experience it! Some parts of the 2009 movie The Road were filmed there. If you go, I have a secret location to park (well some web sites know about it but not most.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Ughh. Just what I feared. My earlier post mentioned that the ensembles, especially the Eps and Geps, had a broad, oval ridge out west poking into the TN Valley approaching the MA, fearing it would suppress precip. Well, like clockwork, the 18z Gefs succumb to the Eps and Gefs. The top 2 maps are off the 12z with the 5H anomalies and 6-hour precip at the end of the run. Bottom 2 are off the 18z for the same time as 12z. Look how the ridge in the west is now stronger and pushing much further east and looks a lot like the 12z Eps and Geps (assuming you bothered to look at them.) Now look at the precip map...weaker and much further south thanks to the pancake ridge blocking the flow from the Gulf of Mexico. It's cr@p like this that is absolutely maddening because those "perfect" maps, at least in recent years, continue to degrade ascwe approach crunch time. And before some knucklehead jumps in and claims it, it has nothing to do with CC. It's just lousy modeling and even worse luck than was thought possible. Now this doesn't mean I am saying no change to cold or that this can't morph into something good or great past current models runs. I am saying, however, don't trust any model that shows a snowy or perfect pattern no matter how certain or clear it looks to be on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Might as well pile on with the bad news. I also said the stronger ridge to the east would warm things up than thought. Top map is 12z and bottom map 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I’m not worried about day 16 in the 18z GEFS when the day 13 map looks like this… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Furthermore, the ever so slight ridging in the Midwest at hour 384 on the 18z GEFS looks to be in response to the massive strong Greenland block that is backing to west. The STJ continues to push further to the east over the Gulf states. You also still have troughing in the 50/50 space at hour 384. This look, if it would hold, would still have plenty of good going for it. Also, temps at 384 are still cold in the east. Besides this, I think we will have a chance to score before day 16, & as I posted a little earlier, the good pattern should provide chances into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 As a few posters in the Mid Atlantic thread have said recently, we need to be patient. This upcoming pattern should produce, but some people probably will lose patience & sadly not make it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ughh. Just what I feared. My earlier post mentioned that the ensembles, especially the Eps and Geps, had a broad, oval ridge out west poking into the TN Valley approaching the MA, fearing it would suppress precip. Well, like clockwork, the 18z Gefs succumb to the Eps and Gefs. The top 2 maps are off the 12z with the 5H anomalies and 6-hour precip at the end of the run. Bottom 2 are off the 18z for the same time as 12z. Look how the ridge in the west is now stronger and pushing much further east and looks a lot like the 12z Eps and Geps (assuming you bothered to look at them.) Now look at the precip map...weaker and much further south thanks to the pancake ridge blocking the flow from the Gulf of Mexico. It's cr@p like this that is absolutely maddening because those "perfect" maps, at least in recent years, continue to degrade ascwe approach crunch time. And before some knucklehead jumps in and claims it, it has nothing to do with CC. It's just lousy modeling and even worse luck than was thought possible. Now this doesn't mean I am saying no change to cold or that this can't morph into something good or great past current models runs. I am saying, however, don't trust any model that shows a snowy or perfect pattern no matter how certain or clear it looks to be on modeling. Not directed at you but the way some (mostly on the MA) follow patterns 15 days out as if the modeling is "better" in that period has always left me confused. Sure, could be right but it is the same modeling that people mock 2, 3 days out sometimes. Now, pattern recognition is more broad scale and less subject to minor deviations like a short term synoptic forecast but discussing what a model/group of models is showing vs taking it almost carte blanche are two different things. This is not to say the "great pattern" is not coming vs. Wonder aloud why this seemingly repeating pattern of LR forecasting keeps happening each winter. Fun to track, not fun to buy in a 15 day model guess then be left holding the bag. I think we defintely see more snow this year either way...but should not be a surprise that what looked almost perfect is subject to change at that distance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m not worried about day 16 in the 18z GEFS when the day 13 map looks like this… Eps snowfall on day 14, which obviously includes 13, is attsched. Nothing of consequence. Pure scattering of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Eps snowfall on day 14, which obviously includes 13, is attsched. Nothing of consequence. Pure scattering of nothing. Long way to go, heck the Euro Op & Canadian Op are barely in 10 day range yet for the beginning of the pattern change on the 13th. The blocking that is developing will also throw models into fits as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: As a few posters in the Mid Atlantic thread have said recently, we need to be patient. This upcoming pattern should produce, but some people probably will lose patience & sadly not make it… Bliz, my point was and remains that the ensemble guidance can't detect the little nuances which are sufficient to fook our chances. As for patience, some of us have been weenies since the 1960's and realize that asking for patience at this point in the season is a stretch at best. Maybe in the mts. or in central and northern PA they can afford to be patient, but near the MD border and outside of the mts, me being patient or not has no effect on