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Pittsburgh/Western PA Summer 2023


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GFS is toying with the idea of some big late-summer heat next week. A long way to go, but upper 90s or higher seem to be showing up nearly every run. I guess it depends on how far east the ridge comes. The Euro and the ensembles have more garden variety heat as the ridge sits a bit west.

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7 hours ago, TimB said:

GFS is toying with the idea of some big late-summer heat next week. A long way to go, but upper 90s or higher seem to be showing up nearly every run. I guess it depends on how far east the ridge comes. The Euro and the ensembles have more garden variety heat as the ridge sits a bit west.

The GFS advertising big heat?  You don’t say, lol.

Last week Ron Smiley took the bait and mentioned that the end of this week would see 90s.  We need to be within a few days for it to really be possible.  Although, with school starting soon it probably will touch 90 at least once, though the last few years have been nice.

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40 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

The GFS advertising big heat?  You don’t say, lol.

Last week Ron Smiley took the bait and mentioned that the end of this week would see 90s.  We need to be within a few days for it to really be possible.  Although, with school starting soon it probably will touch 90 at least once, though the last few years have been nice.

12z GFS now has cold for next week, lol. It never seems to get closer than 7-8 days or so.

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On 8/11/2023 at 10:25 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting... Exactly normal for the month to date. Technically, there hasn't been a below normal day since August 2 - granted 4 of those days since have been exactly normal.

image.thumb.png.259f5521f69c8e0a3fce8007927802b7.png

Now, up to 12 consecutive days at or above normal. Very good chance today will bring that figure up to 13; however, tomorrow appears to be slightly below normal. If we somehow reach normal tomorrow, the streak will almost certainly end on Friday and Saturday with much cooler low temperatures forecast. Despite having had only 2 below normal days as of the middle of the month, the month-to-date departure only stands at +0.8F, as there have been no dates with significant departures from normal.

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These threaded records are so dumb for Pittsburgh, especially in the summer, when the variability is at a minimum. Summer to date is 34th warmest (of 71 years) at KPIT, so just above the median of all years observed at the International Airport. But in the threaded record, it is 43rd coldest (of 149 years) (or 102nd warmest, as there were a lot of years tied with it).

Adding those 78 years, the ranking drops 68 places! In other words, 68 of the 78 years in the threaded record before PIT existed (from 1875-1952) were warmer than this summer. In the threaded record, it will look like a relatively cool summer at PIT. But in reality, it's actually slightly warmer than the long-term median when you correct for location & elevation of the airport.

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

These threaded records are so dumb for Pittsburgh, especially in the summer, when the variability is at a minimum. Summer to date is 34th warmest (of 71 years) at KPIT, so just above the median of all years observed at the International Airport. But in the threaded record, it is 43rd coldest (of 149 years) (or 102nd warmest, as there were a lot of years tied with it).

Adding those 78 years, the ranking drops 68 places! In other words, 68 of the 78 years in the threaded record before PIT existed (from 1875-1952) were warmer than this summer. In the threaded record, it will look like a relatively cool summer at PIT. But in reality, it's actually slightly warmer than the long-term median when you correct for location & elevation of the airport.

Thanks to June, this summer is running below average.  July and August are only slightly above average.

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I normally am not watching models this time of year. But I had some outside plans this evening and so have been paying attention. Not sure I have ever seen model agreement (and a forecast tied to it) that busted this bad.

Today was pegged to be dry for the last 5 days, and only last night did I see mention of a stray shower. Models (including short term) were bone dry until after dark. I wouldn’t be suprised if I’ve seen 1” of rain already. Would love to see that happen in the winter!

Would also be interesting to see why it was handled so poorly. Looks like these shortwaves diving down were stronger than progged

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Mesoscale Discussion 2042
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

   Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Northern Ohio...western
   Pennsylvania...western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 250133Z - 250300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW656 is likely
   shortly.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of severe storms continues to move
   southward out of Michigan and across Lake Erie. Consensus within
   hi-res guidance is for this line to continue to track southward into
   portions of northern Indiana, northern Ohio, western Pennsylvania,
   western New York within the next couple of hours. Downstream of this
   line, there is a gradient of MLCAPE around 1500-3500 J/kg and deep
   layer shear 35-45 kts. The environment will continue to be
   supportive of severe storms and risk of damaging winds along with
   isolated embedded circulations and a tornado or two. A downstream
   watch will be needed shortly.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41518508 41958507 42108334 42718217 43268107 43227964
               43187928 42957884 42657845 42047859 41647892 41267957
               40838018 40478091 40358120 40378168 40478235 40658301
               40868378 41138471 41518508 

 

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25 minutes ago, TimB said:

@TheClimateChangeris there a way to do an analysis on how much September average dewpoints have risen in, say, 2013-2022 vs. 1990-1999? Anecdotally it seems it’d be at least 5 degrees but that could be a memory hole.

Yes, that can be done. I just did the analysis using the Iowa Environmental Mesonet site. Here is a link that should generate the plot below: Automated Data Plotter (iastate.edu)

September dewpoints have risen substantially over that time frame at PIT, but not 5F. The chart below estimates a slope of +8.4F/century. Note that this data computes average dew point and average temperature by averaging the numbers observed at every hourly observation.

You can also download the raw data to an Excel spreadsheet, which I did. For 1990-1999, the average September temperature was 63.9F, and the average dewpoint was 55.2F. For 2013-2022, the average September temperature was 66.5F, and the average dewpoint was 57.7F. An increase of 2.6F and 2.5F, respectively.

network:PA_ASOS::station:PIT::season:sep::varname:dwpf::agg:mean::year:1990::w:bar::_r:t::dpi:100.png

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