Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.


AMZ8990
 Share

Recommended Posts

15 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Just having some fun.

AO/NAO remaining negative, MJO heading into favorable phases, and the GFS dancing with record cold has the stock trending up.WINTERoptimism.png.4e12ffbd062f4a8e46457afffa816a60.png

Maybe we can pull off a Reddit style takeover if we all start short selling the warmth?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely have my eye on the 12z GFS Para(GFS has this as well).  They both push the freezing line to our area our just past it.   There are 2-3 waves which ride that front.   Guessing the GFS is being overly aggressive with the cold.  However, in the off chance that those are right, that would be a multi-wave overrunning event.  Those happen, but has been a long time.  Time frame is just after the 5th which is right around the much discussed trough amplification.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of note on Carvers above post. Overrunning events have produced some of the Valley's biggest Snows. If I'm not mistaken Knoxville was a recipient and testament to that with their greatest Snowfall on Record. 22.5" , Dec. 3-5th, 1882, I believe.. correct me I'm wrong on that.  A long time ago but, there's been some not so long ago. 

     As for my local, Feb. 14, 1986 is my fav...13.5". 6" fell in an hour and 10 minutes ! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z Euro is pretty much at the same place.  Lots of high pressure over the northern tier of states.  GOM begins to attack the cold.  Lots of variations with the SER.  We DO NOT want an absence of the SER, but just enough of an angle to send precip into the cold.  Right now have to think the NW shield of those waves will be cold.  Again, nothing set in stone.  This could trend to a stronger SER and just be a ton of rain OR modeling could be underestimating the push of cold and we could be in business.  We need the cold front around the 5th to blast through and not wash out.  Then, we need the boundary to press SE of the area.  That hasn't happened a lot this winter, but has generally produced when it has.  The NAO seems to slow nearly every system over E TN just enough so that some frozen precip falls in those areas.  This upcoming window is something that everyone can watch...Usual areas north of I40 are in better shape due to latitude.  However, that is some crazy cold air in the front range of the Rockies.  If any of that breaks loose and heads East...that is a good set-up.  I know by this time of year most are fatigued from following system after system...but I am intrigued with this.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GEPS is the best case scenario with the EPS the worst case at it has a very dubious look with the cold bottled up in the Southwest.  That can happen, but it is usually in error and is out of step with its own MJO with that look.  Will be interesting to see corrections as we move forward.  Right now, I think areas of NW TN and SW KY would be ripe for snow after the 5th, but really that is a long way out right now.  Anything could happen with that much cold around and also with a SER.  Lots of variables.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z Euro later in its run(though cold in the Ohio Valley), is playing the "tuck rule" game where it tucks a trough under a big EPO.  Very realistic probability and one way the pattern could go wrong.  That has occurred during the past 3-4 winters.  That said, the NAO is a new feature on the map this year, and may not allow that trough to have staying power under the EPO ridge this time.  Have a feeling that gets forced out.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mrx has issued a High Wind Watch for the mountain wave event this weekend. This looks like the best setup so far this season. It checks most of the boxes in terms of various parameters for Camp Creek (and other foothill locations) to get very strong gusts Saturday night and Sunday. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...