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OK/AR/KS/MO Spring 2021 Discussion


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We may have been the Oklahoma Arctic the last two weeks but give it a week and it will be severe season. I was reading this attached spring outlook and realized that if we do have an active season it could kick off very soon.  CPC looks warmer and somewhat moist in the next couple of weeks so we could see a early March event start to show up. If we rock like the end of the La Nina in 2011 we could be very busy. 



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So I came across some analogs for the first couple of weeks of March. I still think we will have a event in the middle part of March this year. Past events show that we could see a strong event and we are seeing some good moisture return to the SE from the Gulf of Mexico and if we can get the return with a dynamic system we could see some early spring magic. 






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Prospects for severe weather seem to ramp up rather significantly by mid-march. Guidance has been keying in on western troughing for several runs now. **BUT it is March, so moisture will almost certainly be an issue to deal with, especially with the FROPA occurring right now in the GOM, as well as the FROPA/low that is forecast to occur this weekend -- these combined FROPAs really deal a blow to LLVL moisture in the GOM prior to any of our potential systems 3/9 to 3/16.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine a scenario with zero impactful severe storms occurring next week across the Central and Southern Plains with the mid/upper-level pattern depicted on the 00Z GFS -- regardless of nebulous details related to moisture return.

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Looks like the SPC is slowly upping the chances for severe storms this week. May be the start of the spring season with some decent moisture return possible. We will have to watch this system as there could be some decent but limited storms. 


  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
   The medium-range models start out the day 4 to 8 period in decent
   agreement. For Wednesday, the various solutions have an upper-level
   low near the coast of California and show southwest mid-level flow
   from the Desert Southwest northeastward across much of the central
   and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to be
   located in the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will
   be possible along the front from late Wednesday afternoon into the
   overnight period. The most likely corridor for convective
   development would along and ahead of the front, from northern
   sections of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid to upper
   Mississippi Valley. With surface dewpoints forecast to be in the 50s
   F ahead of the front, instability should remain weak. However,
   deep-layer shear is forecast to strong, making a severe threat
   possible in spite of the weak instability. The potential for severe
   storms could be maximized in Oklahoma and eastern Kansas Wednesday
   night, where low-level flow and moisture are forecast to be the

   Southwest-mid-level flow is forecast to be maintained on Thursday
   from the south-central U.S. into to the northeastern states. At the
   surface by late Thursday afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be
   located from northern sections of the southern Plains northeastward
   into the southern Great Lakes. The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian
   models are reasonably close with the front position at 00Z/Friday.
   The models suggest that convection will develop along the front from
   late Thursday afternoon and persist through the evening and into the
   overnight period. The strongest instability is forecast in the
   southern Plains while the strongest deep-layer shear is forecast
   much further northeast into the mid Mississippi Valley and southern
   Great Lakes. In addition, many of the GEFS members have a shortwave
   ridge located in the south-central U.S. Thursday night. Although a
   severe threat could develop Thursday evening along and ahead of much
   of the front, the factors previously mentioned make the forecast
   magnitude of any severe threat highly uncertain.

   ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
   On Friday, the medium-range models diverge sharply. Model solutions
   vary on the position and strength of the upper-level low across the
   western U.S. This will impact the forecast further to the east
   across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The
   models do show a moist airmass in place across the southern Plains
   and lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front is forecast from Oklahoma
   eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley but some solutions have the
   front further to the south than others, such as the ECMWF. Severe
   thunderstorm development could occur near the front Friday afternoon
   and evening. The strongest instability would be in the southern
   Plains suggesting the severe threat would be maximized from north
   Texas into Oklahoma. A threat area may need to be added in later
   outlooks, once the models show run-to-run consistency and certainty

   On Saturday and Sunday, the models sharply diverge on the
   upper-level pattern. Some solutions move the upper-level eastward
   into the central states while others weaken the upper-level low.
   There is a large spread in GEFS members as well. If the upper-level
   low does move eastward into the Great Plains, a substantial severe
   threat would be possible ahead of the system Saturday afternoon and
   evening. The severe threat could redevelop further to the east along
   and ahead of a cold front on Sunday in the Mississippi Valley. This
   scenario will be dependent upon the upper-level low moving eastward
   into the central U.S. If the upper-level gradually weakens, as the
   ECMWF solution suggests, the severe threat in the south-central and
   southeastern U.S. would be much more localized. For the reasons
   previously stated, predictability is low for Saturday and Sunday.
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  • 3 weeks later...



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

   Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a scenario of a
   western U.S. trough evolving into a closed mid-level low over the
   central U.S. during the early half of the extended period.  Severe
   potential will likely focus on Tuesday across KS and possibly OK
   near a dryline with storms developing eastward overnight. 
   Uncertainty remains regarding moisture quality and capping concerns
   but hail/wind are the main threats with this activity.  Higher
   confidence exists for organized severe storms on Wednesday from the
   Ozarks eastward to the MS Valley as high momentum flow overspreads a
   potential moderately unstable boundary layer centered on Arkansas. 
   All hazards are possible.  A separate bi-modal area of concern could
   develop farther north but there is low confidence in this scenario. 
   Uncertainty increases by Thursday owing in part to model spread and
   potential consequential effects of appreciable convective
   overturning for areas farther east/southeast on Thursday (day 6). 
   Model variability increases during the latter part of the extended


Not much but something in a very dry period.....


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
446 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing...diminishing around sunset.

AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...improving around sunset.

Winds gusting 15 to 25 mph will remain common through the early
evening hours. These winds along with warm temperatures and low
humidity values will continue to support high grassland fire
spread rates across much of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas. Winds will decrease around sunset and fire weather
conditions will improve.

Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...High Fire Weather Potential.
MONDAY...High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm, High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Strong to Severe Thunderstorm, High Fire Weather and
High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...High Fire Weather Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.

Warm and windy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns this
weekend and into much of next week. A storm system will move
into the Plains Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms may
develop across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
Wednesday afternoon.


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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like the long awaited return of a severe-favorable pattern is coming soon. Next Tuesday is looking potentially big-time from a severe weather prospective across the Plains. Big-league negative tilt trough with a strong LLJ. Main question at this point seems to be moisture.

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