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Upstate/Eastern New York


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I'm going big, I have this odd feeling we're gonna switch over much quicker than first anticipated and places to the ESE of the Lake are gonna get a nice hefty snowfall the next few days.  Nothing crazy like Nov 2016, but not bad so here goes.

SRYR   13"

KFZY    16"

KBUF   3"

KROC   8"

KWRT   6"

TUG 16-18" locally up to 2'

KBGM  4"

KITH     4"

 

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Erie County is gonna easily get 2-3" in spots, wow!  Already coming down at least at the rate of 1"/hr before it really gets cranking as Lake Huron connects and temps end up in the upper 20's.  That sets the stage for a prolonged LES for Erie belts, Congrats!

Seriously getting annoyed that I can't UL any images cause its capped at 1.95MG!  What can I do to change this, anyone?

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Bro we've seen so many diff snowfall total maps this evening that I'm just confused, seriously.  I wish there ws a device we could enter all the maps for the same time frame and it would spit out an Average across the board from 15 snow maps.  I think that would be interesting to say the least.  Maybe I'll e-mail De. Maue and ask him if this is in fact possible!

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You posted this bro

"WB map looks better for some reason. I posted it somewhere up above. Basically the same map but I just can't make out the totals on this map."

Was just responding to that..

We didn't even post the same model lol

I think east of 81 scores double digits..

 

wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.png

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

You posted this bro

"WB map looks better for some reason. I posted it somewhere up above. Basically the same map but I just can't make out the totals on this map."

Was just responding to that..

We didn't even post the same model lol

I think east of 81 scores double digits..

 

Gotcha, my bad!

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NWS still hanging onto the thought that this  is an east based LES event. QPF has been shown along the western south shore for 5 model cycles now. Ridiculous. They haven’t even hoisted advisories for Orleans or Niagara Counties: 
Late this afternoon and into tonight, the combination of the loss of
daytime heating and temperatures in the lower levels cooling a
degree or two will allow for a little more widespread snow
accumulation. Moisture continuing to wrap around the upper level low
will maintain light synoptic snows across much of the region.

There will be areas of enhanced snow within the light synoptic
snows. First, on a northwest flow over Lake Ontario and temperatures
becoming marginally cold enough for lake effect snow, a band of snow
is likely to form near an inverted surface trough on the southeast
side of Lake Ontario. This band may form as early as the mid
afternoon hours. As winds veer some tonight, this area of enhanced
snow may back as far westward as Monroe County. While weak lake
instability, there could be several inches of snow falling in a few
hours. Additionally not only the higher terrain of WNY, and the Tug
Hill...but areas such as the Buffalo Southtowns, and the Bristol
Hills could receive 3 to 5 inches of snow on an upslope flow.
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KBUF has a WWA for Northern Erie, Genesee for 5 to 9 inches 7pm tonight through tomorrow afternoon. There's discussion of a convergence band developing in the southtowns out through the Genesee Valley late this afternoon. I'm still thinking a couple inches best at KBUF but this area could receive the 5-9 they are predicting.

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There's going to be a wicked convergence zone in and around the Thruway Corridor, or just to its North, but its going to be somewhere in this vicinity for quite some time which should enhance the precip thats already falling throughout the area. These are always hard to depict where they will happen, sort of like a Norlun trough, if anyones familiar with those.

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