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2021-2022 ENSO

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For what it's worth - years when Albuquerque hits 90F for the first time by May 10th in the past 90 years. Most of these years (all but 2009 and 2018, which are also cold here) are cold-ENSO. But there is what I can an evaporation constant here, the hottest/driest Summers flip to colder and/or wetter winters. 

July-Sept is hot.


Dec-Feb is not.


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I'm expecting a break to wetness in New Mexico with some signs of a pretty wet month showing up for June. Keep in mind, it hasn't rained in Albuquerque in since 3/30, so it'd be quite a change to get this -


There is a strong negative correlation between full high-terrain melt off and when the monsoon begins in earnest for timing. June 2018 was very wet here, with snowpack at Taos Powderhorn (11,000+ feet) fully melted by 5/16. Snow this year should fully melt off Taos Powderhorn on 5/29 or 5/30. Even since 2010, far more common for snow to melt off around 6/10-6/20, and good years can be close to 6/30 at that elevation.

The monsoon benefits from high level heat sourcing, so it is beneficial to the process when there is more time for the high terrain to warm up. For comparison, last year had 37 inches of snow in late May. The 2018-2019 snow pack was excellent still in late May - 63 inches (5+ feet) on 5/31/2019, ahead of a very weak monsoon.

Not expecting a super hot Summer down here. Also don't think the hurricane season will be too much like the recent ones. Suspect you'll see more focus on Florida than in recent years. Sea ice extent is also currently higher in the Arctic than each year from 2014-2021, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2006, 2005, 1995. That should have some effect on the Atlantic circulation patterns.


Still expecting a warm December for the East unless we start to break down that warm pool by Indonesia. Would love to see a flip with super cold waters by Indonesia and the entire Pacific warm at the equator, but don't know if it will ever happen.



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On 5/13/2022 at 4:59 AM, raindancewx said:

Tonga has been confirmed as a VEI 6 eruption, largest of the current century.


Cooling in the 20S/175W vicinity was pretty massive for SSTs in month one. If you do 5/10 minus 1/10, the effect is still there. It will be interesting to see what happens as those waters should migrate about. I was going to look to see if winds were predominantly blowing from the NW to SE in the area of the volcano, but not quite sure what level to look at for the Sulfur movement. Ash made it 58 km up into the atmosphere.


TWC just posted a video about this yesterday. The Tonga eruption reached well into the ionosphere a.k.a. space. 

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On 5/28/2022 at 3:30 PM, Spartman said:

TWC just posted a video about this yesterday. The Tonga eruption reached well into the ionosphere a.k.a. space. 

VEI-6 eruptions usually lead to noticeable short-term effects on the global climate. If this is the case, we can expect to see these effects during this Summer, just like in 1992. 

JB already talking about a cooler-than-normal summer for much of the US. Wonder if this could be when we start to see the effects of the Tonga eruption that occurred in January. 


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Solar activity is really gaining fast. The July-June year for 2021-22 will finish over 55 sunspots rather easily. 

July 2021-May 2022 is 56.5 on average. Highest since at least 2015-16, probably since 2014-15. Pretty likely we'll top 55 again in June. July-June years that average under 55 sunspots have interesting precipitation and temperature correlations at different times of the year in different parts of the US. We're losing the solar thumb on the scale now for the more infrequently favored events long-term. 

High solar El Nino is actually an excellent snow pattern in the East generally. For whatever reason, when I look at it you get fewer mix and rain to snow, or snow to rain events.  March always seems particularly responsive to solar locally, but sometimes I wonder if its because the magic correlation spot via the Bering Sea Rule has the strongest response anywhere globally in March. You put enough lows over southern Kamchatka in Feb-Apr and we get blitzed with snow here. If you play around with maps on the correlation site for the entire world, I'd say there are five-six important interactions with ENSO & Solar that change by the point in the solar cycle. WPO in March seems to be one of the more important mixtures.


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On 6/2/2022 at 1:40 AM, StruThiO said:


 The latest weekly as well as May, 2022, overall, were the coldest for their respective periods in Nino 3.4 since 1999:

Weekly: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Monthly: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii


 Related to this, the met. spring SOI of +16.8 was the 2nd highest on record by a good margin going back to 1876. Only 1917's +18.3 was higher:


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Subsurface matches for March-May for 100W-180W are not that strong v. 2022 in most cases. 


2000 is best. 2007, 2008, 2004 are not bad. My criteria here is similar negative values in March, trending warmer.

Year  March   April   May
2000  -0.64   -0.31  -0.18
2004  -0.10   +0.21  +0.30
2007  -0.72   -0.59  -0.58
Blend -0.49   -0.23   -0.15
2022  -0.47   -0.34   -0.13

That's an interesting mix of years for sure - hurricane season was pretty dead in 2007, but the blend is around 140 ACE in the Atlantic, similar to 2000. These matches usually look like temperature patterns in the US when I do them correctly - so far so good. By the way, that blend is the December you all want.



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On 6/5/2022 at 7:16 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

This isn't going to break.. next to no chance for La Nina. 

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz (1).gif


 The following subsurface animation suggests that the upper 100 m or so and especially the area east of 140W is cooler vs the TAO/TRITON based source that you posted. Thoughts about which is more accurate?


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