RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 The latest GRAF model looks legit. Just look at what the model does vs what he tweeted since he is a DC TV Met. But it's the model that the TV stations use. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 4 hours ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z Euro was a step back for us. Limited QPF and marginal temps persist. 00z GFS came in the best yet. But it is still a nail-biter situation around RIC due to marginal surface temps. Will need good rates to bring the cold down. Otherwise, we will waste the limited QPF we have. Verbatim, most of the precip stays north of RIC, at least this run of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 9 hours ago, RIC Airport said: @ldub23 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Trending not in our favor it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Never is. Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 7 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Never is. Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios. Yeah, pretty much. I knew this one wasn't gonna do much for us. I'd be surprised if even 30 miles N of Richmond getm uch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 7 minutes ago, RVAman said: Yeah, pretty much. I knew this one wasn't gonna do much for us. I'd be surprised if even 30 miles N of Richmond getm uch Agree. Best snow may be north of Fredericksburg from the way it looks now. I'm expecting maybe an inch up here in western Caroline. Models trending more north. Mountains may eat up some of our qpf too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 Sketics and anyone else worried and concerned, well that's why the panic thread exists. Meanwhile, thee 12Z HRRR, has a nice bad of snow between 2am and 4am Saturday morning across the Richmond metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Sketics and anyone else worried and concerned, well that's why the panic thread exists. Meanwhile, thee 12Z HRRR, has a nice bad of snow between 2am and 4am Saturday morning across the Richmond metro area. I don't think it's panicking, just the realistic side of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 20 minutes ago, RVAman said: I don't think it's panicking, just the realistic side of our area. Yes, and we've been through plenty of marginal events and busts. Just saying it's not over until it's over. But I agree. I wish things were better, but I'm just trying to be positive, as the HRRR, which changes every hour, is only one model. The end goal is for all of us to get a decent snowfall, so we're all here with curiosity and still tracking this threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Nam came a little south 12z. And actually getting closer to its range haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Nam came a little south 12z. And actually getting closer to its range haha. @JFLETCHER, you're definitely in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 No golf at Pendleton in Ladysmith Saturday haha! Great course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Looks like Kings Dominion and North just a hair will be in the prime spot for the best spot locally to Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Let’s see if GFS and Euro can get 40-50 miles more south at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think? Yes a tad south from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 20 minutes ago, RVAman said: GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think? 14 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Yes a tad south from 6z I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I like it. Winter is mocking me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 12 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Winter is mocking me. It's never over until it's actually over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 The best lift is still north around the i-66 corridor. I am not sure if the rates farther south, mainly south of Ashland will be able to overcome the marginal surface temperatures accumulate. QPF is very limited so anything wasted makes it even more difficult south of Caroline County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The best lift is still north around the i-66 corridor. I am not sure if the rates farther south, mainly south of Ashland will be able to overcome the marginal surface temperatures accumulate. QPF is very limited so anything wasted makes it even more difficult south of Caroline County. Are you suggesting rates wouldn't be good enough to have any accumulation South of Caroline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Most likely still Snow Globe TV for most of the area, if your up in the Early Moring hours.... Temps prob wont even get to freezing in most of the area... So wherever the banding sets up is going to be key if we get any accumulation...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 57 minutes ago, RVAman said: Are you suggesting rates wouldn't be good enough to have any accumulation South of Caroline? GFS has precip arriving Friday night between 10pm and 11pm. It has the heaviest QPF between 1am and 4am. Between 1am and 4am, surface temperatures go from around 36 to 33 degrees in the Richmond metro area. However, temperatures are below freezing at the 925mb and 850mb levels. To overcome air temperatures above freezing at the surface and for the snow to accumulate, we will need heavy precip rates to bring down the colder air aloft. Otherwise, the snow would just melt on contact. It could even fall as rain the whole time if it's too light. That's because it may not be heavy enough to bring down the below-freezing air at 925mb and higher. Will need to watch the trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 @RVAman,The colder air aloft is not as deep before 1am, but that's before the best precip comes in, so it won't matter as much. But, this suggests that there is a higher likelihood that any precipitation will be rain before the heavier rates arrive around 1am. 10pm 925mb temps 1am 925mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 This is the map AKQ put out this morning. Best chance of 1" or more is north of about Ruther Glen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15, 2024 Author Share Posted February 15, 2024 The Euro has the low tracking along the KY/TN border and then once it gets to VA, it takes an abrupt jump north from about Bristol to Roanoke to Wallops Island by 4am Saturday morning. Not understanding what is making the low take that last minute jump north instead of following the same trajectory. The GFS keeps the low along the VA/NC border, really northern NC, which makes more sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 Another NOVA win.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 EURO might be a blip. HRRR 12z short range is saying we get 2-3 inches . Doesn’t jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15, 2024 Share Posted February 15, 2024 NAM is pulling this thing far far far away from us. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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