Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Are you surprised with that forecast and the verbiage the NWS used this morning that the heaviest snow could be up to Niagara Falls that Niagara isn’t under a watch as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: There it is!!! The first 18-24” mark on the map! It all depends on where that low tracks. It's going to be a now casting event. The latest GFS has a WSW flow compared to the other short range models. Literally 20 miles north or south of that low dictates where the snow band goes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 In terms of confidence with this 1st event I'm at like a 2 out of 5. Has bust potential. Winds/Dry air/Location of bands forecasted...That's the beauty of LES, this is a now cast storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: It all depends on where that low tracks. It's going to be a now casting event. The latest GFS has a WSW flow compared to the other short range models. Literally 20 miles north or south of that low dictates where the snow band goes... Yes and you and I both know the short range models are far superior to any global model at LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: In terms of confidence with this 1st event I'm at like a 2 out of 5. Has bust potential. Winds/Dry air/Location of bands forecasted...That's the beauty of LES, this is a now cast storm. Well luckily the NWS isn’t concerned with dry air...yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 All I know is that its beautiful outside right now and going skiing all night. This free week of PTO has been fantastic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: All I know is that its beautiful outside right now and going skiing all night. This free week of PTO has been fantastic. HV? I’m taking my two oldest next weekend out there to learn for their first time. I figure conditions will be the best they’ve been in years so no better time to teach them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: HV? I’m taking my two oldest next weekend out there to learn for their first time. I figure conditions will be the best they’ve been in years so no better time to teach them! Yeah. Going after wife gets out of work tonight. Only $76 for 2 people all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah. Going after wife gets out of work tonight. Only $76 for 2 people all night. Can’t beat that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Gfs still looking pretty good for Monday.. Actually starts the band just to my south at like 280 vector, slowly backs north, about a 12-18 hour window before the next SW moves through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Not sure if RGEM was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not sure if RGEM was posted Looks great. I think from Hamburg op to west Amherst really shares the wealth over the next week. It’s almost too exciting honestly...you’d hate for that “oh shit” situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Gfs over the next 7 days as it has a mix of LES and synoptic chances all week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Warning at the 3pm update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM WIVB is definitely using the HRR...mike just showed the exact same “forked” band one in the north towns and one in the south towns and they connect just after the 90 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: WIVB is definitely using the HRR...mike just showed the exact same “forked” band one in the north towns and one in the south towns and they connect just after the 90 split. So by this map I’m surprised the NWS hasn’t added Chautauqua county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Blizzard Warning at the 3pm update? FIXED 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: FIXED I do think at some point in this event a blizzard warning will be hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 NWS added a wind advisory for tomorrow and a lakeshore advisory but did not update the Watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Lake effect snow warning from 4pm Friday to 10pm Saturday. Total accumulation 9-16” in most persistent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Lake effect snow warning from 4pm Friday to 10pm Saturday. Total accumulation 9-16” in most persistent snows. Sounds about right, won't be a blockbuster event. Lots of issues to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Picture of the lake today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sounds about right, won't be a blockbuster event. Lots of issues to deal with. Yeah it appears so.plus I think they shortened the time as it went to 1am Sunday originally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 the 235 update is still from this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah it appears so.plus I think they shortened the time as it went to 1am Sunday originally Excited to see how this plays out. Sub 980 low near Lake Superior holding tight with intensity and placement while the Arctic cold front is east of NY is prime time for immediate BUF area lake effect interests. Any chance we get some feeder moisture from Lake Michigan with this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Excited to see how this plays out. Sub 980 low near Lake Superior holding tight with intensity and placement while the Arctic cold front is east of NY is prime time for immediate BUF area lake effect interests. Any chance we get some feeder moisture from Lake Michigan with this setup? Great question! Not sure I’ve ever heard that before so I’m curious as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 NAM seems to have a more WSW component to the winds then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I’m not sure if this scares or excites me so I’m scared but Niagara co and Orleans co are under a winter weather advisory for 5-8” of snow. Reading the tea leaves until they update the AFD means they are believing this is Buffalo north towns special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM seems to have a more WSW component to the winds then previous runs. Yeah I’m guessing the NWS is not on board with that based on my above post...not that they’re right but if they thought there’d be a more southern band those 2 counties would not be involved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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