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2021-2022 ENSO


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15 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, that 4-6-month SOI was only matched by 2011 (apr 23.9), which was the Dec 2010 I keep comparing too, as a significant anomaly correlation to this last Winter. Then 1994 (reverse) 

1994  4   -19.9  

93,92,91 were all <-10 .. so we are reverse-early 1990s. Wierd because that was a 5-year subsurface El Nino, but surface was Neutral. we are + in the subsurface now, which does not match. Showdown I guess lol. 

Yea, 2010-2011 was my primary ENSO analog...I agree, there. In hindsight, I feel like a moron for mixing up December and January considering that 2010-2011 with the epic January was so high on my list of ENSO analogs.

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5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

 

What's really going on down there??

Yeah the subsurface is the definitely the fly in the ointment as of now. If you look at only it, appears like a Nino about to onset. But every other indicator tells a different story. SOI continues to maintain near-record positive values, trades are absolutely ripping, OLR remains locked in a robust Nina pattern, etc

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7 hours ago, StruThiO said:

Yeah the subsurface is the definitely the fly in the ointment as of now. If you look at only it, appears like a Nino about to onset. But every other indicator tells a different story. SOI continues to maintain near-record positive values, trades are absolutely ripping, OLR remains locked in a robust Nina pattern, etc

I think the subsurface is just insurance against la nina going nuts.

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Subsurface matches for Apr-June were 1979, 1985, 1996, 2000, 2013

1979: -0.21 / +0.06 / +0.35

1985:  -0.24 / +0.09 / -0.02

1996:  +0.01 / -0.16 / +0.17

2000:  -0.31 / -0.18 / +0.08

2013:  -0.06 / -0.14 / +0.26

2022:  -0.34 / -0.10 / +0.33
 

1979/2000 blend is pretty close:  -0.26/-0.12/+0.22

                                             2022:  -0.34/-0.10/+0.33

In winter, that would be Neutral by Peru, slightly cold by Nino 4.

I consider 1985-86 and 1996-97 cold-neutral, rather than La Nina. Both died pretty early and went hard to El Nino status. 1985-86 stayed warm below the surface from Nov-Mar and cold above it. 1996-97 was warm from January on.

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It's actually been a straight correlation in the 3,000 mile region of North Pacific, when the subsurface center went warm, >0.0, -PNA stopped completely, 

That will probably continue into Winter. surface doesn't really matter for the 30N-90 Jet

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I've been looking at a lot of the La Ninas with "cold" look Atlantic setups recently. I don't remember any of the recent La Ninas with the Atlantic this cold well into the hurricane season. Tropical Tidbits has a lot of pretty shitty hurricane seasons, in terms of activity, as current top SST matches globally - 1970 (40 ACE), 1971 (97), 1975 (76), 2011 (126), 2013 (36).   

Screenshot-2022-07-05-6-28-48-PM

Impressive how much colder the Atlantic was compared to the most recent 10 La Ninas given 0.1-0.3C warming since 2000. Of course a lot of research shows that the "Indonesia warm pool" and the Indian Ocean are generally warming faster than the other oceans. So the most warmth is in that MJO phase five zone you all love so much each December.

Image

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10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've been looking at a lot of the La Ninas with "cold" look Atlantic setups recently. I don't remember any of the recent La Ninas with the Atlantic this cold well into the hurricane season. Tropical Tidbits has a lot of pretty shitty hurricane seasons, in terms of activity, as current top SST matches globally - 1970 (40 ACE), 1971 (97), 1975 (76), 2011 (126), 2013 (36).   

Screenshot-2022-07-05-6-28-48-PM

Impressive how much colder the Atlantic was compared to the most recent 10 La Ninas given 0.1-0.3C warming since 2000. Of course a lot of research shows that the "Indonesia warm pool" and the Indian Ocean are generally warming faster than the other oceans. So the most warmth is in that MJO phase five zone you all love so much each December.

Image

Be careful with CDAS.  It is known to significantly underestimate Atlantic SSTs, especially in times of strong SAL.  
Also from experience I recommend being careful with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis-based SST.  It runs much cooler than most other datasets.  OISST and HADISST are better choices.

Also keep in mind there was significant warming in the MDR in the last two weeks of Jun.  After some brief cooling in the next week or so with a surge of stronger trade winds in the MDR, weaker than normal trade winds are expected to return second half of Jul into early Aug per long-range EPS and the weekly EPS.  This would likely lead to further warming by the peak of hurricane season.  This is consistent with stronger than usual West African Monsoon that has prevailed since 2015, contributing to reduced trades and helping to warm the MDR between Jun and Sep.   

I like the idea you came up with, of comparing this La Nina with the past 10.  On the ESRL site, OISST and HADISST are not yet updated for Jun.  When they update, I would be interested to see your plot would appear with those datasets.

ssta_natl.png

crw_ssta_natl.png

eps_u850aMean_atl_11.png

20220706115050-95f9beacc2733b3ef900b0ccaa9f27c37f4b53df.png

20220706115101-7055dc7f26d595bda0c4f75f5ab691ccdb9fc442.png

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Always fun to see the local landscape look like the Scottish highlands after a good bout of rain. I call it the Don Sutherland curse. Every time he writes about it being four degrees above normal we get 400% of normal rain, and then he mysteriously disappears. 

