Winter 2018/2019 Professional Met Forecasts

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I give them credit for making the effort to do the research and put the thought into it that they do, and I appreciate it. Kind of early to say how the winter will turn out. I'm sure they like snow and a good storm as much as you and I and many others who post here. I like the way things look, but the weather can sure humble you if you get cocky.

I certainly didnt take his post one way or the other not to mention I would never have stuck my neck out with an outlook if I didnt expect criticisms so its all good I dont take anything here personal.

Being a snow freak I hope my outlook busts horribly and I95 corridor sees 1500% AN snowfall this year 

Things look decent going forward for now but I will add just a few things. Last year we had epic patterns and teleconnections show up in the LR....some looks materialized, others didn't, but in terms of real weather, the epic pattern we DID see were more or less duds at the surface for us. Blocking was epic, undercutting energy was there, etc but more times than not it never materialized so while getting the LR players to show up on the field is one thing , getting a storm to workout is whole different ballgame.

Also, I have some concerns regarding the early starts to winters past and how those early starts correlated to lackluster seasons in Philly proper overall. Couple that with many El Nino years in general in research shows those Decembers mostly provided 180 degree flips in the pattern. Again, I cant say for certain but history and the above factors say December could flip on us to a not-so-favorable look.

Hoping yesterday's storm is a precursor to the type of winter were are headed into but I have my reservations thus why my outlook is what it is.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 11/16/2018 at 2:39 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

I certainly didnt take his post one way or the other not to mention I would never have stuck my neck out with an outlook if I didnt expect criticisms so its all good I dont take anything here personal.

Being a snow freak I hope my outlook busts horribly and I95 corridor sees 1500% AN snowfall this year 

Things look decent going forward for now but I will add just a few things. Last year we had epic patterns and teleconnections show up in the LR....some looks materialized, others didn't, but in terms of real weather, the epic pattern we DID see were more or less duds at the surface for us. Blocking was epic, undercutting energy was there, etc but more times than not it never materialized so while getting the LR players to show up on the field is one thing , getting a storm to workout is whole different ballgame.

Also, I have some concerns regarding the early starts to winters past and how those early starts correlated to lackluster seasons in Philly proper overall. Couple that with many El Nino years in general in research shows those Decembers mostly provided 180 degree flips in the pattern. Again, I cant say for certain but history and the above factors say December could flip on us to a not-so-favorable look.

Hoping yesterday's storm is a precursor to the type of winter were are headed into but I have my reservations thus why my outlook is what it is.

In regards to your reservations about early starts...

Now, I am not sure how closely we can evaluate/compare Philly vs. Baltimore annual snow totals, but...I've been looking at the totals going all the way back to 1883-84...Specifically, I've been zeroing in on November snowfall! And from what I can see, getting an inch or two in November resulted in a good or great winter more often than a dud...

And even if it does flip after like mid-December...given how many weak-moderate El Niño years hit average snowfall or above...would that really be a concern? (unless we had a highly positive AO or something)

Also, you mentioned the good looks that didn't materialize last year...now, ya have to wonder if the result would have been different in a Niño, lol But you're right...LR looks aren't everything, but you do have different elements at play this season vs. last season, of course... 

But at the very least, the probability that we go into December with a -AO and -NAO look seems to be increasing!  (especially if the LR guidance continues to show it by the end of this week!). So we shall see (and of course...around the mid-Atlantic, ya always gotta watch with tempered excitement until the storms actually get here, lol)

[RedSky]

I would say October is the early snow kiss of death for winter. The snows of November 1995,2014 kinda speak volumes of November snow being ok.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In regards to your reservations about early starts...

Now, I am not sure how closely we can evaluate/compare Philly vs. Baltimore annual snow totals, but...I've been looking at the totals going all the way back to 1883-84...Specifically, I've been zeroing in on November snowfall! And from what I can see, getting an inch or two in November resulted in a good or great winter more often than a dud...

