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weatherwiz

Thursday Fun For Everyone (04/09/2020)

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Need to take the mind of Corona for a bit.

A vigorous piece of shortwave energy diving southeast through Canada Thursday swings a cold front through the region late morning/early afternoon. The synoptic setup presents an intriguing spring-like look. The main sfc low projected to pass through central New England prevents the warm front from lifting through the region, meanwhile a weak area of high pressure northeast of ME helps keep colder air locked in place across northern New England with colder air being reinforced by the passage of the (strong) cold front. As the shortwave amplifies upon digging through southeast Canada rather impressive dynamics develop aloft with a 500mb jet streak exceeding 120-130 knots overnight Thursday. The result from this system...a significant spring snowstorm across ME with rain and an embedded line of t'storms moving through southern New England on Thursday. 

While the warm front never gets into southern New England, an airmass characterized by dewpoints climbing into the mid-to-upper 40's, temperatures into the 50's, and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/KM) will result in modest elevated instability. This combined with the strong dynamics aloft and forcing from the cold front will result in the development of a low topped squall line which may be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small hail.

Meanwhile, in northern ME a several-plus hour thump of heavy, wet snow is likely given favorable thermal profile and strong lift through the DGZ. Combination of strong winds and heavy, wet snow may result in isolated-to-scattered power outages. Given the vigorous lift with this system and influx of warmer and more moist air into the CCB, there will likely be a band of extremely heavy snow (rates 1.5''-2''/hr) which may yield a narrow band of 12-20'' of snow. 

Fun day in store!

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Still looking good for a line of strong convection to move through early tomorrow afternoon. Embedded gusts 45-55 mph likely then becoming QUITE windy behind the front. ME going to get smoked too.

  • Weenie 1

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it's interesting because both the gfs and euro flagged this 8-9 days out. Heh

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

MARGINAL RISK EXPANDED NORTH!!!!

image.thumb.png.786d92802a3cf6c2b9224395f51c6eda.png

I knew you would be on top of posting this once I saw them expand it. Looks like an active severe wx week for much of the country. If the Euro is right the southeast really has to keep an eye out on this weekends threat. 

 

Euroweekend.jpeg

Shear.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

I knew you would be on top of posting this once I saw them expand it. Looks like an active severe wx week for much of the country. If the Euro is right the southeast really has to keep an eye out on this weekends threat. 

 

Euroweekend.jpeg

Shear.jpeg

yeah there is certainly potential for a rather extensive widespread damaging wind event...tornado potential too. Going to be tough to resolve all the details 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Small hail with some of the stronger storms today I would think. Localized gusts 45-55 perhaps

image.thumb.png.c96e7138f505e165e3a471f3209b17ed.png

We will rebuild.

rebuild.jpg

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Thinking about taking a ride up to the lake house in Ossipee after work and staying the night but it's not looking great for that area, just a little to far south and not much elevation...plus the whole don't travel if necessary thing would make me feel guilty about going up there.  Hopefully we can score some decent storms later and I''ll be keeping an eye on the coastal flooding at home, definitely been a nuisance for some folks the past few tide cycles.

This weekend is looking increasingly nasty in the south. Dare I say we could see a high risk day on Sunday issued by the SPC? 12z NAM soundings are pretty crazy across southern areas of MS and AL. 

 

 

2020040912_NAM_078_32.21,-89.05_severe_ml.png

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12 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Thinking about taking a ride up to the lake house in Ossipee after work and staying the night but it's not looking great for that area, just a little to far south and not much elevation...plus the whole don't travel if necessary thing would make me feel guilty about going up there.  Hopefully we can score some decent storms later and I''ll be keeping an eye on the coastal flooding at home, definitely been a nuisance for some folks the past few tide cycles.

This weekend is looking increasingly nasty in the south. Dare I say we could see a high risk day on Sunday issued by the SPC? 12z NAM soundings are pretty crazy across southern areas of MS and AL. 

 

 

2020040912_NAM_078_32.21,-89.05_severe_ml.png

A few things that may really hinder overall potential is a weakening EML and not so great llvl lapse rates. However, given the degree of forcing and llvl moisture return there's certainly going to be severe wx and a quite a bit.

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35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Severe T'storm watch southern 4 counties of CT until 4:00 EDT

That's pretty early for these parts. Don't normally see severe watches until close to May.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Really nice batch of t'storms moving north through southern CT...should get hit here at home!!! 

Lots of hail reported 

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Lots of hail reported 

yup! Hoping to get some. Going to head out to the car in a bit and wait for them to come 

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