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PrinceFrederickWx

Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

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The main thing to keep an eye on is 0.1" at DCA gives Olaf an outright win, and 0.1" at RIC puts Stormpc back in the lead. Not hard to do 0.1" overnight in April, so both of them will be in the game a long time.

The other "recent" April event would be 1990 at IAD- if something like that were to occur, Bob Chill or WinterWxLuvr would win.

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The main thing to keep an eye on is 0.1" at DCA gives Olaf an outright win, and 0.1" at RIC puts Stormpc back in the lead. Not hard to do 0.1" overnight in April, so both of them will be in the game a long time.

The other "recent" April event would be 1990 at IAD- if something like that were to occur, Bob Chill or WinterWxLuvr would win.

And I can still win with the first 1.9" or better April snow event in Baltimore since 1924, provided that IAD gets no more than 1.9". :) 

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17 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Looks like they upped BWI's total by 0.1" to 18.3" for the season. This doesn't really change anything but here's the updated list. I guess it's a slight help to @RodneyS in a Hail Mary pass :lol:

full list.JPG

I'm sure that Stormpc is hoping that another 0.1" can be found for RIC.  In my case, I now need at least 1.8" at BWI, which has never happened there this late in the season.  However, prior to BWI, there were a few Baltimore snowstorms during April 3-11 that exceeded that total.  The big one was a mere 125 years ago -- April 10-11, 1894, when a two-day storm produced five inches.  

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2 hours ago, RodneyS said:

I'm sure that Stormpc is hoping that another 0.1" can be found for RIC.  In my case, I now need at least 1.8" at BWI, which has never happened there this late in the season.  However, prior to BWI, there were a few Baltimore snowstorms during April 3-11 that exceeded that total.  The big one was a mere 125 years ago -- April 10-11, 1894, when a two-day storm produced five inches.  

I'm ok if things end up as final. I will retire from Mid Atlantic Region board with a Championship in 2017 and a tiebreaker loss (2nd place) in 2019. A great run. Now if they post a contest in the Southeast region for next year I will enter that.

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1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

I'm ok if things end up as final. I will retire from Mid Atlantic Region board with a Championship in 2017 and a tiebreaker loss (2nd place) in 2019. A great run. Now if they post a contest in the Southeast region for next year I will enter that.

You should consider entering here next year again- you and olaf are like the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning of this contest! 

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On 4/8/2019 at 11:33 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s basically down now to the 0.1” at RIC to see if Stormpc can pull off an upset win- since that’s happened several times at RIC in mid/late April I’ll keep this open for about another 2-3 weeks. 

Yep, the Fat Lady has sung for all contestants except Stormpc, and even for him, she's warming up in the bullpen.  However, since this is the Mid-Atlantic -- i.e. Nats' -- bullpen, it's not quite over, even with an 10-run lead in the 9th inning. 

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Olaf’s just sitting on the football running out the clock. Coach@showmethesnow has already headed to the locker room and declined all post-game interviews. :lol:

And you're checking to see if all the balls are fully inflated.

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19 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Olaf’s just sitting on the football running out the clock. Coach@showmethesnow has already headed to the locker room and declined all post-game interviews. :lol:

Showme is fielding offers from other teams. Winning teams. Going to keep his mouth shut until he is sure he can hook up elsewhere before he starts telling the world how the ownership of his current team sucks.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Showme is fielding offers from other teams. Winning teams. Going to keep his mouth shut until he is sure he can hook up elsewhere before he starts telling the world how the ownership of his current team sucks.

I guess I'm with you then, let me know when the bad-mouthing can start. :D

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There are only two events that have occurred at RIC after this date: 0.2" on 4/21/1953 and 2.0" on 4/28/1898. There have been no changes from LWX or AKQ since my last update. Given that it's 4/16 and there's no indication of anything remotely close to snow on any model for RIC, I think we're safe to call it. So, congratulations to our champion @olafminesaw - attached is your trophy made of snow!

Thanks to everyone who played- this was the closest seasonal contest I've ever held!

Also thanks to @RodneyS and @Roger Smith for running a lot of the numbers too! 

I'll be back in November with another contest!

Trophy 2018-19.png

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Congratulations to Olaf. I will add to this, my concession and look forward to next years contest. Thanks again PFDKWx and Roger and Rodney. Well played.  

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Congrats to the winner and top ten leaderboard. It was an interesting winter even if not as epic as many had hoped. 

Maybe you should have a summer contest too, keep the interest up. Would suggest mean June to August temperature anomaly at BWI, total rainfall May to September at BWI and max temp at the four airports or just BWI. Maybe also number of severe weather warnings that include a chosen location (May to September). 

I don't think I should try to run a contest here, as a visitor to the shrine. 

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4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Congrats to the winner and top ten leaderboard. It was an interesting winter even if not as epic as many had hoped. 

Maybe you should have a summer contest too, keep the interest up. Would suggest mean June to August temperature anomaly at BWI, total rainfall May to September at BWI and max temp at the four airports or just BWI. Maybe also number of severe weather warnings that include a chosen location (May to September). 

I don't think I should try to run a contest here, as a visitor to the shrine. 

Baby #3 is on the way in May so I don’t know how much time I’ll have. Max temp at each airport during the summer would be an interesting contest though- could add quite a few locations where NWS tracks temps but not snowfall.

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Congratulations to Olaf for his razor-thin victory over Stormpc, and many thanks to PFDKWx and Roger for doing the heavy lifting.  As of late February, this contest could have gone a dozen different ways, as many pre-season forecasts were for a snowy March. However, the Snow Gods had other ideas, as they usually do.  

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11 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

There are only two events that have occurred at RIC after this date: 0.2" on 4/21/1953 and 2.0" on 4/28/1898. There have been no changes from LWX or AKQ since my last update. Given that it's 4/16 and there's no indication of anything remotely close to snow on any model for RIC, I think we're safe to call it. So, congratulations to our champion @olafminesaw - attached is your trophy made of snow!

Thanks to everyone who played- this was the closest seasonal contest I've ever held!

Also thanks to @RodneyS and @Roger Smith for running a lot of the numbers too! 

I'll be back in November with another contest!

Trophy 2018-19.png

It's not over till the FV3 says so!

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1 hour ago, tplbge said:

It's not over till the FV3 says so!

So...August?

26 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Coach @showmethesnow gets a first round draft pick next year. :lol:

Looks like he’s in the game for a lottery pick. I heard he’s real excited.

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a5cb6a84e2e65535973

Unfortunately, I’m in the worst possible spot. Too bad to make the top cut, too good for the first pick. Still embarrassing.

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a5cb6a9094371713332

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