And even if it does flip after like mid-December...given how many weak-moderate El Niño years hit average snowfall or above...would that really be a concern? (unless we had a highly positive AO or something)

Also, you mentioned the good looks that didn't materialize last year...now, ya have to wonder if the result would have been different in a Niño, lol But you're right...LR looks aren't everything, but you do have different elements at play this season vs. last season, of course... 

But at the very least, the probability that we go into December with a -AO and -NAO look seems to be increasing!  (especially if the LR guidance continues to show it by the end of this week!). So we shall see (and of course...around the mid-Atlantic, ya always gotta watch with tempered excitement until the storms actually get here, lol)

If ever there were a season where my winter outlook had a chance to bust severely, this is probably the one. Like I posted in the final few sentences of my outlook earlier in this thread, much will hinge on how the N Atl blocking (NAO) takes shape. I will repeat this idea again....we will have our storms and moisture and we will have the cold outbreaks given the typical nature of Nino years but generally the i95 corridor's fate is determined by the NAO. The looks going forward on some of the ens as we enter late Nov and early Dec are good ones. Neg NAO is there on the progs. It us whay we want to see if you like snow. It is whether this feature can hold for most of the winter or if we see an el Nino driven reversal with the pattern rolling over on itself which is what will determine how the winter plays out in our sub forum. Fingers are crossed. Some ens hold the neg NAO thru the run others are fading it out quickly. Time will tell. 

[ChescoWx]

JB at Weatherbell now liking the little event this Thursday with a good chance the snow will carry to the coast with more than NWS offices are now thinking (my P&C has 20% chance) - while not a big event maybe a little whitening

[JTA66]

Quick update from Paul Pastelok of AccuWx -- still going with a cold & stormy Jan and Feb. More ice events for central and lower mid-Atlantic. He also thinks there can be storms that "will result in one- to two-day disruptions and shutdowns".

Fingers crossed!!

[ChescoWx]

From JB at WB today on the potential ride of the 4 horseman....

1) Analogs. In each winter analoged from back in August, it was darkest before the dawn. 2002-2003 has been shown so many times one has to have it memorized. 2006-2007 There was virtually no winter through mid-January then Feb turned out to be one of the coldest winters on record in the midwest, The snow was lacking in the east that year, with the only notable storm the "jet blue" storm, where a forecasted change to rain and a rise to 40 degrees turned into 25 and 4-8 inches of sleet, forcing a Jet Blue plane to sit on a runway in NY for 8 hours or so waiting for the thaw to take off

2009-2010. The major pre-Christmas Snowstorm masked what could have been a debacle, If it were 200-300 miles further south and a week earlier it would have been like this month, As it is, the day after Christmas a huge thaw wiped the snow out in many places while a blizzard blasted the plains ( sound familiar) the 10 days of blow torch in mid Jan had winter given up for dead, but then snowmeggedon developed, and all was forgotten

14-15 After a frigid November Winter disappeared for 40 days ( this year it’s more like 20 as the warmth spread in mid Dec) but in 2014 it was all month and well into Jan. Anyone recall the Patriots playoff game Jan 17? ( Deflateogate) upper 40s and rain. Then waht happened

So, if it happens as I think the precedent is certainly their form chosen analogs

Stratwarm

This is dramatic and real, My take is this initiates the step down period, but looking for "the polar vortex" as was pushed across the media back on Dec 18 for late in Dec or early in Jan we did not agree with, The research I have done says the coldest hits 30-45 days after which would put us in the Jan 15-Feb 14 period as to when to look for this The 3 samples are impressive from late December, resulting in the severe periods in 1966,1985,1994

2004 did not have this stratwarm

MJO antics, this looks like it’s for real. lack of coupling so far between the ONI el nino and the SOI, if coupled later is likely to add to the situation. Right now, the pattern is such that it looks like the fight between the MJO La nina and el nino signals, if resolved to the el nino in both, then the likely result if it stays active is deep cold

Modoki/sst

The warm ring is still there, the Modoki look is still there. Late starting ONI el Nino winters have all had major 30-45 days cold and/or snowy periods for the US.

