BuffaloWeather

Major LES Events- Feb 5-?

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850mb winds were out of the west the entire time..I figured shear may be an issue..Same closer to the surface between 900-1000 mb..Kind of all over the place lol Small window this afternoon into evening that has limited low level shear according to the gfs..

WUNIDS_map - 2021-02-10T100923.287.gif

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

850mb winds were out of the west the entire time..I figured shear may be an issue..Same closer to the surface between 900-1000 mb..Kind of all over the place lol Small window this afternoon into evening that has limited low level shear according to the gfs..

WUNIDS_map - 2021-02-10T100923.287.gif

What direction tonight?  Channel 9 was talking about the band moving south tonight but it will probably be transient. 

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According to the NWS and most SR guidance the band will be lifting north, possibly as far as southern jefferson.. Tonight it should gain a little strength and drop back south..

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Nice. So it goes from missing the Syracuse screw zone to the north on West(wnw...lol) to missing us to the west with NW winds, while the wave misses us to the south. Lol.

Time to invest in that snow machine.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

No sir..I'm about a couple miles from there..I used to work right across the street at the Fulton group lol

I'm not even sure if it's considered the"dot" but it's where they keep most of their sand, salt and some of their trucks..

It's on the outskirts of the village..

PXL_20210210_150651796.jpg.f6e9433c4b16c

Ahh gotcha. Been 2 years but delivered  salt to both of them ...

back to regularly scheduled discussion...

 

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Gfs shows a similar scenario as the SR models with the band lifting north this afternoon and dropping back south overnight..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_2.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_3 (1).png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_4 (2).png

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New map starting at 10am..

If verified it would bring me into the 13"-15" range for a storm total..This is  also the"low end" with 8"-12" as the high end..

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (14).png

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Gfs with another quick shot at LES behind this weekend system as it looks like we have a SW swinging through.. Obviously wind direction is subject to change..

snku_024h.us_ne (38).png

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29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs with another quick shot at LES behind this weekend system as it looks like we have a SW swinging through.. Obviously wind direction is subject to change..

snku_024h.us_ne (38).png

Canadian with a similar concept.. We'll see how this trends as we get closer..

 

snku_024h.us_ne (41).png

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

So, how do we get a good WNW event around here? Need a low somewhere off the New England coast?

Yeah, retrograding lows are your bread and butter. Or a clipper pattern with meandering wind directions. 

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Even when I lived in the city of Fulton it seemed like everything missed me just to the north lol We had some decent events no doubt but a ton of dink and dunking..

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36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Best bet Matt is to study the lake effect archives..

Here was a decent event for your area but you will notice the band is a little bit disjointed as that area has less fetch..

 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2019-2020&event=F

Certainly much rarer to get big events on NW/WNW flow. The big time events off erie and ontario are always W/SW

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2" new since around 9am as the snow has been steady not necessarily heavy..8.25" storm total so far, doesn't include the couple inches of synoptic yesterday..

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

2" new since around 9am as the snow has been steady not necessarily heavy..8.25" storm total so far, doesn't include the couple inches of synoptic yesterday..

Close to 100" on the year?

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Haha I wish man..

I know it seems that way but we missed out on so much synoptic potential..

Last time I checked spotter reports it was in the low 50s but that doesn't include last CF/LES, yesterdays synoptic and today's lake effect..So probably break into the 70s lol

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Last synoptic event we got downsloped so bad during the day that pulaski had like 4-5 inches lol

Missed out on the Christmas synoptic system..As well as the Binghamton crush job...

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...Oswego County...
Oswego                      11.0 in    1115 AM 02/10   Public
2 WSW Oswego                10.1 in    1120 AM 02/10   Trained Spotter
Altmar                       9.0 in    1149 AM 02/10   Public
Pulaski                      6.3 in    0900 AM 02/10   Public
2 N Richland                 5.3 in    1100 AM 02/10   Trained Spotter
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