Screenshot-2022-07-06-7-56-38-PM

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 There have been only four days since April 1st (98 total days) without a +SOI. Both the 30 and 90 day SOI averages remain firmly in La Niña territory fwiw. But I still wouldn't rule out cold neutral for the upcoming fall/winter peak based on the current subsurface and surface. Actually, due to the inherent unpredictability that I've been a victim of, I wouldn't even totally rule out warm neutral and I probably shouldn't rule out anything lol. Regardless, most indicators suggest good warming commencing at some point early in 2023 (perhaps as early as much of the winter) and persisting for much of the year. So, even if it dips back down into or stays within La Niña this fall, it should be an early minimum.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

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20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There have been only four days since April 1st (98 total days) without a +SOI. Both the 30 and 90 day SOI averages remain firmly in La Niña territory fwiw. But I still wouldn't rule out cold neutral for the upcoming fall/winter peak based on the current subsurface and surface. Actually, due to the inherent unpredictability that I've been a victim of, I wouldn't even totally rule out warm neutral and I probably shouldn't rule out anything lol. Regardless, most indicators suggest good warming commencing at some point early in 2023 (perhaps as early as much of the winter) and persisting for much of the year. So, even if it dips back down into or stays within La Niña this fall, it should be an early minimum.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

I am with you on thinking either weak la nina of neutral....and nor would I rule out warm neutral. Weak la nina and warm neutral are the goal posts this year. I also think that the cool anomalies may be centered a bit more to the west than last season, which bodes well for a faster start to the season, and maybe a tamer mid portion of the winter.

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PDO is a regression of North Pacific SSTs. While the "horseshoe" region has warmed, the area extending east of Japan is still blazing hot and is anomalously warmer than the horseshoe. This still yields a net negative PDO, even after the recent warming. June will still be solidly negative although higher than this Spring.

 

Definitely bullish on a flip to +PDO along with onset of El Nino.. finally.. around Spring 2023. 

 

 

 

The-PDO-spatial-pattern-The-leading-EOF-of-North-Pacific-SST-anomalies-for-the-three.png.163d12797d11335dbeefad1a69a71016.png

cur_coraltemp5km_ssttrend_007d_45ns.gif.954fe6496722dd6f48490363f690c794.gif

 

 

image.png

 

  

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MJ MEI down to -1.9....lowest since ND 2010 and lowest on record for MJ dating back to 1948.

Def. gives reason for pause on the el nino train of thought.

 

The El Nino response to this will take time.. but I think could result in the strongest since 2015. Moderate to strong. We are due

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 Today's weekly update has Nino 3.4 at -0.5 C, slightly warmer than the prior week's -0.6 C. For those who don't happen to know, the -0.5 C is essentially based on the average of last week due to the normal ~5 day reporting lag.

 The SOI, after one day of barely negative, has gone back to positive (modest so far). I'm assuming that much of the reason for the record low MJ MEI is the very strongly + MJ SOI. The 2022 MJ SOI was way up at +17.1, which is 2nd highest (records back to 1876) to 1917's +19.4. In 3rd is 1950's +15.0. In 4th is 1931's +14.2, 5th is 1915's +14.0, and 6th is 1938's +13.9.

 Where did these 5 other years end up ENSOwise during the subsequent fall/winter dip? One might think good chance for moderate to strong La Niña. However, only one was moderate (1917, the record holder for MJ +SOI), none were strong, and the other four were weak Niña to cold neutral:

1915: weak La Niña/cold neutral border

1917: moderate La Niña 

1931: cold neutral

1938: weak La Niña 

1950: cold neutral/weak La Niña border

 Based on this, I'll educatedly guess for now a weak La Niña for the upcoming fall/winter with probably an earlier than average low point.

Daily/last 30 days SOI:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/


Monthly SOI back to 1876:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

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11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today's weekly update has Nino 3.4 at -0.5 C, slightly warmer than the prior week's -0.6 C. For those who don't happen to know, the -0.5 C is essentially based on the average of last week due to the normal ~5 day reporting lag.

 The SOI, after one day of barely negative, has gone back to positive (modest so far). I'm assuming that much of the reason for the record low MJ MEI is the very strongly + MJ SOI. The 2022 MJ SOI was way up at +17.1, which is 2nd highest (records back to 1876) to 1917's +19.4. In 3rd is 1950's +15.0. In 4th is 1931's +14.2, 5th is 1915's +14.0, and 6th is 1938's +13.9.

 Where did these 5 other years end up ENSOwise during the subsequent fall/winter dip? One might think good chance for moderate to strong La Niña. However, only one was moderate (1917, the record holder for MJ +SOI), none were strong, and the other four were weak Niña to cold neutral:

1915: weak La Niña/cold neutral border

1917: moderate La Niña 

1931: cold neutral

1938: weak La Niña 

1950: cold neutral/weak La Niña border

 Based on this, I'll educatedly guess for now a weak La Niña for the upcoming fall/winter with probably an earlier than average low point.

Daily/last 30 days SOI:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/


Monthly SOI back to 1876:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

Yea, my call is weak la nina peak to perhaps cold neutral for winter.

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