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Tropical Storm Odette


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The signal has been on the guidance for the better part of the week for an upper low to interact with a wave and create a broad system. Steering pattern originally looked to bring this into the East Coast, then recent guidance kicked it out to sea, and now there seems to be a bit of a split between OTS (favored IMO) and some type of retrograde. 

With an invest declared and guidance really focusing on development now, it's time to discuss. 

So discuss :lol: 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on 
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near Port 
Arthur, Texas.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area 
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are 
becoming better organized.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves 
generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles 
north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual 
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to 
northward across the western Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of 
Africa toward the end of the week.  Environment conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves 
generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Tropical Storm Odette
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152021
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's 
potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West.  Odette is
moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this  
general motion is expected to continue into tonight.  A turn toward 
the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to 
begin on Saturday and continue through Monday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. 
Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the 
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday 
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches
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Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152021
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a
new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep
convection.  This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with
a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western
side of the circulation.  Although the convection is being sheared
off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles
that of a tropical cyclone.  An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago
showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center,
thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with
35-kt winds.

With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is
uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt.
Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and
central Canada.  The approach of this trough should cause Odette to
accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the
next few days.  After about day 3, there is significant divergence
among the models.  The GFS ejects the system northeastward and
stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland.  The ECMWF,
UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and
have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5.  For now,
the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on
those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and
HCCA consensus aids.

Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already
underway.  The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where 
water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short 
term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective 
forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear 
strengthening to near 30 kt.  The global models suggest that Odette 
should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity 
models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in 
intensity in 48-60 hours.  The low is then likely to occlude by day 
3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is 
indicated in the official forecast.

Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong 
winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a 
post-tropical cyclone.  Please refer to products from Environment 
Canada for additional information on potential impacts in 
Newfoundland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 36.7N  71.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 38.3N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 39.9N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 41.6N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1800Z 43.6N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  20/0600Z 45.0N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1800Z 46.0N  49.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1800Z 47.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1800Z 47.5N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

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