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meatwad

Pittsburgh PA "Spring" and Summer 2018

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Last nights eps, but still hold true today. Rapid intensification with landfall very uncertain. Its such a strange situation with that steering ridge. I used the histroical storm mapper and Flo  is in uncharted territory. Not a whole lot of storms can be where she is and make it to the coast. 

 

P.S. i love the amount of activity that is happening in this forum right now. Welcome back!

Screen Shot 2018-09-07 at 1.01.03 PM.png

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7 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

What part of Allegheny County ?

South Hills area.  I guess I'm on the border of a bunch of different municipalities (Mt. Lebanon, Castle Shannon, Bethel Park).

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7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Last nights eps, but still hold true today. Rapid intensification with landfall very uncertain. Its such a strange situation with that steering ridge. I used the histroical storm mapper and Flo  is in uncharted territory. Not a whole lot of storms can be where she is and make it to the coast. 

 

P.S. i love the amount of activity that is happening in this forum right now. Welcome back!

Screen Shot 2018-09-07 at 1.01.03 PM.png

If I was a betting man, I'd wager it is more likely to skim the coast and mostly push out to sea.  That said, no doubt anything is possible right now.

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11 hours ago, jwilson said:

South Hills area.  I guess I'm on the border of a bunch of different municipalities (Mt. Lebanon, Castle Shannon, Bethel Park).

There's kind of a semi micro-climate in that area depending on elevation, where you can get enhanced LES at times.

Growing up I lived in the west end, and it always seemed during LES events, while we were bone dry, your area had at least a C-1" on the ground.

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So, we are about to get crushed with possibly 5 inches of rain through Monday...then Florence could come in next week.

 

I sincerely hope Florence misses our are because the effects of that could be catastrophic. 

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44 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

So, we are about to get crushed with possibly 5 inches of rain through Monday...then Florence could come in next week.

 

I sincerely hope Florence misses our are because the effects of that could be catastrophic. 

4-6 inches looks likely. 

With models starting to advertise a slow down of forward motion to possibly stall of Florence after landfall (assuming it even makes it) I'd put impacts here as unlikely. Typically we need forward speed to increase after landfall to see impacts or some sort of interaction with a trough. All of this is subject to change though, but biggest impact would likely be more rain on top of what we see this weekend vs any wind or other impacts. 

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00z spaghetti model. These have the recon data. If you are looking for effects here I think the dramatic reduction of speed will limit even if it took a good track. Look how little it moves from HR 120 to 144 VS earlier. Verbatim as modeled now a huge disaster for NC. :(

 

06L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.d9e5f0f346ead21a29cc19f7821a92d7.png

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8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I haven’t checked the gauge this morning, but good Lord it has been coming down for hours.


.

I’d imagine that a lot of creeks are going to hit their breaking point soon. 

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Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1040 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

PAC003-125-129-092345-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FA.W.0043.180909T1440Z-180909T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington PA-Allegheny PA-Westmoreland PA-
1040 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Southern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 745 PM EDT Sunday.

* At 1038 AM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain in the warned area and
  low spots have taken on water leading to some road closures. This
  trend will continue through the afternoon with steady rain
  expected.

  FLOODING...           Expected.

  ESTIMATED RAINFALL... 2 to 2.5 inches.

  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...1 inch.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Mount Lebanon...
  Bethel Park...                    McMurray...
  McKeesport...                     Washington...
  Canonsburg...                     Gastonville...
  West Mifflin...                   North Side Pittsburgh...
  Baldwin...                        Upper St. Clair...

Please report flooding by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4009 7966 4011 7967 4011 7971 4013 7975
      4013 7987 4011 7985 4009 7984 4007 7990
      4007 7988 4004 7988 4000 8005 4001 8006
      3999 8013 4001 8018 4001 8021 4033 8026
      4049 8002 4029 7977 4010 7964

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Just checked my CoCoRAHS gauge during a Steeler break:

since 6 AM - 2.32"

total since 6AM Friday - 3.48" as of 2:30PM today

Yard is flooded and I got a leak.  The rain is hitting the east side of the house pretty hard which it rarely does so it found a way in somewhere.

My Davis station is way behind, I gotta figure out what's wrong with it.  Usually it's a bug or debris stuck in the hole or the tipping cups are dirty.

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12 z Euro, flo looks like she can make a run close to us. All depends on how quick she can make it inland before the front from the northwest kicks her out. Of course this is the euros idea. Some of the models show a terrible scenario of days and days of battering for the outer banks.

Screen Shot 2018-09-09 at 3.25.04 PM.png

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13 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I have 5.76 here. 4.38 of it since midnight. 

Just measured again. Ive added another .35. Brings me to a total of 5.75. Its been really light here for the last several hours. 

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8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Think we will ever see a snowfall map that looks something like this? Bullseye

If we ever get a tropical storm formed during the winter months that leaks up here, I'd say maybe.  Given the state of climate change, I'd say we're probably not too far off from something like that occurring, but the question will be whether it's cold enough to support snow.  Even at a 10:1 ratio, 5" of rain is 50" of snow.  That's one heck of a storm.

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11 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said:

Will we say anything from Florence? 

The Euro especially has her drifting in our way and giving us some rain. I don't think it will be anything near what we just got over the weekend, but maybe a little gusty and some showers.

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