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The intense western cold and eastern cold are both thinning, but the map is definitely shifting to warmth pretty rapidly from where it was in February.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

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We haven't really had a wet month here since June 2020, so I'll buy more into El Nino conditions when we start seeing consistent wetter than average months across the Southwest. It is weird to say that though, since places like Santa Fe will end up with snow every month from September-March, and probably April too this cold season.

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                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1
 10FEB2021     25.4-0.5     25.4-0.9     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2
 17FEB2021     25.7-0.5     26.2-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.0
 24FEB2021     25.2-1.1     25.7-0.9     25.7-1.2     27.2-1.0
 03MAR2021     26.6 0.2     26.5-0.4     26.3-0.7     27.4-0.8
 10MAR2021     27.4 0.9     27.1 0.1     26.9-0.3     27.7-0.5
 17MAR2021     27.1 0.5     27.0-0.2     26.8-0.5     27.9-0.4
 24MAR2021     25.4-0.9     26.6-0.7     26.8-0.6     27.8-0.6
 31MAR2021     24.9-1.1     26.8-0.6     27.1-0.5     27.9-0.6
 07APR2021     25.3-0.5     26.9-0.6     27.3-0.5     28.3-0.3

Will be curious to see how various features evolve later in the year. PDO is still pretty negative even as the subsurface warms. The pattern for fall-spring will probably remain to some extent in Summer nationally. Predominantly warm with some brief periods of severe cold. That volcanic eruption in the Caribbean is a bit of a wild card, it's listed as a VEI 4 eruption on Wikipedia and could maybe change some forcing in the tropical Atlantic or even the far eastern tropical Pacific.

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Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
13 Apr 2021 1009.79 1010.95 -25.60 0.83 5.90
12 Apr 2021 1011.26 1010.15 -9.23 1.60 6.45
11 Apr 2021 1012.90 1009.25 9.08 1.52 6.74

That's trouble.

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