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Severe Weather April 6th-10th 2021


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5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The area circled below (the line of agitated CU ) is going to be the place to watch for any storms that first initiate along the dry line...

image.thumb.png.1f18e4edb2cf8ca82026e160806209e9.png

Called it, lol...

image.png.a579191113d69e33ac9f9fe70bb3699f.png

   Mesoscale Discussion 0346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 092059Z - 092300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered intense thunderstorms
   increasingly possible through 5-6 PM, accompanied by the risk for
   large, potentially damaging, hail and locally strong surface gusts. 
   A severe weather watch may be needed within the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...The deepening moist boundary layer has become strongly
   unstable along/east of the dryline which is still just west of the
   Interstate 35 corridor, across north central through central Texas. 
   As mid-level troughing begins to overspread this region, it appears
   that cooling aloft is contributing to weakening of initially strong
   mid-level inhibition.  Initial attempts at thunderstorm development
   may be underway to the west of the dryline, based on recent
   satellite imagery, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
   development appears possible through 22-23Z.  

   Strongest deep-layer shear, beneath the high-level jet of
   lower-latitude Pacific origin, is generally south of the Dallas-Fort
   Worth Metroplex, between Waco and San Antonio, where potential for
   supercells currently seems highest. This probably will be
   accompanied by a risk for large, potentially damaging hail, and
   locally strong surface gusts into early evening.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32539781 32609689 30859676 29859735 29379815 29539867
               29889878 30729831 32539781 
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7 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

What timeframe would this be?

Taking the HRRR verbatim, it would be ~6-8 PM. Anyways, the more agitated CU seems like it would pass south of you and I directly (and right as I say this the watch gets issued including us lol)

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image.png.e2e2d9b745e6412ebb1291d4f15d48e6.png

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 82
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   425 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     North and central Texas

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple supercells are expected to develop along the
   dryline, first near the Waco vicinity and eventually farther north
   towards the Metroplex. Large hail up to baseball size should be the
   primary threat.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast
   of Sherman TX to 30 miles southeast of Temple TX. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW
   79...WW 80...WW 81...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   29030.

   ...Grams
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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Dry line is already entering the western half of DFW.

We'll see if it does slows down, or if it moves through and sets up shop just east of the Metroplex like the GFS has been showing. 

Is that the S shaped line from Weatherford to Granbury and west of Gatesville?  If so, it's been barely moving east.

Looks like 2 little cells are popping up just east of it, over Gatesville and south of Clifton.

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1 minute ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Is that the S shaped line from Weatherford to Granbury?  If so, it's been barely moving east.

Looks like 2 little cells are popping up just east of it, over Gatesville and south of Clifton.

Yes, that's it.

Right behind it, Mineral Wells is at 92*F.

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7 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Wonder if the updraft will be able to sustain itself, especially with some dry air still in the lower levels of the atmosphere per the recent FWD sounding

What I saw driving home from work had quite a high base; I wonder if this updraft is rooted above the cap?

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12 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It looks like a nice cell is finally trying to get going down towards Alvarado, TX.

And here we go...

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

TXC139-217-251-100030-

/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0059.210409T2323Z-210410T0030Z/

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

623 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

 

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

 

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  East central Johnson County in north central Texas...

  Northeastern Hill County in central Texas...

  Southwestern Ellis County in north central Texas...

 

* Until 730 PM CDT.

 

* At 623 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Grandview, or

  9 miles south of Alvarado, moving east at 15 mph.

 

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

 

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail

           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect

           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

 

* Locations impacted include...

  Waxahachie, Italy, Grandview, Maypearl, Milford and Mertens.

 

This includes the following highways...

 Interstate 35W between mile markers 8 and 22.

 Interstate 35E between mile markers 376 and 397.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from

windows.

 

&&

 

LAT...LON 3214 9676 3207 9690 3201 9685 3200 9686

      3223 9725 3236 9720 3237 9676 3216 9674

TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 284DEG 13KT 3228 9717

 

HAIL...1.75IN

WIND...60MPH

$$

 

12

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC113-100045-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0061.210410T0001Z-210410T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
701 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 701 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ovilla, or
  over Glenn Heights, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dallas, Garland, Grand Prairie, Mesquite, Rowlett, Desoto, Cedar
  Hill, Duncanville, Lancaster, Balch Springs, Seagoville, Glenn
  Heights, Red Oak, Hutchins, Cockrell Hill, Sunnyvale, Wilmer,
  Ovilla, Ferris and Combine.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35E between mile markers 411 and 428.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 459 and 484.
 Interstate 30 between mile markers 42 and 64.
 Interstate 45 between mile markers 267 and 284.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 9653 3255 9704 3257 9704 3277 9686
      3290 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 248DEG 31KT 3254 9689

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
$$

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22 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It looks like another cell might be trying to develop just north of that monster cell off its outflow, which (if it does) would impact the southside of Dallas proper.

I'm gonna be watching the track of that left split, but it should pass to my southeast.

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2 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

I'm gonna be watching the track of that left split, but it should pass to my southeast.

There's still a brief window for something to develop as the cold front pushes through.

This is the latest HRRR's forecast sounding at 00z.

image.thumb.png.5e789609ba5ff123b5772d1fb48885dd.png

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