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Tallis Rockwell

Severe weather for 10/21-10/23

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day48prob.gif

E


    EDIT: The new outlook has a better picture






...DISCUSSION...
   The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF appear to be in reasonable
   agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features through Day 4 and
   into the first half of the Day 5 period.  After this, differences in
   the evolution of the large trough progged to crossing the Plains
   states Day 4 and then the Mississippi Day 5 begin to become fairly
   substantial.  As such, confidence in the predictability of the
   pattern beyond day 5 is quite limited.

   In the mean time, some potential for the evolution of scattered to
   isolated severe storms remains apparent over the eastern Oklahoma
   and Arklatex region and surrounding areas Day 4 (Sunday 10-20), as a
   deepening surface low shifts out of the central and northern High
   Plains and eventually reaches the Minnesota vicinity. 
   Correspondingly, a trailing cold front is shown crossing eastern
   Kansas/Oklahoma/western Texas during the afternoon, as warm-sector
   destabilization becomes diurnally maximized.  As favorably strong
   flow aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the advancing
   surface front, at least isolated cells -- developing as residual
   capping is locally breached -- will evolve within a sheared
   environment likely supportive of rotating updrafts.  

   Storms may diminish somewhat in intensity overnight, but it appears
   that reintensification of convection -- and regeneration of
   accompanying severe risk -- should occur across portions of the
   central Gulf Coast region, as the front continues its eastward
   advance through an amply moist/destabilizing low-level airmass. 
   Again, potential for supercells, and all severe hazards, appears
   possible.

   By Day 6, model differences -- including with location of the
   surface frontal position -- have become substantial enough to
   preclude continuation of severe risk into the eastern Gulf
   Coast/southern Atlantic Coast states.

 

 

day48prob.gif

 

 

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There is a new tornado watch and some storms near Fort Worth. It looks like the severe-warned storms are a result of a supercell split with left- and right-moving supercells.

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A hatched tornado risk area is now present on the new SPC outlook within most of the 10% area (in NE TX from just north of DFW, SE OK, and W AR).

EDIT: and there is now a tornado warning west of La Grange, much further south along I-10.

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21 minutes ago, Kyle-1 said:

Storms moving into Dallas are starting to get a suspicious look to them.

Looks to be a hook (possibly) trying to form on the radar over Southlake.  That storm seems to be intensifying too.

EDIT: new SPC MD seems to suggest that then environment is favorable for tornadoes, though fortunately these storms seem to be struggling to show more significant rotation: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2090.html

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Confirmed tornado over Love Field area per WFAA live broadcast, with tornadic debris signature just NW of the the Park Cities.  That could rack up a lot of damage pretty quickly depending on its strength.

EDIT: it seems that there is a debris ball.  PDS tornado warning now in effect.  This is getting to be quite a serious situation.

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this is the official warning text

Quote

At 909 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located just north of 
University Park, moving east at 30 mph.  This tornado may cross I-
635 near the Dallas North Tollway in the next few minutes.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Garland around 925 PM CDT.
  Mesquite around 930 PM CDT.
  Richardson, Sachse and Sunnyvale around 935 PM CDT.
  Rowlett around 940 PM CDT.
  Dallas around 945 PM CDT.

 

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New SPC MD suggests that an "intense" tornado may be ongoing: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2091.html
 

Quote
   Mesoscale Discussion 2091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

   Areas affected...North Dallas Metropolitan Area

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 676...

   Valid 210208Z - 210245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 676 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado is currently ongoing across northern Dallas
   County. The environment is supportive of a strong tornado, with
   additional tornadoes possible downstream in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar signatures from KFWS reveal an intense
   supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity between
   60 and 65 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on
   recent radar scans. This signature is occurring in an environment
   characterized by STP between 3 and 4. Previous signatures within
   similar environments produced damage-estimated wind speeds from 120
   to 160 mph and a confidence is high for an intense tornado.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32879602 32779632 32769683 32909703 33059702 33139702
               33169684 33219651 33189612 32979590 32879602 

 

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This is a very dangerous situation for northern Dallas County. Doppler radar is indicating a DEBRIS BALL associated with a tornado between Royal Lane and Walnut Hill Lane just north of SMU. This DEBRIS BALL indicates trees and pieces of buildings that have been lifted into the air. Take shelter immediately if you are east of this storm !

 

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PDS tornado warning continued for NE Dallas County and SE Collin County for a tornado over Richardson.  There are now two (!) rotation signatures, one over Richardson and the other one over Garland.

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