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Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco

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Yep gotta love the wagon train of arctic cold shots we have going on with no snow to show for it, when it would have been nice to have seen an early spring take hold for a change. February 28-29th on today's ECM is friggid :angry:

 

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Wouldn't be surprising to now see Feb 20-March 20 average closest to normal temps for the entire cold season, just had to happen.

* except Nov we had cold then too lol

 

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4 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring.

'

I'm ready for 50s and 60s soon if it's not going to snow. I think the long stretches without snow to liven things up make the winter feel longer.

At the same time I'm kind of glad it hasn't been too warm for too long, it seems to be helping the buds etc. to remain semi-dormant. Spring flowers in February probably wouldn't work out.

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5 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I'm ready for 50s and 60s soon if it's not going to snow. I think the long stretches without snow to liven things up make the winter feel longer.

At the same time I'm kind of glad it hasn't been too warm for too long, it seems to be helping the buds etc. to remain semi-dormant. Spring flowers in February probably wouldn't work out.

We have had many 50's this "winter" lol

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looked out this morning after a low of 19 and my crocuses are blooming and it didn't even phase them. :lol:

Wow - that's good! None here yet, although I did see a couple of flowers on a forsythia out back last weekend.

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Hey man like single digits in March on the GFS, just another ordinary start to spring in the new backwards clown world :lol:

How can this possibly happen short of some massive strat warming event with such a persistent +AO and strong PV?

 

 

gfs_T850_us_59.png

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8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Hey man like single digits in March on the GFS, just another ordinary start to spring in the new backwards clown world :lol:

How can this possibly happen short of some massive strat warming event with such a persistent +AO and strong PV?

 

 

gfs_T850_us_59.png

GFS op has an extremely cold bias. Ens families and weeklies all suggest a mild start to March. GEFS in particular agree that the cold map you posted is likely garbage:

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_58.png

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21 hours ago, RedSky said:

Hey man like single digits in March on the GFS, just another ordinary start to spring in the new backwards clown world :lol:

How can this possibly happen short of some massive strat warming event with such a persistent +AO and strong PV?

 

 

gfs_T850_us_59.png

I agree.

Considering the exceptionally strong polar vortex and the reality that its impact on the pattern will likely linger even after it weakens, the kind of extreme cold that had periodically shown up on the GFS or the large-scale cold anomalies for March/spring on earlier CFSv2 runs are likely far-fetched. The GEFS and GFS both have pronounced cold biases, as well.

Finally, it increasingly appears that snowfall prospects will be limited even after February if historic experience is representative. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is continuing to pound the 11th-12th. Other ens on board. Under 9 days now. Do we track or is it another Lucy football tease?

gfs_asnow_neus_38.png

I'll be in florida so this one is legit. I'd start preparing now :lol:

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

It's only the GFS so Lucy isn't on the field and the team isn't near field goal kicking range yet, she is just fantasizing Ralphie lol

 

Euro has it and is close. CMC has it but is west. GEFS is a beauty. GEPS also has it.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro has it and is close. CMC has it but is west. GEFS is a beauty. GEPS also has it.

But I'm still willing to bet it doesnt happen based on this winter. Probably will end up as the ultimate tease with everything trending to the good for once and then fall apart last 36 hours.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But I'm still willing to bet it doesnt happen based on this winter. Probably will end up as the ultimate tease with everything trending to the good for once and then fall apart last 36 hours.

Reverse psychology, lol.

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