Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[chubbs]

23 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Wow.... just.... wow.

Listen to your yourself.

I'll just put this here, and let you struggle with your existential crisis.

 

Let me know when that trend starts upward due to our fossil fuel burning, so I can... run somewhere or something.

We've gotten much better at avoiding deaths in natural disasters through prediction and warnings. The number and intensity of climate-related disasters is increasing. The death toll from natural disasters this year could be relatively high due to the European heat wave and the Nepal landslide.  We'll see when the numbers come out next year.

[Brewbeer]

Quote

be willing to bet that a lot of fossil-fuel-burning boats were involved in the process of recovery

this is part of the frustration - focusing on minutia to distract from the elephant 

[WolfStock1]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

We've gotten much better at avoiding deaths in natural disasters through prediction and warnings. The number and intensity of climate-related disasters is increasing. The death toll from natural disasters this year could be relatively high due to the European heat wave and the Nepal landslide.  We'll see when the numbers come out next year.

 

The increased economic damage is due to the huge increase in building on the coasts, in particular of luxury properties.   I lived right on the coast in both FL and CA over the past few decades, and have seen in firsthand.    Much of it also is due to generally increased economic prosperity (and population increase), and due to inflation.   As your economy grows, you're going to have a lot more stuff that can get damaged.

Not an indicator of "world death" but actually the opposite in fact.

 

Re: European heat wave

Much of that could have been prevented if a lot more people had air conditioning, as they do in places like the US.

 

[chubbs]

6 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

The increased economic damage is due to the huge increase in building on the coasts, in particular of luxury properties.   I lived right on the coast in both FL and CA over the past few decades, and have seen in firsthand.    Much of it also is due to generally increased economic prosperity (and population increase), and due to inflation.   As your economy grows, you're going to have a lot more stuff that can get damaged.

Not an indicator of "world death" but actually the opposite in fact.

Re: European heat wave

Much of that could have been prevented if a lot more people had air conditioning, as they do in places like the US.

 

You are handwaving. The number and intensity of climate-related disasters is increasing.

[WolfStock1]

16 minutes ago, chubbs said:

You are handwaving. The number and intensity of climate-related disasters is increasing.

It is?

[chubbs]

56 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

It is?

Per the caption title "this data should not be used assess the number of events because of changes in data reporting". The science consensus is clear that climate change is going to lead to increased disaster risk, mainly due to increased event intensity.  Here's a report on climate impacts by the US insurance industry. 

https://coalitionforaninsurablefuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Climate-impact-on-insurance-May-2026.pdf

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Per the caption title "this data should not be used assess the number of events because of changes in data reporting". The science consensus is clear that climate change is going to lead to increased disaster risk, mainly due to increased event intensity.  Here's a report on climate impacts by the US insurance industry. 
https://coalitionforaninsurablefuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Climate-impact-on-insurance-May-2026.pdf

Give this recorded breaking (cc enhanced) Nino a chance to do its work. Not that I wish disaster on anyone but we have only just started. Ask the marine iguanas that are left (if any) how they felt about this event.


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[WolfStock1]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Per the caption title "this data should not be used assess the number of events because of changes in data reporting".

 

Yes - specifically referring to the pre-1990s period when a lot of disasters went unreported, due to lack of detection (satellites) or mechanisms (internet).  (it's talked about elsewhere on the page that's from)

Surely you wouldn't propose that detection/reporting rate has gone *down* would you?   What would be the reason for such a thing?

Re: insurance - obviously the financial damages from disasters has gone up tremendously.   

And FWIW - I wouldn't propose that there isn't at least *some* increase in actual disaster levels in the works due to CC (despite the chart I posted); it's hard to tease out the level due to the noise of natural random variation.   I'm just illustrating that it's clear that there's not some kind of world-threatening trend here, by any stretch.

 

[WolfStock1]

3 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

this is part of the frustration - focusing on minutia to distract from the elephant 

There are many elephants here.

In this case I'm just giving an example of how the world benefits from fossil fuel use.   Multiply that times a couple billion, and you can see how it has brought prosperity - including things like the ability for humanity to help the world in various ways - including helping to do things like preserve endangered species.   And... doing things like flying hundreds of jets each year to climate conferences (?)