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2021 seasonal max contest


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In past years I have added a seasonal max challenge to the ongoing temperature forecast contest. This year just to shake things up a bit, I am going to open this separate contest in the hopes of attracting a larger field of entries. 

The contest asks you to predict the 2021 annual maximum temperature (F) at ten locations. The contest winner will be the person with the smallest total departure from these outcomes. Make your forecast in whole numbers please, any decimal entries will be converted to whole numbers. 

The ten locations are:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(up to you to research what has already happened at these locations, BIS hit 106 yesterday). 

Deadline is end of Sunday 13th (Mon 14th 06z) with late penalties as follows: number of days (by hourly time stamp) squared. 

2.5 days late gets a late penalty of 6.25 points ... etc. 

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Table of forecasts __ Seasonal Max 2021

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning ______________ 104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _  117 __ 92   

wxdude64 ____________________ 103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96

DonSutherland 1 ______________ 102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94   

Roger Smith __________________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99

RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99

Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98

BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ___________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 

wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92

___ consensus (mean) _________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95

 

Highest to date

__ (updated Jul 31) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 94 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108

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  • 2 weeks later...
13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies.

By the consensus or the max forecast? It is super hot out this way right now, all SEA is going to need to break 100 is a land breeze. Highs in the 105-110 range are going to be widespread in the Pac NW and s BC this weekend and most of the following week. I am at nearly 4,000' elevation but right now it's close to 98F and heading for the 103-105 range. Valleys will be hotter. But SEA can hold on to a weak seabreeze, right now I see it is 88 there with a northerly breeze. Probably tops out at 95 today, maybe higher in coming days. 

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On 6/25/2021 at 10:12 PM, so_whats_happening said:

I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies.

Well now 108 has replaced the previous all-time record set the previous day. I am super depressed because I am under the same heat dome with the same temperature here. (Canadian all-time record fell yesterday, now 47.9 C which is 118 F, mind you it's a dry heat, dew points in the 50s).

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4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Well now 108 has replaced the previous all-time record set the previous day. I am super depressed because I am under the same heat dome with the same temperature here. (Canadian all-time record fell yesterday, now 47.9 C which is 118 F, mind you it's a dry heat, dew points in the 50s).

Wow overall max temps have been very impressive to say the least! Stay safe I know many dont have ac to deal with stuff like this.

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