While there are other factors and counter factors, it’s my take that its quite rare when all 4 of these are on the field, If they come together, then we will not have been cold enough as 10-20 days can not only wipe out a warmer average but send it into the tank, Let’s keep in mind that in 1977-1978 winter it was close to 15 below normal FOR 3 MONTHS in parts of the Midwest. Such cold is inconceivable to most forecasters now as they are much younger, and even the old-timers look back in awe. But the question is, is it something that can no longer happen. It will be interesting to see what the answer is from the atmosphere, our winter idea with the core of -5 was looked at as very bold, and given sentiment now, many have dismissed it, I still feel it’s the mid ground of options , the most extreme one being if the 4 horsemen ride. If they do, it’s not like it was not there to see

[The Iceman]

Lot's of pro's looking in serious trouble on their massive winter calls. almost 2/3 through met winter and it's been as ratty as can be. February will need to be historical like March last year for most to even have a shot of verifying. I'll be happy to get to average. That accuwx guy in the 2nd post has absolutely nailed this winter so far. Curious what he thinks about the upcoming pattern.

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Lot's of pro's looking in serious trouble on their massive winter calls. almost 2/3 through met winter and it's been as ratty as can be. February will need to be historical like March last year for most to even have a shot of verifying. I'll be happy to get to average. That accuwx guy in the 2nd post has absolutely nailed this winter so far. Curious what he thinks about the upcoming pattern.

We got it all in one shot late last year so I mean they were wrong but still "right"

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Lot's of pro's looking in serious trouble on their massive winter calls. almost 2/3 through met winter and it's been as ratty as can be. February will need to be historical like March last year for most to even have a shot of verifying. I'll be happy to get to average. That accuwx guy in the 2nd post has absolutely nailed this winter so far. Curious what he thinks about the upcoming pattern.

You sure about that? He called for a +NAO. Starting Dec 1 thru Jan 1 NAO was essentially negative or neutral certainly not positive. Then it went neutral to slight positive Jan 1 thru Jan 14 and has really only been legit positive for about a week now. I didnt see the rest of the guy's outlook but based on the 2nd post it was based solely on a +NAO all winter which we just began seeing about 7-10 days ago.

[The Iceman]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You sure about that? He called for a +NAO. Starting Dec 1 thru Jan 1 NAO was essentially negative or neutral certainly not positive. Then it went neutral to slight positive Jan 1 thru Jan 14 and has really only been legit positive for about a week now. I didnt see the rest of the guy's outlook but based on the 2nd post it was based solely on a +NAO all winter which we just began seeing about 7-10 days ago.

Save for the end of December it's been a majority positive. We saw one brief dip at the end of December then that was it. Definitely far from the sustain -nao coming in xxxx weeks that many others called...

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Save for the end of December it's been a majority positive. We saw one brief dip at the end of December then that was it. Definitely far from the sustain -nao coming in xxxx weeks that many others called...

I was looking at the wrong graph. My apologies. Yeah pretty decent call thus far. 

[JTA66]

"What happens in December, the winter will remember", an interweb met used to say.

[ChescoWx]

JB on the Euro weeklies

For the time of the year, this is the coldest run I have seen on a European Weekly. Again, the nature of ensembles is to wash out extremes in the longer term, so it is impressive. We will be very dry in the eastern Indian Ocean over the next 40 days. There is increased precipitation shown for the last week of the forecast period, which would mean we put a 15-day clock on the winter after that, That would take us past March 15, and this should start breaking down then anyway.

This is as bullish of a run as I have ever seen in a late January ensemble, running the table into mid-March. I am almost certain the temperatures will support our overall idea, but we will find out soon. The mid-February to mid-March period, though centered farther to the southeast and later in the season, could be as impressively cold against averages as the January 15-February 14 period is likely to turn out over the Heartland (Midwest, Great Lakes and mid to upper Mississippi Valley). I suspect it will be more in line with the February forecast we have out.