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meatwad

Pittsburgh PA Area Rest of fall and Winter 2019-2020 thread

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Seems as though PivotalWeather is offering Euro maps for nothing.  Wonder how long that'll last.

I see a lot of below normal temps coming in the next couple weeks.  Hope it isn't all for nothing in November. 

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1 hour ago, Mailman said:

Seems as though PivotalWeather is offering Euro maps for nothing.  Wonder how long that'll last.

I see a lot of below normal temps coming in the next couple weeks.  Hope it isn't all for nothing in November. 

Hopefully they both last at least for the duration of winter, the free Euro maps and the decent H5 look on the models. :lol:

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Interesting look for the end of this week on the Euro.. Thinking at the very least we may get to see first legitimate snow in the air. There were a few flakes in the air on Friday early in the morning if you squinted hard enough but something a bit more substantial would be fun. Really nice layout on pivotal to view the Euro maps, hope these free maps last all winter.

00zEuro.thumb.jpg.c189ee97b36ac4b701cea3cbe674bead.jpg

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FIrst measurable snowfall last year was November 15/16.  I think it is possible we can beat that date this year.  Bigger question may be whether we can sustain a favorable pattern this winter as compared to last.

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Welcome back everyone! Excited for another year of tracking - hopefully this year we manage to avoid the screwzone at least once and can cash in on a few nice storms. Anyway its nice to be tracking in early November.

 

That being said, the Euro backed off a little bit on the 12z run. Hard to analyze what happened based on the surface maps from Pivotal. Would love to see what is happening at the H5 level. Anyway, should still see some accumulating snowfall. Which makes me happy :snowing:

Happy Tracking!

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High-res NAM goes to all snow at 3 PM tomorrow in these parts.

GFS is a bit slower and keeps the precip around for longer, through 8 PM or so.

Neither gives us much at all and leaves a nice little hole over Pittsburgh.  Maybe we can grab a sloppy inch for a taste.

As usual the ridges and lake counties do better and might get a couple.

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On 11/5/2019 at 8:42 AM, Burghblizz said:

Looking to win some of these 50/50 storms this year!

Are they really 50/50 If we miss 90% of the time?

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Not expecting much accumulation today around here, maybe a dusting if moisture can hang around until after dark. Looking forward to seeing some snow in the air though. Either way, tomorrow morning will probably feel more like January than November.

image.thumb.png.5bdee136164f571230d3a6dba6d00e46.pngimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c

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6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Not expecting much accumulation today around here, maybe a dusting if moisture can hang around until after dark. Looking forward to seeing some snow in the air though. Either way, tomorrow morning will probably feel more like January than November.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c

Yes. Looking forward to seeing some flakes flying in the air. It will be interesting to see how fast the cold air gets in here today. Not thinking it will amount to anything, but would love to see some rates if we get caught under a band.

 

 

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Anyone interested, apparently Jeff Verszyla has his own little hobby weather site https://pittsburghweathernow.com/ Looks like he posts daily weather forecasts etc. A little cheesy at first but after I watched a couple you can tell he is just having some fun and keeping relevant with weather. Anyways, he posted a Winter Forecast:

https://www.facebook.com/JeffVerszylaWeather/videos/1660342644103250/

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2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Anyone interested, apparently Jeff Verszyla has his own little hobby weather site https://pittsburghweathernow.com/ Looks like he posts daily weather forecasts etc. A little cheesy at first but after I watched a couple you can tell he is just having some fun and keeping relevant with weather. Anyways, he posted a Winter Forecast:

https://www.facebook.com/JeffVerszylaWeather/videos/1660342644103250/

Well it's that time of year already I guess. Interesting Jeff's going above normal on temps for November whenever it's looking like we maybe getting some serious cold shots. Looking at the mid range maybe next week we get our first shot at accumulating snow. 

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10 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Well it's that time of year already I guess. Interesting Jeff's going above normal on temps for November whenever it's looking like we maybe getting some serious cold shots. Looking at the mid range maybe next week we get our first shot at accumulating snow. 

Honestly, i don't listen to him and don't trust him. His "no hype" model is great if you never want to be wrong, but it also doesn't tell people what they need to know about the upcoming weather. We could be looking at a 4-8" storm within 36 hours and he would still be calling it "snow shower" on his whiteboard weather. Its ok to give a little hype when it is in the rhelm of possibiliites.

