Stormpc Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Everything looks to be staying the course to a flip back to more favorable conditions after the first week of next month. Not seeing terrible cold, but sufficient enough in the source region over Eastern Canada and Greenland to get us what we need. Especially Richmond and North. We do a lot better when we get those Strong high pressure systems pressing that fresh cold air down on NE winds without having it modify while traveling through thousands of miles of Midwestern Plains and the Continental Divide across the appalachians. Back door fronts and cold air damming looks to be a possibility going forward. Something to watch. Without getting crazy technical. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 mild days thru Friday then back to near normal to slightly above. Definitely not the torch advertised a few days ago. We'll see how mid or late next week shakes out but not seeing that push of widespread 60s/70s like we saw progged. More of a gradual step back down then we are back in business. Love the Eastern Canada cold/High pressing down. Maybe a southern storm track or overrunning set up late in the period. NOT terrible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 Well, it hit 70°F at RIC and ORF today. We certainly got way more sunshine than even I expected. I would argue today through Friday is a torch even though record highs are in the mid-upper 70s. However, the low temperature at RIC will struggle to drop below 60°F the next couple of nights, which will easily break the record-high minimum for the dates and also rival the highest ever observed in the entire month. This will also drive the daily departure from average to the +20 to +25 range. EPS still has us going back to more reasonable temps after Saturday. I am not sold on snow the 30th-1st, even though there have been some signals. Meanwhile, the period between the 5th and 10th must be watched more closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 34 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Well, it hit 70°F at RIC and ORF today. We certainly got way more sunshine than even I expected. I would argue today through Friday is a torch even though record highs are in the mid-upper 70s. However, the low temperature at RIC will struggle to drop below 60°F the next couple of nights, which will easily break the record-high minimum for the dates and also rival the highest ever observed in the entire month. This will also drive the daily departure from average to the +20 to +25 range. EPS still has us going back to more reasonable temps after Saturday. I am not sold on snow the 30th-1st, even though there have been some signals. Meanwhile, the period between the 5th and 10th must be watched more closely. It’s actually really enjoyable now. Love the warm break. Calm before the big pattern change. Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th. I couldn’t draw up a better pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: It’s actually really enjoyable now. Love the warm break. Calm before the big pattern change. Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th. I couldn’t draw up a better pattern. Very happy to see they are consistent. I think we are also on the verge of witnessing the operational runs head in that direction. There was also a nice uptick in the snowfall in the last couple of days. Richmond was at 4.4" on Monday, 5.6" now, and I suspect it will continue to increase. There will be an updated snow chart tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 hours ago, Conway7305 said: It’s actually really enjoyable now. Love the warm break. Calm before the big pattern change. Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th. I couldn’t draw up a better pattern. Today's 6z GFS is one hell of a WEENIE run for us in the lower Mid Atlantic. Nice to see. Won't shake out that way but better than what we have been seeing all winter. Back to tracking!!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 43 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Today's 6z GFS is one hell of a WEENIE run for us in the lower Mid Atlantic. Nice to see. Won't shake out that way but better than what we have been seeing all winter. Back to tracking!!! Yep! Big time run for us validating the pattern change at least and ahead of schedule. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Yep! Big time run for us validating the pattern change at least and ahead of schedule. Several chances ICON. perfect low track just not cold enough as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 The 6z GFS was great, but I only get excited when I see consistency and ensemble support. And it was night and day from its 00z run, which I was up for, but I didn't notice anything remotely interesting. As I said yesterday, the 5th to 10th period must be watched more closely, but it's still too far out to take anything seriously. I am happy we "see" signals for February because the Euro weeklies/GEFS extended are nice and we want to start seeing the operational and ensembles transition to the advertised mid-February to March pattern soon. Also, @ldub23, we already established that the 31st/1st is not our storm. When you look at the flow and the track of that energy, along with a marginal airmass, it just makes sense. Plus, there was never any ensemble support for that event. And lastly, I personally put little faith in models like the ICON and CMC, they don't have a good track record for leading the way with snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: The 6z GFS was great, but I only get excited when I see consistency and ensemble support. And it was night and day from its 00z run, which I was up for, but I didn't notice anything remotely interesting. As I said yesterday, the 5th to 10th period must be watched more closely, but it's still too far out to take anything seriously. I am happy we "see" signals for February because the Euro weeklies/GEFS extended are nice and we want to start seeing the operational and ensembles transition to the advertised mid-February to March pattern soon. Also, @ldub23, we already established that the 31st/1st is not our storm. When you look at the flow and the track of that energy, along with a marginal airmass, it just makes sense. Plus, there was never any ensemble support for that event. And lastly, I personally put little faith in models like the ICON and CMC, they don't have a good track record for leading the way