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Central PA - Summer 2021


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Just now, canderson said:

There's long been a theory that ex-tropical systems once inland can't produce monster tornadoes, but rather spinups (EF 0, mayyyybe a 1). 

That NJ tornado looks like an EF 4 to me. 

When these storms are hurricanes and they are just making landfall the tornados produced are usually weaker. Low end EF2 or lower. When they move inland, weaken to a sloppy low pressure area while transporting deep tropical moisture, and begin interacting with fronts and encountering wind shear is when deeper convection begins to develop and becomes supercellular in nature. Last night was a very good example of that. Stronger, long track tornados associated with severe thunderstorms, torrential rain, a lot of lightning with the stronger storms. The really odd thing of course was location. Eastern PA, NJ, NYC and LI, CT, and Cape Cod. Very rare event obviously.

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19 minutes ago, canderson said:

There's long been a theory that ex-tropical systems once inland can't produce monster tornadoes, but rather spinups (EF 0, mayyyybe a 1). 

That NJ tornado looks like an EF 4 to me. 

 

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well that's exactly what I had been reading about the past few days - the likelihood of spinners was there, but that they would be weak, short-lived, and not pose a significant threat to personal property. That NJ tornado was a bonafide monster. 

It is indeed an extreme rarity to have strong tornadoes associated with a tropical system.  I was reading (but forget where ugh) that if this NJ one is confirmed as an EF4 it would be only the second (maybe first??) ever in recorded US history to be spawned from a tropical storm inland.  Something to that effect.  They are almost always of the short-lived weak rain-wrapped variety.

Edit:  Also, I should add I believe it would be tied for the strongest confirmed tornado in NJ history.

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

All good climate change fodder.  7 of the top ten in the 2000's along with the 5 in the last 6 years.  You can also probably write off the 1901 one as statistical anomaly. 

But then you contrast it with Pittsburgh, and it seems to be the same as most other weather stats here. 8 of our top 10 occurred in the pre-Pittsburgh International era. The longest streak was 70 (1949) with no others above 46. If you limit it to stats observed at PIT (dates back to 1948) the 28 days ending August 31 is #5, just ahead of the streaks in 1988, 2012, and 2020, but falling short of 1995 and 2011 (all of the well-known recent hot summers except 2016). 

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There's long been a theory that ex-tropical systems once inland can't produce monster tornadoes, but rather spinups (EF 0, mayyyybe a 1). 
That NJ tornado looks like an EF 4 to me. 

Maybe on its on but you had ida interacting with a strong frontal boundary with a high thermal gradient that created conditions where she was deepening just as she hit the mid Atlantic


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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

and thats a wrap to met summer.  Some data for you all to chew on.

Here are some rainfall records from Ida:

New Daily Rainfall Records for September 1st:
Harrisburg (MDT): 6.64"Previous: 3.60" in 1952
Altoona (AOO):5.21" Previous: 1.15" in 1952
Johnstown (JST): 3.29"Previous: 0.95" in 1916
Note: Records in 1952 occurred thanks to the remnants of
Hurricane Able.

Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation at Harrisburg:
1. 9.13 1972-06-22
2. 7.71 2011-09-07
3. 6.64 2021-09-01***
4. 5.81 1972-06-21
5. 5.72 2013-10-11

Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation at Altoona:
1. 5.55 2004-09-08
2. 5.28 2004-09-17
3. 5.21 2021-09-01***
4. 5.03 1997-11-07
5. 4.53 1967-09-28

Prelim rankings for August and Summer 2021 (JJA):
Harrisburg: 2nd warmest August; 4th warmest summer
Williamsport: 3rd warmest August; 9th warmest summer

Harrisburg average temperature (JJA)
1. 2020 77.9F
2. 1966 77.6F
3. 2016 77.3F
4. 2021 77.1F***
5. 2010 76.9F

Harrisburg average minimum temperature (JJA)
1. 2020 68.2F
2. 2021 68.1F***
3. 2016 67.9F
4. 2010 67.6F
5. 2005 67.3F

