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Roger Smith

2021 seasonal max contest

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In past years I have added a seasonal max challenge to the ongoing temperature forecast contest. This year just to shake things up a bit, I am going to open this separate contest in the hopes of attracting a larger field of entries. 

The contest asks you to predict the 2021 annual maximum temperature (F) at ten locations. The contest winner will be the person with the smallest total departure from these outcomes. Make your forecast in whole numbers please, any decimal entries will be converted to whole numbers. 

The ten locations are:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(up to you to research what has already happened at these locations, BIS hit 106 yesterday). 

Deadline is end of Sunday 13th (Mon 14th 06z) with late penalties as follows: number of days (by hourly time stamp) squared. 

2.5 days late gets a late penalty of 6.25 points ... etc. 

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DCA:  100

NYC:  98

BOS:  98

ORD:  101

BIS:  107

ATL:  101

IAH:  104

DEN:  101

PHX:  121

SEA:  98

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

102     96       98        97      106    99     103     102    119     94   

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DCA 101

NYC 96 (102 at LGA)

BOS 99

ORD 100

BIS 106

ATL 99

IAH 102

DEN 101

PHX 119

SEA 94

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Table of forecasts __ Seasonal Max 2021

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning ______________ 104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _  117 __ 92   

wxdude64 ____________________ 103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96

DonSutherland 1 ______________ 102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94   

Roger Smith __________________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99

RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99

Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98

BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ___________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 

wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92

___ consensus (mean) _________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95

 

Highest to date _________________ 94 __ 92 __ 96 __ 93 _ 106 __ 92 __ 99 ____101 __118 __ 86

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