RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 42 minutes ago, RVAman said: That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. This is a rain to snow scenario. For the immediate Richmond area, surface temps are above freezing, but since it's below freezing at the 850mb level the precip should fall as snow after about 10pm Friday for areas north of about Petersburg. With good rates, the snow could still stick especially with the time of day, but the surface temps won't make this a 10:1 ratio like the snow maps show. Best rates look to be (per Euro) between 2am and 4am. Precip could be over before sunrise. This is the ONE hour QPF amount, heaviest is between 3am and 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Ty! It's why this thread exists so we don't have to rely on finding Richmond or even Tidewater on the maps often posted in the forum's LR thread, because it's DC centric. Some posters recognize there are posters that live outside of the DMV, but most don't or care. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 If we get 3-4 inches on Saturday I'll gladly buy everyone on this thread a beer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, RVAman said: If we get 3-4 inches on Saturday I'll gladly buy everyone on this thread a beer. New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol Long range weeklies have been awful in the winter for the past 6 years. I’m not trying to start a big disco but why is that part of weather science going backwards seemingly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 @ldub23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 This is from AKQ's afternoon disccussion. .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: -The potential for accumulating snow early Saturday morning has increased across northern portions of the area (roughly from Louisa to Salisbury), where 1-2" of snow is in the forecast. -There is the potential for a light accumulating snow as far south as the Richmond Metro, but confidence in this is lower. -There is still some uncertainty regarding the track and strength of the system, so expect changes in the forecast in the coming days. The surface high becomes suppressed to our SE on Thursday while a fast moving clipper system tracks well to our north. This system will drag a cold front through the area Thursday night. Return southerly flow will allow temps to rise into the upper 50s-lower 60s in most areas west of the Ches Bay...although it will struggle to get out of the upper 40s-lower 50s on the ern shore. While there will be an increase in clouds on Thu in advance of the front, no precipitation is expected. Clearing Thu night with winds becoming W then NW behind the front. Lows will fall into the mid 30s-mid 40s. The main focus of the period is the increasing potential for accumulating snow across the northern half of the area Friday night into Saturday morning...as a fast moving shortwave in zonal flow aloft tracks over the area. No wx concerns ahead of the system on Fri with increasing clouds and highs in the 50s in most areas (mid- upper 40s on the ern shore). The GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/EPS ensembles are in much better agreement than they were yesterday with respect to the track of the system. At this time, model consensus shows the system tracking across southern VA, with the most likely timing for precip between 10 PM-6 AM (before ending by sunrise as the system moves offshore). While the system will be fast moving...there will likely be a 3-6 hour period of light to moderate snow north of the low track, with light rain (with amounts under 0.10") in SE VA and NE NC. Despite temperatures falling to 32-33F, the snow will likely come down at a decent enough rate (thanks to fairly strong 850-700mb frontogenesis to the N of the low track). Also, the fact that this event will occur at night will help a bit with accums despite the marginal temps. Right now, the forecast calls for 1-2" of snow in areas from roughly Louisa-Salisbury...to less than 1" in the RIC Metro...with no snow at all south of a Farmville-Hopewell line. There is the potential for localized amounts greater than 2" in the most persistent bands...but too early to reflect this in the forecast. Of course, there will be changes in the forecast track and strength of the system during the next couple of days. Any travel issues Sat AM will be short-lived as the snow will quickly melt on Saturday with highs rising well into the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: New LR weeklies look great for last week of March…lol 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Long range weeklies have been awful in the winter for the past 6 years. I’m not trying to start a big disco but why is that part of weather science going backwards seemingly? The models seem to behave differently yearly, but they've not been good this year. I can't trust the weeklies next year. I don't know if we've seen a pattern go poof so fast, especially when almost everyone harped it up, even the usual skeptics. It's disappointing that Richmond has had over 18" of rain since the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and only 0.7" of snow out of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 18Z Euro was a step back for us. Limited QPF and marginal temps persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 The latest GRAF model looks legit. Just look at what the model does vs what he tweeted since he is a DC TV Met. But it's the model that the TV stations use. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z Euro was a step back for us. Limited QPF and marginal temps persist. 00z GFS came in the best yet. But it is still a nail-biter situation around RIC due to marginal surface temps. Will need good rates to bring the cold down. Otherwise, we will waste the limited QPF we have. Verbatim, most of the precip stays north of RIC, at least this run of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 hours ago, RIC Airport said: @ldub23 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Trending not in our favor it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Never is. Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Never is. Tried to remain quiet as to not be a Deb but shoot, we rarely score on clippers in the best scenarios. Yeah, pretty much. I knew this one wasn't gonna do much for us. I'd be surprised if even 30 miles N of Richmond getm uch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, RVAman said: Yeah, pretty much. I knew this one wasn't gonna do much for us. I'd be surprised if even 30 miles N of Richmond getm uch Agree. Best snow may be north of Fredericksburg from the way it looks now. I'm expecting maybe an inch up here in western Caroline. Models trending more north. Mountains may eat up some of our qpf too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Sketics and anyone else worried and concerned, well that's why the panic thread exists. Meanwhile, thee 12Z HRRR, has a nice bad of snow between 2am and 4am Saturday morning across the Richmond metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Sketics and anyone else worried and concerned, well that's why the panic thread exists. Meanwhile, thee 12Z HRRR, has a nice bad of snow between 2am and 4am Saturday morning across the Richmond metro area. I don't think it's panicking, just the realistic side of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, RVAman said: I don't think it's panicking, just the realistic side of our area. Yes, and we've been through plenty of marginal events and busts. Just saying it's not over until it's over. But I agree. I wish things were better, but I'm just trying to be positive, as the HRRR, which changes every hour, is only one model. The end goal is for all of us to get a decent snowfall, so we're all here with curiosity and still tracking this threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nam came a little south 12z. And actually getting closer to its range haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Nam came a little south 12z. And actually getting closer to its range haha. @JFLETCHER, you're definitely in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 No golf at Pendleton in Ladysmith Saturday haha! Great course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like Kings Dominion and North just a hair will be in the prime spot for the best spot locally to Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Let’s see if GFS and Euro can get 40-50 miles more south at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think? Yes a tad south from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, RVAman said: GFS looked someone decent for a wide 1-2" I think? 14 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Yes a tad south from 6z I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I like it. Winter is mocking me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Winter is mocking me. It's never over until it's actually over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 The best lift is still north around the i-66 corridor. I am not sure if the rates farther south, mainly south of Ashland will be able to overcome the marginal surface temperatures accumulate. QPF is very limited so anything wasted makes it even more difficult south of Caroline County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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