12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.

[TellicoWx]

SREF just jumped up over SE KY (not populated for TN locations as of me making this gif). An even better NAMing incoming? Is that even possible? 

 

 

Vort is a tad stronger along CA/AZ border on 0z..see how it goes

 

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

There's our energy rolling down the CA coast. Looks healthy. 

Is this a situation where it is just now getting sampled beyond satellite level.

Am I just full of wishful thinking? 

I guess we'll know Wednesday morning, lol. 

[TellicoWx]

00z NAM weaker with the trailing energy over west TN...step toward the GFS/Euro.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

47 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

see how it goes

12km cuts totals. 

Still some respectable totals though, just not cray cray 8 inch+ stuff

[John1122]

Normally the NAM will start to correct its wonky stuff within 36-48 hours of the event. Hi-res backed off about 10-20 percent on totals as well. 

[TellicoWx]

Looks like it kept the energy more consolidated toward the Gulf longer vs prior runs (results in the precip increase over C AL).

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[TellicoWx]

00z RGEM coming in a tad slower/stronger with the wave as it moves over TX

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[TellicoWx]

00z NAM had a better energy setup between middle TN and smokies, but really drove a dry slot in between 700 and 850 cutting totals.

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[John1122]

Huge GFS run. Hits every one in the forum except it blanks Hamilton Co/NE Alabama.  

[TellicoWx]

Huge GFS run. Hits every one in the forum except it blanks Hamilton Co/NE Alabama.  

It also followed the meso models (just not quite to the same extent) of slightly stronger energy

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[John1122]

Clown map for it. Using my standard 33 percent reduction, this would still be a nice event for most areas of the valley region. 

 

[tnweathernut]

The 0z RGEM was a plastering of snow (5-8”) from Memphis, through Jackson and into northern middle TN.  Only goes to 48 and is still snowing in these locations at the end of its run.

[TellicoWx]

Overall so far a nice 00z suite, with the exception of the NAM maybe overemphasizing the consolidation of the energy over C AL. RGEM was headed for glory lol.

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[Kentucky]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Overall so far a nice 00z suite, with the exception of the NAM maybe overemphasizing the consolidation of the energy over C AL. RGEM was headed for glory lol.

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I really want to see that full rgem run, for entertainment purposes if nothing else 

[John1122]

Saw that Robert (WX South) was feeling pretty confident in a few inches coming down fast in the forum region.  Mentioned that most of the accumulation would be on grass/decks etc.  But seems confident rain will change to heavy snow from Arkansas/Mississippi into Kentucky and Virgina.  

[John1122]

Hi-Res GFS was a little larger with snow coverage than the 18z run.  Its filled the Nashville heat island from .8 to 2 inches in the last 12 hours of runs. Also expanded the snow more in the Eastern areas south of 40 vs earlier runs. 

[tnweathernut]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019120900&fh=48

accumulations

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019120900&fh=48

[John1122]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019120900&fh=48

That's some pretty heavy snow showing up!

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That's some pretty heavy snow showing up!

No doubt, John.  The RGEM struggles sometimes on the back end of a run, but I’ve also seen it win a battle or two.  Will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

[TellicoWx]

CMC following the suite trend so far with slower/stronger...snow breaking out in C TX this run

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[TellicoWx]

Big run coming for CMC...C AR / W TN (Memphis) big jump vs 12z

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[Will (little rock)]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Big run coming for CMC...C AR / W TN (Memphis) big jump vs 12z

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Oh yeah, im enjoying this trend

[John1122]

Lots of sleet on the Canadian. Still manages to put down 2-6 inches of snow over a good portion of the Valley. 

[TellicoWx]

0z CMC

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[John1122]

The 39 hour rap is running.  Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well. 

[Will (little rock)]

Just now, John1122 said:

The 39 hour rap is running.  Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well. 

Where do I find this map?

 

[TellicoWx]

Lots of sleet on the Canadian. Still manages to put down 2-6 inches of snow over a good portion of the Valley. 

Yeah definitely want to go with your 33% rule

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[John1122]

Pivatol weather has it. It runs out to 39 hours at 3z, 9z, 15z and 21z. Only 21 hours otherwise. 

It looks faster with the transition to frozen. Eyeballing, it's probably 50-75 miles east with the frozen line vs the NAM during the same timeframe.  

[TellicoWx]

Either all modeling is catching on with the short wave coming on shore currently over CA or this is the biggest Lucy job in quite awhile (especially for you guys in middle/west TN) lol.

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[John1122]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Either all modeling is catching on with the short wave coming on shore currently over CA or this is the biggest Lucy job in quite awhile (especially for you guys in middle/west TN) lol.

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I would be very confident with this much model agreement before the flaming burns from the last two years.  If this was showing up on models along the gulf coast or mid west I'd say take it to the bank from this close in, but our area seems incredibly prone to model busts when snow is involved.