Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[chubbs]

Long article on rapid introduction of electric HD trucks in China. China is upending fossil fuel economics: "The lesson for Western operators and policymakers is that the cost curve has shifted. The decisions that made sense even in 2024 do not match the realities of 2025."

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/11/26/chinas-bev-trucks-and-the-end-of-diesels-dominance/

 

[WolfStock1]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Don't agree with your comments. The article provided references.  Other than fully depreciated gas and nuclear, Renewables are the lowest cost of electricity in the US. New gas plants, to meet increasing demand, will be much more expensive than fully depreciated; and, as the article states, costs and backlogs for new gas plants are increasing. 

 

I don't disagree with regards to the cost of new builds (though again - they generally don't take into account many factors including regulations, transmission lines, and opportunity cost effect on reliability).   

But the title of the article, and your comment, is referring to the cost of electricity, not the cost of new plants.   They are not the same thing.

Specifically a big contributor to rising electricity prices is the shutdown of existing operational plants, lowering the supply and thus increasing prices.   You seem to keep ignoring/forgetting that.   Electricity isn't just created by new-build plants.

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

I don't disagree with regards to the cost of new builds (though again - they generally don't take into account many factors including regulations, transmission lines, and opportunity cost effect on reliability).   

But the title of the article, and your comment, is referring to the cost of electricity, not the cost of new plants.   They are not the same thing.

Specifically a big contributor to rising electricity prices is the shutdown of existing operational plants, lowering the supply and thus increasing prices.   You seem to keep ignoring/forgetting that.   Electricity isn't just created by new-build plants.

The plants that were being shutdown had relatively high cost, that's why they were being shutdown.

[donsutherland1]

For perspective, no industry comes close to the explicit and implicit subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry.

From the IMF:

[WolfStock1]

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

The plants that were being shutdown had relatively high cost, that's why they were being shutdown.

Yes and why have their costs been going up?   Because of increasingly-onerous environmental regulations, including for CO2 emissions.   It is not due to organic costs.

E.g. the EPA in April 2024 implemented new regs requiring coal plants to cut C02 emissions by 90% by 2039 or be shut down.   The cost to try to reduce emissions by this much is extremely high, and they know this.   They are being forced closed, with "cost" as an excuse to hide the real reason.   It's not naturally due to cost.

[WolfStock1]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For perspective, no industry comes close to the explicit and implicit subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry.

From the IMF:

 

Sorry but that's laughable.   They throw throw the whole kitchen sink in and call it "implicit subsidies".    Traffic congestion is a fossil fuel subsidy?   Why would traffic congestion from an ICE vehicle be any more a subsidy than than for an EV?    Can you somehow magically fit EV's into a smaller space or something?

I just bought some groceries at the local supermarket.   I'm guessing that somehow fits into their "implied subsidies" bucket.

No - renewable energy is far more subsidized than fossil, by about 30x as much.   Lots of data here:

https://www.cato.org/blog/fossil-fuel-subsidies-are-mostly-fiction-real-energy-subsidies-should-go

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/pdf/subsidy.pdf

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/renewable-energy-still-dominates-energy-subsidies-in-fy-2022/