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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Haha yup..

I work right there at the "Fulton Group North America"..I live right off the other side of Centerville road on Route 48..

Haha, I knew it...use to cut up peck to cty route 2 then up into redfield to snowmobile... dumped a few loads of salt at the county barn to 

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Could be a couple/few inches for the higher elevations especially if it comes in overnight..

 

download (53).png

Looks like the heaviest precipitation for us comes in the middle of the afternoon. Boundary layer will be above freezing so little accumulation, especially on the lake plain. Looks like a good hit for the mountains of New Hampshire and Maine. 

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21 minutes ago, Polarbear said:

Haha, I knew it...use to cut up peck to cty route 2 then up into redfield to snowmobile... dumped a few loads of salt at the county barn to 

Nice man..Good eye!! Don't know how u caught that lol..

If u stayed straight on centerville and caught the next left would bring you to route 2 near the Richland Circle K, my local convenient store lol

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The first half of the Long Term period will remain cold and
snowy while the second half of the Long Term looks dry and
warm.

A trough-ridge-trough pattern will be across the Lower 48 Friday-
Friday night and multiple shortwave troughs will quickly dive south
across the Northeast. Cold air advection with promote steepening
lapse rates while upstream moisture and enhanced lift provide enough
for snow showers across western and north-central NY. Northwest flow
will likely continue across the eastern Great Lakes into Saturday.
While snow showers will be diminishing due to increasing subsidence
from the west, snow showers will last the longest southeast of Lake
Ontario. There may be a window of time that enough cold air reaches
Lake Ontario Friday night into Saturday that lake enhancement causes
snow showers to increase in intensity southeast of the Lake. A few
inches of snow are possible during this time.

A large area of high pressure will drift east into the Great Lakes
region by Saturday afternoon. Lingering snow showers will come to an
end by Saturday night and the core of the cold air will move into
the Canadian Maritimes. This will start our warm and dry period with
temperatures reaching seasonable levels. Warm air advection will
begin Sunday-Monday with temperatures climbing into the 50`s.

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Precipitation will end temporarily from west to east Thursday
evening as the trough moves to the east coast. Model guidance
continues to suggest the southern stream wave will produce a rapidly
deepening low just off the New England coast, but this system will
intensify too far east to have any direct impact on our region.
Another strong northern stream trough will approach late Thursday
night, then cross the region Friday. This feature will bring
increasing chances of precipitation again. Temperatures at the
surface and aloft will cool during this time frame as cold advection
begins behind a pair of cold fronts. This will allow most of the
precipitation to fall in the form of snow by Friday. The sharp mid
level trough, strong cold advection, and steep lapse rates often
seen in late March in such a setup suggest the snow showers may
become squally Friday afternoon with bursts of heavy snow possible

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Unfortunately recent trends in model guidance suggest the warm
weather will only last for one day. A strong backdoor cold front
will move south across the Great Lakes and New England on Monday.
Depending on the timing of the front it may still be mild Monday
morning. Developing N/NE flow and cold advection will then bring a
return to well below normal temperatures later Monday through the
middle of next week, with several days of highs back in the 30s
looking likely. The backdoor cold front and a wave moving along it
may produce some precipitation Monday before strong high pressure
brings mainly dry weather thereafter.

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Latest models continuing to suggest the development of a significant
New England coast low developing by Friday. This will produce
considerable wrap around moisture. Thermal profiles by this time will
be cold enough for all snow as 850 mb temperatures drop down to
near -10/-12C. Moisture, upslope north-northwesterly flow along with
an incoming shortwave will result in plenty of snow shower activity.
Bursts of heavier snow quite possible along with gusty winds.
Temperatures may fall later in the afternoon Friday as stronger cold
advection develops.
The New England coastal low will move from northern Maine to
Newfoundland Saturday. Wrap around moisture will be moving eastward
while the core of cold air traverses the eastern Great Lakes through
the day. Although snow showers will diminish to just isolated
showers east-southeast of Lake Ontario by afternoon, northwest flow
will keep it cold and blustery. High temperatures will reach the mid
30`s across the Lake Plains and the upper 20`s/low 30`s across
higher terrain

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Wpc

...Trough and Developing Low in the East... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM Confidence: Average Considerable model spread persists through Day 3 with guidance still shifting the track of the coastal low expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night and move over the Northeast through Friday. Both the operational 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS trended slower and farther inland compared to the previous run. The 12Z ECMWF is still farther inland than the 12Z GFS, particularly into Day 3, and is similar to the 12Z NAM. However, notable spread in both the 12Z GEFS and 00Z ECENS suggest uncertainty persists and further shifting of the track can be expected. Given the continued inland trend of the ECMWF and its similarity to the NAM, the preference will now include the 12Z NAM. The track of this low is sensitive to northern stream shortwaves that will be interacting, including a phase on Thursday and of particular concern is the reinforcing shortwave that reaches the Great Lakes Thursday night which will influence the track of the primary trough/low through Friday and where the phasing takes place over the weekend (beyond the current Day 3 outlook). The 12Z ECMWF slowed both features with this run, so the reinforcing northern stream shortwave is now technically slow in the 12Z ECMWF than the 12Z GFS, but the slower leading trough has shifted the track farther inland in the ECMWF than the GFS. The intensity of the components are similar among the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and NAM resulting in similar QPF magnitude. The 12Z UKMET and CMC made considerable shifts in their surface low track closer to the guidance consensus, but remain considerable outliers. The preference has been updated to include the NAM with the GFS/ECMWF and the caveat that much is still to be determined with the timing and intensity of the interacting components of this low is still relevant.

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Wpc

...Trough and Developing Low in the East... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM Confidence: Average Considerable model spread persists through Day 3 with guidance still shifting the track of the coastal low expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night and move over the Northeast through Friday. Both the operational 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS trended slower and farther inland compared to the previous run. The 12Z ECMWF is still farther inland than the 12Z GFS, particularly into Day 3, and is similar to the 12Z NAM. However, notable spread in both the 12Z GEFS and 00Z ECENS suggest uncertainty persists and further shifting of the track can be expected. Given the continued inland trend of the ECMWF and its similarity to the NAM, the preference will now include the 12Z NAM. The track of this low is sensitive to northern stream shortwaves that will be interacting, including a phase on Thursday and of particular concern is the reinforcing shortwave that reaches the Great Lakes Thursday night which will influence the track of the primary trough/low through Friday and where the phasing takes place over the weekend (beyond the current Day 3 outlook). The 12Z ECMWF slowed both features with this run, so the reinforcing northern stream shortwave is now technically slow in the 12Z ECMWF than the 12Z GFS, but the slower leading trough has shifted the track farther inland in the ECMWF than the GFS. The intensity of the components are similar among the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and NAM resulting in similar QPF magnitude. The 12Z UKMET and CMC made considerable shifts in their surface low track closer to the guidance consensus, but remain considerable outliers. The preference has been updated to include the NAM with the GFS/ECMWF and the caveat that much is still to be determined with the timing and intensity of the interacting components of this low is still relevant.

If this happens then Roch Dave hats off!!! You have eyed this for a few days now!!!

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