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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion


RIC Airport
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It’s funny though when the gfs shows snow every third model run or so we don’t believe it which is fine. But it’s too early for 2/18-19 to automatically think too warm or too suppressed will happen either. Everything is still on the table 9 days out.

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35 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It’s funny though when the gfs shows snow every third model run or so we don’t believe it which is fine. But it’s too early for 2/18-19 to automatically think too warm or too suppressed will happen either. Everything is still on the table. days out.

The CMC is the closest to what the Euro showed at 12z.

ORF1.thumb.png.ed0ccc3a98f9260cb95e8f526bc9f4d5.png

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As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-1707523200-1708041600-1708257600-40.thumb.gif.bf6f4dec1179ee9ce913c481a48847e0.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-shenendoah-total_snow_10to1-8430400.thumb.png.1c5e990eaf476df6eee529b8ee17ccb7.png

The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-8819200.thumb.png.a7f72ad117bc49870c97800b9b22c162.png

median.thumb.png.40240052334f92cff7ed8f6f00edde93.png

MEMBERS.thumb.png.e7e096010b35beb460bb768b4c157905.png

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27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Today's 12z EPS maps are the best we've seen before the mid-January threats. It's been frustrating, for sure, so we'll see. But, there is still a decent signal for the 17th-25th.

MEAN.thumb.png.390de3fcd43ff433a9d72569d43226ac.pngMEDIAN.thumb.png.55de85de58b65fb12958d9c02b820cb9.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-8862400.thumb.png.03dbd6cdc1098a4edf995a5a1a09e4f8.png26-50.thumb.png.1fc14bd49bffc4163043b838690fc216.png

RIC.thumb.png.9613901f4a7cf83e13bbc987f399bddc.pngOFP.thumb.png.b3fb223e1f8bb4481cbd9613676e6e41.png1976761702_WestPoint.thumb.png.e4611cd9d624f200830e2af6569f455e.pngPHF.thumb.png.04032c2f2ac8a2d98b965867aef0f8d3.pngORF.thumb.png.627fac1bd870906e1483d2f701658aab.pngNTU.thumb.png.f0b5ec116ba26a62dfb8687f57fec9a9.png

download.thumb.png.599643bd6d338c47866c3fa7bf7c226d.png

P10 please that’s all I ask for this winter…lol

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1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-1707523200-1708041600-1708257600-40.thumb.gif.bf6f4dec1179ee9ce913c481a48847e0.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-shenendoah-total_snow_10to1-8430400.thumb.png.1c5e990eaf476df6eee529b8ee17ccb7.png

The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-8819200.thumb.png.a7f72ad117bc49870c97800b9b22c162.png

median.thumb.png.40240052334f92cff7ed8f6f00edde93.png

MEMBERS.thumb.png.e7e096010b35beb460bb768b4c157905.png

can you show animation on p10 just for laughs…..lol

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49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

can you show animation on p10 just for laughs…..lol

I can only do the EPS members. Unfortunately, from what I've seen, NCEP doesn't release them. But this is the best I can do. :)

aa.jpg.5c53b894dcb0fce0d9163a86603b25ae.jpga.jpg.aa87104150540406bbe6894d13158cab.jpgb.jpg.bc476b0f044490c53e1a7e3e38238c57.jpgc.jpg.7497ba860a845537697198cee1b86d91.jpgd.jpg.2d871ffd59a2909b5426d7068b1e3fa3.jpge.jpg.bf393f032e41bf64dc67671cd8a76327.jpg

 

Here are some charts from a few places in the bullseye. Widespread 22-34". :wub:

AKQ.thumb.png.1a65a248885efc731992f570b0f84eb0.png351595215_WESTPOINT1.thumb.png.cc896b51857ad18dcc15792861c53641.png

emporia.thumb.png.bbfc7e55be1e1318d9c9919bc4320acd.pngwilliamsburg.thumb.png.4b4bd68864d9753c90daccc9f3bd8e8c.png

TAPPAHANOCK.thumb.png.80b6c3bf589005119423987f2cb8c29f.pngPHF1.thumb.png.031e26bd2c09401d3d1a61ff2030989a.pngOFP1.thumb.png.9a346fa89e9a79e8f5fa88f31708d895.pngRIC1.thumb.png.4cac02d9c4218b580225e987d5e732c0.png

FCI.thumb.png.72a7e17198845a59ff308c874d4318f0.png

PTB.thumb.png.b610cadb63ad4ecaf1c797c115b71c66.png

 

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6 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Probably too soon to say though. Surface maps not good but 7+ days out are virtually meaningless. 

still no sign of  winter at  18z

 

JB remains  optimistic though how  can winter  come  back when it  never got  here?

 

 

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

still no sign of  winter at  18z

 

JB remains  optimistic though how  can winter  come  back when it  never got  here?

 

 

A lot of these people on X don't speak for our area. And personally, I'm not a fan of that dude, but that's a different discussion. 

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5 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

12z Euro had signs as did ensembles.  Lots of time 

GFS was suppressed with the southern stream wave, which the below was as far north as the precip got. Just sharing in case people wondered, I'm sure this won't be the final solution, but quite a change over the last 24 hours. I like that it's still south. Plenty of things can make this work out in our favor with wiggle room on the models. 

gfs-deterministic-norfolk-instant_ptype-8300800.thumb.png.ae8aeca170a8a0a8be7877ec70946883.pnggfs-deterministic-norfolk-total_snow_10to1-8430400.thumb.png.434f3d08271d65bf4539b27439a573dd.png

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4 hours ago, RVAman said:

6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means.

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha.

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Im still hoping for  1 inch

12z GFS tries to give us a little snow from the n/s wave, but the s/s wave doesn't really amplify and stays south of us before moving out to sea. Looks more like a cold front now, that gives all our precip.

pppppppp.thumb.gif.d2e023546c178ee94d175855e55b29bc.gif

 

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The Canadian is faster with the n/s wave and tries to give us snow showers with that next Saturday. It's much slower with the s/s wave so it amplifies and comes up the coast as a Miller A storm next Tuesday into Wednesday before sliding off of Hatteras. 

pppppppp.thumb.gif.62a8cffdce4a1368f7ddab5d99ca03b4.gifgem-all-shenendoah-snow_48hr-8516800.thumb.png.cd6900a5ff17db1416a445a41ebad1af.png

 

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24 minutes ago, RVAman said:

This still just doesn't look good for us. Some time out, sure. Cold air just still isn't there.

We are grasping at straws. As long as the models show different solutions, I think there is still a chance. But I wouldn't bet on it with how this winter has gone.  

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Looks like we’re gonna have to wait until early mid March to possibly get a last-minute save.  Looking at the indexes,  everything is  reversing and forecasted to become warm..  PNA is going negative and that’s gonna kill the Pacific.   I’ve been really trying to remain positive, but it’s tough. The forecasted pattern a couple weeks ago was absolutely epic but  there was too much just warm air in the country.  MJO has stalled in  7  which is a warms phase and never makes  it to phase 8.  I won’t trust the LR weekiles anymore….lol

Hope I am wrong and we get something next week.  

 

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12 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

EPS had a signal around the 24th so if there is a glimmer of hope, that is it. But only a handful of members so take that fwiw.

Glimmer is accurate.  Looks like it's OVER to me. Especially SE of RIC.

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