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George BM

May Discobs 2020

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Sterling's latest ...

The wave of low pressure to our south will move into our region late
Wednesday and into Thursday. Situ awareness ensembles are indicating
anomalous moisture with this system which suggests that moderate to
heavy rain will be possible with this low.  As PW will be upwards of
1.74 to 2 inches , there will be a threat for localized flooding
/ flash flooding on Thursday. Increasing daytime temps and moisture
during late morning to early afternoon periods on Thursday will
prime the environment to be modestly unstable. Models have the
potential for 500 to 1500 J/KG of CAPE but shear and forcing will be
lacking. Thunderstorms will be possible mainly during peak heating
in the afternoon and early evening periods but the severe threat
will be limited due to lack of shear and forcing. I can`t rule out
some isolated instances of strong thunderstorms but I expect the
main threat for Thursday to be isolated instances of flooding as
PW`s are high but low level instability remains weak with this low.
The better severe threat will be on Friday as a cold front
approaches and moves through our area.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Friday is still shaping up to be one of the most active days of the
week in terms of convective potential. In an amplified upper flow
pattern, ridges will be located over the Atlantic and Desert
Southwest, while a closed low in the deep south becomes absorbed by
a digging northern stream trough. A surface cold front ahead of the
trough will approach but likely won`t reach the area during the
daylight hours of Friday. However, there will be height falls and a
warm/humid/moist airmass in place. Thus, numerous showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop with peak heating. While some
strong storms are possible, marginal shear and questions about cloud
cover/heating could be limiting factors. Localized flooding could be
a bigger threat due to precipitable water values of 1.5-2 inches and
potential for slow storm motions. However, the lack of a low level
forcing feature and weak shear may mean the storms could tend to
pulse and propagate by means of cold pool interactions/initiation.
The threat may also be dependent on the preceding amount of rain
since some areas have been dry lately.

 

Continues to look like an interesting period upcoming.

Mount Holly's thoughts-

Quote

Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of these systems. The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight differences in the track of the system, and given the rather compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the stronger convective cores.

Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday night with the approach of a strong cold front.

 

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17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Dense fog here this morning. Hopefully the sun makes an appearance before dinner time today lol.

I know, right. Just another cloudy, damn and shitty morning. It looked like it me a decent morning at around 7. Then the fog and mist rolled in right on time. 

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Left the house in Dundalk at 830, was foggy, cloudy and a little misty but once I got to about Parkville on 695, the sun popped and it’s been sunny here in Timonium area since I got to the park here at 9am. Great day to park watch and make sure nobody breaks any rules!

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Rest of the week looks to turn cooler and wetter.  Shocker.  We might be struggling to get out of the 60s this weekend.  

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Rest of the week looks to turn cooler and wetter.  Shocker.  We might be struggling to get out of the 60s this weekend.  

Shouldn’t it be relatively warm still even with showers thru Saturday? The cool down starts Sunday I was under the impression. Doesn’t look like it’s gonna b constant rain, at least here anyway. The worst of it to me looks like late Friday into 18z Saturday 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Shouldn’t it be relatively warm still even with showers thru Saturday? The cool down starts Sunday I was under the impression. Doesn’t look like it’s gonna b constant rain, at least here anyway. The worst of it to me looks like late Friday into 18z Saturday 

Perhaps I'm being a bit too pessimistic (there's a first), but it seems like temps on MOS are trending down below 80 after tomorrow and the POPs are more in the 50% - 70% chance now instead of the 30% to 50% they were a few days ago.

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5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

What are rainfall amounts looking like? 

WPC 7 day QPF total is less than 1.5" regionwide.

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10 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

What are rainfall amounts looking like? 

Looks like generally 1-2” thru 00z Saturday. A few lucky folks might get around or a little over the 2”. My bet would be the western folks from Winchester to Frederick but we’ll see

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51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Perhaps I'm being a bit too pessimistic (there's a first), but it seems like temps on MOS are trending down below 80 after tomorrow and the POPs are more in the 50% - 70% chance now instead of the 30% to 50% they were a few days ago.

It is an impressive cool shot for June 1st, but this map starts to get more orange and red after that.

gfs_T850a_us_25.thumb.png.716d8a6ad0ded39b81589334e753f895.png

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39 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It is an impressive cool shot for June 1st, but this map starts to get more orange and red after that.

gfs_T850a_us_25.thumb.png.716d8a6ad0ded39b81589334e753f895.png

I’ll welcome max high of 70 for a day or 2. Before we know it it’ll be July, and 90-100F or not, it’ll be humid so...

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