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Tropical Storm Chris

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image.thumb.png.c1d4486af71f81794b471e1d2d777f7d.png

 

Looking good on shortwave infrared. Take away those bands and add more symmetry and it would be annular, or very close.

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1 hour ago, JWilliam9830 said:

image.thumb.png.c1d4486af71f81794b471e1d2d777f7d.png

 

Looking good on shortwave infrared. Take away those bands and add more symmetry and it would be annular, or very close.

Whatever airmass came in from the northwest totally took away the banding structure on the western half of the storm. Also that convective blob seems to be spraying out of the eyewall and keeping the western side of the storm healthy and elongated despite the westerly shear. Yes goes 16 is very addictive.

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105mph CAT 2 at 11pm... NHC intensity forecast caps at 110mph

 

Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...CHRIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 71.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

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Hurricane Chris Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of
the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an
inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery
becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer
water.  Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were
90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt.
Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial
intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.

The initial motion remains 050/9.  Chris is becoming embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the
southeast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the
northeastern United states.  The combination of these features
should cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North
Atlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in
about 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track
and the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster
than the previous forecast.

The eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler
water south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely
slow the intensification rate.  Otherwise, conditions appear
favorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the
intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris
moves north of the Gulf Stream.  Extratropical transition should
begin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete
before the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland.  After
that, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses
the North Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast is increased from
the previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends,
and it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h
based on the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 34.2N  71.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 35.8N  69.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 38.8N  64.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 42.8N  59.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 46.6N  53.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0000Z 53.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0000Z 57.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0000Z 61.5N  10.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Hey question guys... my parents are on a cruise leaving Bermuda tonight to come back to NY. They are changing course and wrapping under the hurricane. What kind of waves can they expect? 

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1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Hey question guys... my parents are on a cruise leaving Bermuda tonight to come back to NY. They are changing course and wrapping under the hurricane. What kind of waves can they expect? 

It’s pretty small and fetch is a major factor in sea state generation. I would expect them to easily pass by with minimal impact. If he were a Cape Verde storm say like bill with a wind field triple the size they would. BNe in trouble 

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8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s pretty small and fetch is a major factor in sea state generation. I would expect them to easily pass by with minimal impact. If he were a Cape Verde storm say like bill with a wind field triple the size they would. BNe in trouble 

Env. Canada warning: "Hurricane-force winds are possible for portions of the Scotian slope waters south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of the storm as it tracks through the Canadian marine district." 

Why is it different for the cruise ship versus the sort of height predicted by the government mets? What does "fetch is a major factor in sea state generation" mean, please?

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xppdNHD.gif

Boomerang eye lol.

But it's hanging in there, and looks way better than Irene.

Edit: Didn't take long to get the eye back.  After a few hours of looking crap and Ryan MAU counting saying Chris peaked on twitter, it now has a healthy baseball field. Or maybe an Xmas tree.

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3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where is the cruise ship going to be with respect to Chris?

 

The cruise left Bermuda last night and heading back home to NY by Thursday. They couldn’t go direct because they would go straight into the path of the hurricane. So they are going under it. Captain told everyone moderate seas. What is that 4-8 foot waves?

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Now it would be nice if we had a recon to sample this short lived sting-jet.  HMON and HWRF both showing it during ET transition.  GFS has it but not nearly as strong. It is accompanied by an unstable layer just above the surface and an increased pressure gradient lasting about 12hrs. It dies when it hits the abruptly cooler SSTs.

 

v1dgaCr.png

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Weakening has begun

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

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The window for Chris to reach MH status has closed. For a while yesterday, I was convinced it would make it. Still, a very nice intensification phase Monday evening through Tuesday. A solid Category 2 isn't too shabby considering the region of development in July. As for impacts, it will be interesting to see how the ET transition completes and what (if any) effects for portions of Nova Scotia and New Foundland. Based on track and modeling, Chris may miss NS altogether and only impact NF from the weaker NW side of circulation. I certainly don't think this will be the worst they've seen recently.

 

 

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Yeah that's pretty oddly high too. That would generally reduce to a 10 m wind of about 70 kts when the nhc advisory intensity attm was only 60 kts. With the air temperature lower than sst you wouldnt expect a robust llj just above the surface. I wonder if there was some sort of isallobaric/baroclinic effect on the backside during et transition?  

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Im still a little unsure of the effects here in stj. We might get a little wind smack this evening given the track guidance seems to have been coming back north a touch the past 12 hours. Could go over us or just to our north?  

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These are the rainfall and wind reports in Newfoundland. Pretty pedestrian for these parts, really. 

1. SUMMARY OF RAINFALL IN MILLIMETRES: 

GANDER INT'L AIRPORT: 76.4 
LETHBRIDGE: 76 
GANDER CLIMATE: 72.6 
BURNSIDE: 72 
TERRA NOVA: 71.4 
ST. ALBAN'S: 70.1 
APPLETON: 65.3 
BONAVISTA: 61.6 
NORTH HARBOUR: 52.6 
PORTLAND: 51.4 
BURIN: 41.7 
ST. PIERRE: 38.8 
MARYSTOWN: 38.1 
ST. LAWRENCE: 30.5 
GRAND FALLS-WINDSOR: 28.7 
WINTERLAND: 25.5 

2. SUMMARY OF PEAK WIND GUSTS IN KILOMETRES PER HOUR: 

BONAVISTA LIGHTHOUSE: 109 
CAPE PINE: 106 
GREEN ISLAND-FORTUNE BAY: 105 
BONAVISTA: 102 
POOL'S ISLAND: 102 
FERRYLAND: 97 
PORT DE GRAVE: 96 
TOPSAIL BLUFF: 96 
DEER PARK: 95 
ST. JOHN'S INT'L AIRPORT: 91 
CAPE RACE: 87 
ST. PIERRE: 80

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