Harrisburg average maximum temperature (JJA)
1.  1966      90.2F
2.  1999      87.7F
3.  2020/1991 87.6F
5.  1943      86.8F
6.  2016      86.7F
7.  1988/1944 86.5F
9.  2002      86.2F
10. 2021      86.1F***

Harrisburg average temperature (Aug)
1. 2016 79.1F
2. 2021 78.3F***

Williamsport average temperature (JJA)
1.  2020/2016 74.4F
3.  1949/1901 74.3F
5.  1900      74.2F
6.  1995/1955 74.0F
8.  2005      73.9F
9.  2021      73.7F***
10. 1991      73.6F

Williamsport average minimum temperature (JJA)
1. 1901      66.2F
2. 1899      64.0F
3. 2005/2021 63.1F***
5. 2016      62.8F

Williamsport average temperature (Aug)
1. 2016 76.1F
2. 1995 75.9F
3. 2021 75.6F***

I was complaining how I haven't been able to open the windows much the past month...well now it makes sense. I knew it was hot every night but didn't know it was the 2nd warmest. Thankfully its supposed to be really cool tonight

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33 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

But then you contrast it with Pittsburgh, and it seems to be the same as most other weather stats here. 8 of our top 10 occurred in the pre-Pittsburgh International era. The longest streak was 70 (1949) with no others above 46. If you limit it to stats observed at PIT (dates back to 1948) the 28 days ending August 31 is #5, just ahead of the streaks in 1988, 2012, and 2020, but falling short of 1995 and 2011 (all of the well-known recent hot summers except 2016). 

I think you guys have more of a station issue than we do but I guess you can turn this around and look at it another way.  Comparing where each station falls in the top ten of hottest, are any recent years in the top ten of coldest? 

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@canderson

Who won the contest?

These are the entires ... from a glance it looks like @losetoa6, @Itstrainingtime and @Bubbler86 were closest to the stations. But again I'm not a numbers guy so err to anyone who is!

canderson
Harrisburg 4.2"
Lancaster 5.1" 
York 5.2"
Tamaqua 2.9" 
Williamsport 2.9" 
State College 3.1" 
Chambersburg 5.4"  
Clearfield 1.3"

itstrainingtime
Harrisburg 4.97"
Lancaster 6.09"
York 5.88"
Tamaqua 5.02"
Williamsport 1.96"
State College 2.77"
Chambersburg 5.41"
Clearfield 1.66" 

Bubbler86
Harrisburg 7.1"
Lancaster 6.3" 
York 5.7"
Tamaqua 5.7" 
Williamsport 4.6" 
State College 4.8" 
Chambersburg 6.2"  
Clearfield 4.4"

caveman
Harrisburg:  3.25"
Lancaster:  2.75"
York:  3.10"
Tamaqua:  4.75"
Williamsport:  1.75"
State College: 2.25"
Chambersburg:  4.00"
Clearfield: 1.50"

paweather5
Harrisburg:  8.5
Lancaster:  6 northern,  southern 3 to 4.
York:  northern York 8, southern 4 to 5.
Tamaqua:  7
Williamsport:  2.5
State College: 2.5
Chambersburg:  8 
Clearfield: 3

losetoa6
Harrisburg:  6.9"
Lancaster:  5.8"
York:  6.7"
West York : 7.1"
Tamaqua:  5.4"
Williamsport:  2.7"
State College: 5.0"
Chambersburg:  6.8"
Clearfield: 3.2"
Gettysburg : 6.0"
Carlisle: 6.6"
Dillsburg: 6.2"
Highest lollie ( 9.6")
MBY: 4.7"

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19 minutes ago, canderson said:

These are the entires ... from a glance it looks like @losetoa6, @Itstrainingtime and @Bubbler86 were closest to the stations. But again I'm not a numbers guy so err to anyone who is!

canderson
Harrisburg 4.2"
Lancaster 5.1" 
York 5.2"
Tamaqua 2.9" 
Williamsport 2.9" 
State College 3.1" 
Chambersburg 5.4"  
Clearfield 1.3"

itstrainingtime
Harrisburg 4.97"
Lancaster 6.09"
York 5.88"
Tamaqua 5.02"
Williamsport 1.96"
State College 2.77"
Chambersburg 5.41"
Clearfield 1.66" 

