Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[chris624wx]

Quote

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong winter storm impacts the region later
tonight into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and
drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major
marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south
and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp
gradient in total snowfall amounts, roughly along the US-360
corridor (through the Richmond Metro).

Still a tricky forecast this afternoon, with still (substantial)
differences between models in regards to snow amounts/locations. The
current dilemma is that we are still seeing large differences
between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian vs some of the high-res guidance such
as the HRRR/NAM. The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian have actually shifted some
of the higher snow amounts/QPF a bit further to the north compared
to earlier runs. Meanwhile, the NAM and HRRR (12z) keep the heaviest
snow/QPF well south of a majority of the forecast area, with the
HRRR being the most extreme, keeping the almost all of the snow
confined to NE NC or south (this does not seem realistic). For now
the forecast resembles a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian (and all
respective ensembles) as well as the NBM. The forecast shows 8 to
12" across southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina (locally
12"+ far southern Bertie, NC), tapering down to 4 to 7" across south
central VA over to the western Tidewater over to the VA Eastern
Shore. The aforementioned locations are where a Winter Storm Warning
is in effect. Across the Richmond Metro up into central VA and over
to the Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore, there will be a very sharp
cutoff in amounts, potentially across just one county. For now,
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the
aforementioned areas due to the potential for 1 to 3" of
accumulation. It should be noted that typically during these set
ups, somewhere on the NW side tends to "overperform" in regards to
snow amounts, but we will be unable to pin this down until the event
is beginning to unfold. The snow forecast confidence remains below
average for this time range. As for timing of the snow, expect the
snow to begin late tonight into Saturday morning from SW to NE, with
the heaviest snowfall rates Saturday afternoon-evening into Saturday
night. Snow comes to an end from west to east later Saturday night
into Sunday morning as low pressure pulls away with all snow ending
by early Sunday afternoon (at the latest).

As low pressure moves up the coast and rapidly strengthens, the
pressure gradient will also tighten across the area. As a result,
winds will increase Saturday evening into Saturday night, with gusts
of 50 to 60 mph expected along the immediate coast of the
ocean/Chesapeake Bay and 40 to 50 mph across much of the eastern
forecast area. High Wind Warnings have been issued along the coast
from Currituck, NC to Virginia Beach/Norfolk, and up the Eastern
Shore of VA. Wind Advisories buffer the High Wind Warnings and
extend back to This combination of snow and strong winds will result
in the potential for whiteout conditions. There was some discussion
in regards to blizzard headlines, but ultimately the confidence is
still not there in regards to snow rates/amounts. Instead, we are
messaging whiteout conditions and to avoid travel in the Winter
Storm Warning.

Please keep continue to keep a close eye on the forecast over the
next 24 hours, with forecast confidence remaining below average for
this timeframe. Just a small shift in the coastal low will have
drastic impacts to the final snowfall amounts.

Wakefield expressing high uncertainty even this close to the event. Can't say they're alone in that! 

[jlewis1111]

18z RGEM actually looks like the best solution imo 

[ldub23]

When DT posts his lat call map can someone send it to me on a private message? Thanks

[Stormpc]

He won't post his last call Till 9:00 p.m. tomorrow night.

[DJnVa]

3 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

He won't post his last call Till 9:00 p.m. tomorrow night.

He said 5 pm. 

[jlewis1111]

5 minutes ago, DJnVa said:

He said 5 pm. 

That means 11pm lol ha

[Deep Creek]

5 minutes ago, DJnVa said:

He said 5 pm. 

The extra 4 hours are devoted to making all the incomprehensible intersecting lines on his forecast maps.

[jlewis1111]

18z Goofus running lets see

[EverythingisEverything]

I've never seen anything like what these models have been doing.   God Bless the local mets.  I'm not sure what VB is getting tomorrow lol.  

[Deep Creek]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not lurking in ya'lls space to troll, but the SREFs are terrible. What's remarkable about it is that it used to be considered a usable tool. Only look for entertainment. Some members have it dumping snow in D.C.. Barring the coup of the century, it's a toss.

I couldn’t believe it’s still showing those crazy snow amounts this afternoon. 8 members for RIC in the 17-26” range….bitch please! Like you said, def entertainment value. I will say I refer to it for non-winter storms to get an idea for its qpf depiction. For straight rain storms, I feel like it’s usually in the ballpark. 

[jlewis1111]

anyone have the 18z gfs snow clown map?

[Stormpc]

Just now, jlewis1111 said:

anyone have the 18z gfs snow clown map?

Its out in the SE forum. 

[Stormpc]

Mixed feelings. Gets it done for the south side into my area but doesn't extend that far up the peninsula Beyond Williamsburg

[jlewis1111]

Just now, Stormpc said:

Its out in the SE forum. 

yup just saw 2-4 around here but what ratio is that map doing?

[jlewis1111]

[chris624wx]

3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Globals vs CAMs right now...

[benjammin]

I'm in Lynchburg but this storm is making Richmond and Lynchburg work awfully hard to get 1-4 inches of pixie dust.

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[wasnow215]

12 minutes ago, benjammin said:

I'm in Lynchburg but this storm is making Richmond and Lynchburg work awfully hard to get 1-4 inches of pixie dust.

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We will see about that and how the models are handling the low placement etc. Won't know til nowcasting. 

[wasnow215]

Both AI's slightly north-18z

[overcautionisbad]

DT last call

[overcautionisbad]

I think it's clear on most models now Richmond will get 1 to 2 inches