the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bliz, my point was and remains that the ensemble guidance can't detect the little nuances which are sufficient to fook our chances. As for patience, some of us have been weenies since the 1960's and realize that asking for patience at this point in the season is a stretch at best. Maybe in the mts. or in central and northern PA they can afford to be patient, but near the MD border and outside of the mts, me being patient or not has no effect on the calendar. We can score big snow until around March 20th or so even in the LSV. It just happened in 2018. I’ve been doing this for a few decades as well. This is the kind of pattern look that we dream of & we can go several years without this kind of pattern opportunity. This upcoming period has the chance to be our best sustained good Winter storm window since at least March of 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps snowfall on day 14, which obviously includes 13, is attsched. Nothing of consequence. Pure scattering of nothing. Here is the 18z GEFS 96 hour snow for day 11 to 15. Not bad at all for this range over a four day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 18z GEFS 96 hour snow for day 11 to 15. Not bad at all for this range over a four day period. If accurate, no, it's not bad. But the Gefs are almost always too snowy. 12z Eps thru entire 360 hrs is really bad, and I see no reason to think it's wrong vs Gefs since Gefs have in 1 run just caved to the Eps on days 15-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If accurate, no, it's not bad. But the Gefs are almost always too snowy. 12z Eps thru entire 360 hrs is really bad, and I see no reason to think it's wrong vs Gefs since Gefs have in 1 run just caved to the Eps on days 15-16. I’m not worried about day 15 or 16 caving with the good look that it is showing as I described above. Snow maps will respond once a specific threat is identified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The 12z EPS teleconnections are all screaming that the advertised pattern is on track as we get towards day 10. Every index is forecast to go right where we want them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 @MAG5035 what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern change potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The 0z Euro this run has a Winter Storm chance on the 13th with a snowstorm for northern PA & a mix changing to snow for southern PA as the low transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The 6z GFS has a storm getting to the coast on the 16th with a CTP snow chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 this morning...a reminder that temperature wise winter is still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 38 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 22 this morning...a reminder that temperature wise winter is still here. 24 here. I tried to suggest that last week. The CMC has colder LSV locations in the teen's multiple times over the next several days. Ironically the warmest panels are mid-month Feb with highs in the 50's and low's above freezing. The GFS this AM was 5 degrees too warm AT MDT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 24 here. I tried to suggest that last week. The CMC has colder LSV locations in the teen's multiple times over the next several days. Ironically the warmest panels are mid-month Feb with highs in the 50's and low's above freezing. The GFS this AM was 5 degrees too warm AT MDT! MDT currently sitting at 27 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: MDT currently sitting at 27 degrees. Yep, GFS was 31 at this time of the AM. MDT actually got down to 26. The coldest reading at MDT since Jan 22nd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 44 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 22 this morning...a reminder that temperature wise winter is still here. The Op runs that I posted are starting to show that Winter is still here & coming back to hopefully produce Winter Storm chances again by mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Speaking of 26 at MDT, the current lowest temp during this Met Winter has been 14 in January. That stands as a tie for the second warmest Met Winter low temp in MDT history with 3-4 weeks to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 @mitchnick should be happy to see that the 0z ensembles are all looking good at the end of their 15/16 day runs. The EPS backed off on the week ridging “yellow”. Now the closest yellow is in western Iowa at the end of the EPS. All 3 continue to show strong Greenland blocking with the STJ undercutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Speaking of 26 at MDT, the current lowest temp during this Met Winter has been 14 in January. That stands as a tie for the second warmest Met Winter low temp in MDT history with 3-4 weeks to go. How is Dubois looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: How is Dubois looking? I will have to visit Dubois some time to see what all the fuss is about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: How is Dubois looking? I think my back yard low for the year so far is 8. Maybe I’ll get the chance to beat that once snow cover returns this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Op runs that I posted are starting to show that Winter is still here & coming back to hopefully produce Winter Storm chances again by mid month. While we're all counting on a snow storm to bring joy to the forum. One thing we haven't had for along time is an ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: While we're all counting on a snow storm to bring joy to the forum. One thing we haven't had for along time is an ice storm. That's one thing that Tamaqua was pretty immune to. We've had them, but none were of any significance. On a side note, you guys need to come out to Flagstaff this week. All the globals give them at least 20+ inches of snow this week. Every day from Tuesday through the weekend has at least moderate chances for falling snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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