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Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion


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DFW actually tied the record high of 104*F yesterday, overachieving a bit. It was, however, 1 degree off the record maximum low of 82*F

Today's record is also 104*F, which could be tied/broke as well. The record maximum low is 79*F, which is looking to be shattered.

If 105*F+ can happen today through Friday, the recoed from 1980 will be broken. If it just happens Thursday & Friday, the record will be tied.

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12 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW actually tied the record high of 104*F yesterday, overachieving a bit. It was, however, 1 degree off the record maximum low of 82*F

Today's record is also 104*F, which could be tied/broke as well. The record maximum low is 79*F, which is looking to be shattered.

If 105*F+ can happen today through Friday, the recoed from 1980 will be broken. If it just happens Thursday & Friday, the record will be tied.

We did tie the record high of 104*F again today, but didn't quite make it to 105*F.

That being said, in all likelihood, DFW should still tie the 1980 record of 105*F+ days in a year after tomorrow and Friday.

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7 hours ago, Powerball said:

We did tie the record high of 104*F again today, but didn't quite make it to 105*F.

That being said, in all likelihood, DFW should still tie the 1980 record of 105*F+ days in a year after tomorrow and Friday.

^^^Correction: 105*F did happen after making that post.

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On TV last night they said the 103*F at IAH was the warmest temperature this late in the season.  Forecast 104*F today and 105*F tomorrow will obviously become the highest temps this late in the year.  Just are per TV some of the high temp records being broken are from 1980.  Didn't know that year's heat extended into September.

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8 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Thunder initiation and intensity wise, it personally wouldn't surprise me if those series of mid or upper level shortwave troughs starting to come into Texas today and this weekend in the already established northerly mid-upper level flow up there in Eastern TX, are more stout than forecast. Combine that with a cooling column and all this Texas heat/humidity still around.

Given El Niño is definitely in play here, the northerly flow is also connected to the southern jet stream not far off to the northwest.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_230907_12.gif

----------
HRW - ARWv2, CAM this morning is also showing one fairly well-defined 500 MB shortwave moving through Eastern TX all the way through Houston, intact later tomorrow (Friday):

CBFB4664-21EC-4629-9A27-B5F12654FBDC.thumb.jpeg.b64ca36cc100a75a6eb28a771f4d214c.jpeg
 

Moisture aloft should not be a problem in that region tomorrow also.

-----------
Also showing another fairly stout shortwave impulse diving south from DFW - HOU regions early Saturday: 8ADEEF88-6EAF-4F84-BD81-6719E007C0DF.thumb.jpeg.fd99e5b110e0c5b3bacd6f1781cce9c9.jpeg

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

I can see isolated thunderstorms leaving 'orphan anvils' as they die ~ 50 miles to the N o Houston

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3 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:


F38242C6-0C28-4643-AB43-4E067962D112.thumb.png.7a31e7964618d55c3edf5b70a3c7d1bc.png


- Can you also see the bigger signs outside, ongoing just off to your East in Louisiana? B)

Maybe they are farther than 50 miles.  Common sight around Houston, big mature thunderhead getting closer, then the cumulus loses it definition, and then the anvil remains, orphaned by its dead parent thunderstorm.

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Quite the storms heading through Tarrant county atm

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC251-439-090430-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0496.230909T0353Z-230909T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1053 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Johnson County in north central Texas...
  South central Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 1052 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crowley,
  moving southeast at 25 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR AREAS FROM CROWLEY TO BURLESON IN
SOUTHERN TARRANT COUNTY AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY!

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Worth, Burleson, Crowley, Everman, Keene, Joshua, Alvarado,
  Rendon, Edgecliff Village, Cross Timber, Edgecliff, Briaroaks,
  Egan, and Lillian.

This includes Interstate 35W between mile markers 29 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 9745 3267 9734 3249 9715 3240 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 325DEG 21KT 3259 9735

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$
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Quick hitting 6 am t-shower (I was watching HGX radar, it popped up overhead while more storms were E) at 6 this morning rained on my house for 5 minutes w/ two rumbles.  106*F yesterday broke the record from the prior day which broke the record from the prior day of hottest temp/latest in the year.  Only 99* predicted today in Houston.

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Been skunked two days in a row.  Yesterday I saw the lightning and the dark rain curtain, but nothing.  The line then filled in completely once past.  Trying to will storms to the WNW to move E and not SE.  1.7" PW IMBY as compared to the 2" PW to the W suggests another dry day is possible.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2163.html

   Mesoscale Discussion 2163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas affected...north-central Texas.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...

   Valid 192220Z - 192345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A supercell across north-central Texas could pose a large
   hail threat this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell formed on the western periphery of mid-day
   elevated convection which moved east across north-central Texas.
   Given only weak CINH near this storm and its radar depiction over
   the last hour, this storm has likely rooted and is surface based in
   a region with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40+ knots of mid-level
   northwesterly flow (per FWD VWP) has yielded near 50 knots of
   effective shear. This environment will support supercells capable of
   large hail (potentially 2+ inches). If this storm continues to turn
   right, which it has started to do over the last 15 to 30 minutes,
   portions of at least the northern DFW metro area may be impacted by
   large to very large hail this evening. 

   If this storm continues to maintain its current intensity or
   strengthen, an expansion of watch 686 may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/19/2023
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

TXC121-192300-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0511.000000T0000Z-230919T2300Z/
Denton TX-
539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY...

At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Krum, or 9
miles west of Denton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Denton, Corinth, Sanger, Krum, Shady Shores, Ponder, Stony, and
Bolivar.

LAT...LON 3337 9711 3315 9704 3320 9739 3337 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 325DEG 18KT 3323 9729

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Dunn
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Severe Weather StatementNational Weather Service Fort Worth TX539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023TXC121-192300-/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0511.000000T0000Z-230919T2300Z/Denton TX-539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDTFOR NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY...At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Krum, or 9miles west of Denton, moving southeast at 20 mph.HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.SOURCE...Radar indicated.IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to        roofs, siding, and trees.Locations impacted include...Denton, Corinth, Sanger, Krum, Shady Shores, Ponder, Stony, andBolivar.LAT...LON 3337 9711 3315 9704 3320 9739 3337 9738TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 325DEG 18KT 3323 9729HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATEDMAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 INWIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATEDMAX WIND GUST...60 MPH$$Dunn


That cell west of OKC is wild. Moving in a completely different direction
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FWD has bumped highs to 99F and 98F today and tomorrow, and is even talking about a Heat Advisory (although I don't see it has been issued officially yet).

FWIW, will need 1 more 100*F+ day to tie (with 2000) for the most ever in September. DFW is currently tied for 2nd place with 6 days.

EDIT: Heat Advisory just dropped for majority of the CWA (eastern edge of counties excluded) through 7pm Sunday...

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13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

FWD has bumped highs to 99F and 98F today and tomorrow, and is even talking about a Heat Advisory (although I don't see it has been issued officially yet).

FWIW, will need 1 more 100*F+ day to tie (with 2000) for the most ever in September. DFW is currently tied for 2nd place with 6 days.

EDIT: Heat Advisory just dropped for majority of the CWA (eastern edge of counties excluded) through 7pm Sunday...

Oh, and the current record high for today at DFW is 99*F (set in 2005)

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