Bubbler86
Harrisburg 7.1"
Lancaster 6.3" 
York 5.7"
Tamaqua 5.7" 
Williamsport 4.6" 
State College 4.8" 
Chambersburg 6.2"  
Clearfield 4.4"

caveman
Harrisburg:  3.25"
Lancaster:  2.75"
York:  3.10"
Tamaqua:  4.75"
Williamsport:  1.75"
State College: 2.25"
Chambersburg:  4.00"
Clearfield: 1.50"

paweather5
Harrisburg:  8.5
Lancaster:  6 northern,  southern 3 to 4.
York:  northern York 8, southern 4 to 5.
Tamaqua:  7
Williamsport:  2.5
State College: 2.5
Chambersburg:  8 
Clearfield: 3

losetoa6
Harrisburg:  6.9"
Lancaster:  5.8"
York:  6.7"
West York : 7.1"
Tamaqua:  5.4"
Williamsport:  2.7"
State College: 5.0"
Chambersburg:  6.8"
Clearfield: 3.2"
Gettysburg : 6.0"
Carlisle: 6.6"
Dillsburg: 6.2"
Highest lollie ( 9.6")
MBY: 4.7"

Where is Palmyra?! LOL. 

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45 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I was complaining how I haven't been able to open the windows much the past month...well now it makes sense. I knew it was hot every night but didn't know it was the 2nd warmest. Thankfully its supposed to be really cool tonight

Looking like we are entering an extended period of normal, which climo says 50's are more normal for overnights.  I opened windows last night and pulled covers on me for the first time in many many days.  Was just awesome.  

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House's leveled or completely destroyed, cars blown around and picked up, trees/power lines completely stripped and sheared. Just things you don't see in south Jersey. Chasing behind the tornado (we couldn't see it because of the RFD and rain shield), we were apparently 1-2 minutes behind it and transformers were blowing everywhere so we knew we were right on it. Unfortunately (fortunately?) we didn't catch a clear view of the twister, but eh there's plenty of videos out on Twitter of it. We set up base just a smidge to the SE of the rotation in an open field to catch the best, yet safest, view possible. The inflow into the supercell was incredible. The wind howled and had an eerie whistle. Like a train. We saw a rotating wall cloud directly in front of us, but as soon as it passed us trees began to obscure the view. But we knew it was there, the radar velocity signatures were getting stronger. So we paralleled the storm and tried hard to catch up. At one point, we made a right instead of going straight which may have saved our lives. Like I said, we were 1-2 minutes behind the storm, well if we had gone straight and not detoured we would have driven directly into it. 

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5 minutes ago, Newman said:

House's leveled or completely destroyed, cars blown around and picked up, trees/power lines completely stripped and sheared. Just things you don't see in south Jersey. Chasing behind the tornado (we couldn't see it because of the RFD and rain shield), we were apparently 1-2 minutes behind it and transformers were blowing everywhere so we knew we were right on it. Unfortunately (fortunately?) we didn't catch a clear view of the twister, but eh there's plenty of videos out on Twitter of it. We set up base just a smidge to the SE of the rotation in an open field to catch the best, yet safest, view possible. The inflow into the supercell was incredible. The wind howled and had an eerie whistle. Like a train. We saw a rotating wall cloud directly in front of us, but as soon as it passed us trees began to obscure the view. But we knew it was there, the radar velocity signatures were getting stronger. So we paralleled the storm and tried hard to catch up. At one point, we made a right instead of going straight which may have saved our lives. Like I said, we were 1-2 minutes behind the storm, well if we had gone straight and not detoured we would have driven directly into it. 

Why I love the solidly mediocre disaster movie 'Twister' | Dazed

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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Looking like we are entering an extended period of normal, which climo says 50's are more normal for overnights.  I opened windows last night and pulled covers on me for the first time in many many days.  Was just awesome.  

i can't recall the last time my windows were open

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