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John1122

12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.

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SREF just jumped up over SE KY (not populated for TN locations as of me making this gif). An even better NAMing incoming? Is that even possible? 

giphy.gif&key=b1e175a731bbc57dab5bbfc7fc71f7f5201bfda0752752186b11f4e7302ae7eb

 

 

Vort is a tad stronger along CA/AZ border on 0z..see how it goes

 

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c30b49be3e3fe4b8b0ea2b73a294d4c9.gif

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Huge GFS run. Hits every one in the forum except it blanks Hamilton Co/NE Alabama.  
It also followed the meso models (just not quite to the same extent) of slightly stronger energy

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The 0z RGEM was a plastering of snow (5-8”) from Memphis, through Jackson and into northern middle TN.  Only goes to 48 and is still snowing in these locations at the end of its run.

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Overall so far a nice 00z suite, with the exception of the NAM maybe overemphasizing the consolidation of the energy over C AL. RGEM was headed for glory lol.

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2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Overall so far a nice 00z suite, with the exception of the NAM maybe overemphasizing the consolidation of the energy over C AL. RGEM was headed for glory lol.

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I really want to see that full rgem run, for entertainment purposes if nothing else :snowman:

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Saw that Robert (WX South) was feeling pretty confident in a few inches coming down fast in the forum region.  Mentioned that most of the accumulation would be on grass/decks etc.  But seems confident rain will change to heavy snow from Arkansas/Mississippi into Kentucky and Virgina.  

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Hi-Res GFS was a little larger with snow coverage than the 18z run.  Its filled the Nashville heat island from .8 to 2 inches in the last 12 hours of runs. Also expanded the snow more in the Eastern areas south of 40 vs earlier runs. 

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That's some pretty heavy snow showing up!

No doubt, John.  The RGEM struggles sometimes on the back end of a run, but I’ve also seen it win a battle or two.  Will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

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Lots of sleet on the Canadian. Still manages to put down 2-6 inches of snow over a good portion of the Valley. 
Yeah definitely want to go with your 33% rule

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Pivatol weather has it. It runs out to 39 hours at 3z, 9z, 15z and 21z. Only 21 hours otherwise. 

It looks faster with the transition to frozen. Eyeballing, it's probably 50-75 miles east with the frozen line vs the NAM during the same timeframe.  

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Either all modeling is catching on with the short wave coming on shore currently over CA or this is the biggest Lucy job in quite awhile (especially for you guys in middle/west TN) lol.

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4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Either all modeling is catching on with the short wave coming on shore currently over CA or this is the biggest Lucy job in quite awhile (especially for you guys in middle/west TN) lol.

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I would be very confident with this much model agreement before the flaming burns from the last two years.  If this was showing up on models along the gulf coast or mid west I'd say take it to the bank from this close in, but our area seems incredibly prone to model busts when snow is involved. 

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