with snowstorms. Yep, 12z went back to absolutely nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 There's going to be some wild rides and differences every 6 hours. Yes consistency is lacking. I still like that second week of February benchmark where things should flip. Should start showing up real soon though consistently. We hope. Haven't looked at the euro but it's running now so I'll see it later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 So, looking at the 12Z EPS, we can see why February 5th to 10th is a period of interest. There were a few hits, but mostly nothing. Hopefully, the hits increase in the days ahead, particularly as we get later in the month. Interestingly, a couple of the hits were HUGE. But, that's also why the 50th percentile map showed nothing, because only a couple of the members (looking at #47) are responsible for why the mean is as high as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: So, looking at the 12Z EPS, we can see why February 5th to 10th is a period of interest. There were a few hits, but mostly nothing. Hopefully, the hits increase in the days ahead, particularly as we get later in the month. Interestingly, a couple of the hits were HUGE. But, that's also why the 50th percentile map showed nothing, because only a couple of the members (looking at #47) are responsible for why the mean is as high as it is. Some HECS hits in there, nice!! I know it will change but good to see some big outputs being so far out. That time frame is before the pattern change really occurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Some HECS hits in there, nice!! I know it will change but good to see some big outputs being so far out. That trim frame is before the pattern change really occurs. Yup, and you know I had to look at #47. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 BTW, the euro weeklies are running now, new maps and snow charts I'll post them when it's done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yup, and you know I had to look at #47. If only that would verify…haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Things still look on track, with the ~10th and beyond being the most favorable. The snow mean is a slight tick down, but it's typical for slight fluctuations from run to run. Snow charts are still processing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 25 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Things still look on track, with the ~10th and beyond being the most favorable. The snow mean is a slight tick down, but it's typical for slight fluctuations from run to run. Snow charts are still processing. Yeah, will fluctuate a lot between runs. LR Snowmaps are just an idea not super accurate or personally worried about . One big storm will change it. The pattern still looks great through March 11th. We basically will have a month plus of opportunities hopefully. Love the split flow pattern and active STJ . Haven't seen that at all this winter or past few winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Snow charts are still processing. Updated charts as promised, mostly 15th and later with hits. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The gfs taketh away and the gfs once again giveth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: The gfs taketh away and the gfs once again giveth The GFS will continue to fluctuate beyond 200 hours from run to run. But, as discussed, the signals are nice to see. The 18z GEFS did show some support, the below goes from the 3rd thru the 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Meanwhile, we are torching. The high today at Richmond was 71°F, and the low was only 62°F, which ties the highest low temperature recorded in January. That puts the daily average at 67°F, which is +29 degrees above average for the date. All the stations in boxes have their record high minimums in jeopardy for today and tomorrow. Even at this late hour, temperature anomalies are around +25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The GFS will continue to fluctuate beyond 200 hours from run to run. But, as discussed, the signals are nice to see. The 18z GEFS did show some support, the below goes from the 3rd thru the 8th. Nice to see threats ahead of anticipated pattern change. If we get threats like this for 5-6 weeks beginning Feb 4th we are bound to score decent/ big from at least one storm. The pacific jet stream will move more equatorial and will easily tap the STJ moisture in split flow. The h5 pattern is beautiful and doesn’t seem to end on extended weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I'm actually impressed how humid it is. Feels like Midsummer outside. I saw bugs today too. That didn't take long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 4 hours ago, Stormpc said: I'm actually impressed how humid it is. Feels like Midsummer outside. I saw bugs today too. That didn't take long. Yeah, it's a shame. I would rather have what we had on this date 24 years ago. One of my favorite snowstorms, RIC had 7-8 consecutive hours of +SN FZ BLSN and there was one hour where the wind gusted higher than the 2016 storm. A very dynamic storm and an all snow event from beginning to end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 In a normal winter this would be a coastal snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 33 minutes ago, ldub23 said: In a normal winter this would be a coastal snowstorm Explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet again for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain well below through the end of the run (Mar 4-12th) The week of Feb 19th is the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the Mid Atlantic of any single week per this run per h5: All checks: Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 41 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: The new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet again for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain well below through the end of the run (Mar 4-12th) The week of Feb 19th is the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the Mid Atlantic of any single week per this run per h5: All checks: Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow): I love it! Really hope it pans out for us, there are quite a few good snowstorms that have hit us between the 10th and 20th of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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