I will be curious to see how the Euro performs modeling this system for early next week. I typically view the Euro as pretty reliable 3-5 days out, but it struggled this the changeover from this past storm - it never really happened... 

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Looks like Tuesday morning may be our first snowfall. I'm guessing at this point 1-3 or so.

 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A strong cold front and deep upper level trough is progged to reach
the upper OH River Valley late Monday, with rain changing over to
snow after the frontal passage. Models remain fairly consistent in
this transition by early Tuesday morning, with accumulating snow
becoming more likely for all areas. Cold NW flow in the wake of the
passing front/trough will keep chances for lake enhanced snow showers
through mid-week. Though the finer details on sfc low positioning,
location of banded snow, and amount of moisture remaining in the
post- frontal environment remain inconsistent, confidence is high
that a watch is unlikely as snowfall amounts will likely remain below
thresholds.

Very strong cold advection behind the front will drop temperature to
well below normal areawide through much of the week. Most notably,
there is potential for near record to record low maximum temperature
Tuesday, with winter-like wind chill expected through Wednesday.

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59 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Looks like Tuesday morning may be our first snowfall. I'm guessing at this point 1-3 or so.

 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A strong cold front and deep upper level trough is progged to reach
the upper OH River Valley late Monday, with rain changing over to
snow after the frontal passage. Models remain fairly consistent in
this transition by early Tuesday morning, with accumulating snow
becoming more likely for all areas. Cold NW flow in the wake of the
passing front/trough will keep chances for lake enhanced snow showers
through mid-week. Though the finer details on sfc low positioning,
location of banded snow, and amount of moisture remaining in the
post- frontal environment remain inconsistent, confidence is high
that a watch is unlikely as snowfall amounts will likely remain below
thresholds.

Very strong cold advection behind the front will drop temperature to
well below normal areawide through much of the week. Most notably,
there is potential for near record to record low maximum temperature
Tuesday, with winter-like wind chill expected through Wednesday.

This looks like a fairly similar set up to the one that we just had. A convergence of two pieces of energy that forms a low pressure center somewhere around southern Ohio/Pennsylvania. The one thing that leaves me pessimistic is mentioned in the discussion.  "amount of moisture remaining in the post- frontal environment remain inconsistent." 

 

Its just really rare to have a front to come through and keep it moist enough to continue to precipitate once the temp drops enough to allow it to snow. I thought we would see some snow thursday afternoon and then it just dried out so fast once the front went through. I want to keep watching to see if the trough can dig a little deeper rather and form the low a little further south. We might have enough cold air in place that way to get an inch or two out of the system

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Yeah not expecting much but 2 inches in November is more than most Novembers so it's not really a let down. 

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I'd be happy with an inch, but it looks to dry out as the last one did.  I'll expect nothing.

Last 30 years in November:

  • 13.9" most (1995-96)
  • Trace least (9 different years)
  • 2.3" average

In addition to those nine "trace" years, we can add four more years of less than an inch received.  To me that is more or less equivalent to nothing.  13/30 or 43% of the time.  Those aren't great odds of getting relevant accumulating snow in November.  Add in four more years with between 1" and 2" and that's over 50% of the time we can't even muster 2" in November, total.

Take out those two unusual high-end amounts ('95 and '13) and the average drops to 1.6" instead.

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43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Good lord...look at the nws area map..we are surrounded by advisories. So typical. 

Its only November. If you're getting mad already you are in for atleast 3 months of disappointment. 

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7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Nope... Im coming in with a prediction of nothing. A few flakes flying around while we sleep. Thats all

I think most of what we see will be lake driven, most of the synoptic precip will be over by the time we get cold enough. With the huge temperature difference of the anomalously cold air over the warm lake waters hard to imagine some robust bands don't develop so we know how that goes, some of us will see an inch while others get a dusting. 

All that being said, wind is starting to pick up and feels a lot cooler out there now. 

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Picked up a slushy coating that was quickly freezing up overnight. Just enough to encase the car in a icy crust and freeze the doors shut. :rolleyes:

Now we wait to see what the lakes do, seems like some light snow showers are already developing behind the exiting front. Should have a favorable fetch over Huron and Erie for at least a bit of time which is typically what we need to get those stronger bands.

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1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

Nice band setting up city and points NW

Yeah looks like some solid 25-30 dbz returns in that:

radar.jpg.0d6cace8e467bd6c6ab9481c1fd55177.jpg

Won't take much of a shift for the City to start getting in some of the action with that.

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