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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

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7 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

@jaxjagman- you expecting any severe cells from tropical storm Barry over the next few day?

 I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

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12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

 I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

Penn state- that’s awesome man.  I hope it went well for you guys!!  Thanks for the update on the severe side of the spectrum.  

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On 7/14/2019 at 8:28 PM, jaxjagman said:

 I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

I have a confirmed tornado on the ground 20 miles from my house right now.  I’m under a tornado Warning until 1:30.  I’ll keep you guys updated 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England, as well as the
   Tennessee Valley, this afternoon to early evening.

   ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England...
   Additional amplification of the large-scale trough over the eastern
   CONUS will contribute to a slight cooling of mid-level temperatures
   and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft coincident with a
   slow-southeastward-moving front across the central Appalachians
   toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. 

   The coverage of yesterday's storms across most of this region has
   impacted thermodynamic profiles, with surface temperatures/dewpoints
   running at least several degrees lower than this time (late
   morning/midday) yesterday. As noted in the prior Outlook discussion,
   12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and
   Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower
   compared to 12Z yesterday and have weaker mid-level lapse rates.

   That said, moisture will steadily recover and ample insolation is
   noted at midday across the Mid-Atlantic in the lee of the
   Appalachians, with MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg possible (highest near
   the coast). As compared to yesterday, somewhat stronger wind
   profiles between 2-6km AGL will also be a factor for individual
   storm longevity/organized storms. Multicells will be common and the
   possibility exists for a few transient supercells from far southern
   New York/northern New Jersey into southern New England. Damaging
   winds will be the most common risk through the afternoon into early
   evening.

   ...Mid-South and Tennessee Valley...
   A moist air mass (70-75F surface dewpoints) remains ahead of a
   southeastward-moving cold front. As morning cloud cover thins,
   increasing cumuliform/thunderstorm development are expected this
   afternoon, particularly downstream of a pair of residual MCVs. Wet
   microbursts yielding localized wind damage will be the main risk.

   While weak vertical shear will tend to limit overall organization
   and risk magnitude, a somewhat more focused/organized severe risk
   may exist this afternoon into early evening across western/middle
   Tennessee and nearby southern Kentucky and perhaps northern portions
   of Mississippi/Alabama. Enhanced winds are noted with the MCV near
   the Mississippi River, with 30-40 kt west-southwesterly winds
   between 4-6 km in recent (16Z) Paducah, KY WFO-88D VWP data.

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Then SPC drops that 'watch not expected' mesoscale discussion. Went about like tropical depression 3. Monday was kind of a choke day on those two fronts, pun intended at the mid-latitudes.

However post-frontal paradise, mild temps and low humidity. will verify nicely!

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Noticed some big cells in Middle Valley areas. Heavy rain here right now but just a rumble or two of thunder every 4 or 5 minutes so far.  Looks like Nashville is getting some flooding too.  Looks like cells in Eastern Arkansas might reach West Tennessee. At least the heat may break there. The H.I in Memphis is 111 and 112 in Jackson with an 80 degree dp.

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Chattanooga hit 100 degrees (dews 72+) before the thunderstorms Tuesday. Normally dews dip into the 60s at 100 deg, but not this time. Glad that's over. Saw Nashville storm anvils but those cells did not make it into Chatty. Lightning and thunder started slowly since it was new development for Chatty. By evening the light and thunder show improved.

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Be nice to watch and hear some good t-storms

 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A progressive pattern at mid/upper levels is forecast through the
   extended forecast period. An upper trough/low should move quickly
   eastward across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, and
   Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Thursday. A cold front is also expected to
   shift quickly eastward parts of these regions. Minimal instability
   is currently shown by medium-range guidance ahead of the front,
   owing mainly to poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Therefore,
   severe potential Thursday afternoon ahead of the front appears low.

   Another upper trough should amplify and shift eastward across the
   western CONUS and into the Plains from Day 4/Thursday into Day
   5/Friday. There is still variability with the amplitude of this
   feature by Day 5/Friday, which impacts the degree of low-level mass
   response and moisture return across the Plains. Some severe risk may
   ultimately develop Friday evening/night across part of the central
   Plains, but this threat may remain rather isolated. There is
   currently too much uncertainty regarding instability and the
   evolution of the upper trough to include any probabilities for
   organized severe thunderstorms.

   Differences regarding the evolution of the upper trough across the
   Plains and eastern CONUS become much more pronounced from Day
   6/Saturday onward. Still, depending on low-level moisture return,
   there may be isolated severe potential across parts of the southern
   Plains into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast next
   weekend into early next week ahead of a cold front. However, overall
   predictability remains far too low to include any areas at this
   time.
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ECMWF is saber rattling Dixie Alley 2nd run in a row. GFS is less interested. SPC seems to be leaning Euro.

It's way out of climo. Dixie does not have the October rebound like the Plains. I'd like to see this for a few more days. Also the Euro mysteriously has the LLJ totally AWOL. Odd. At any rate it's something more interesting to watch than the SER.

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Seems like the GFS and Euro met somewhat halfway last night,weak and weaker instability.Nothing much to see right now.Good news i reckon  seems like over an inch of rain,least right now.

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looks more wind by the outflows,either way,HRRR is not doing very well,we are fixing to get some good rains soon into the Mid Valley

 

Tornado Warning
TNC023-039-071-077-109-070445-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0033.191007T0400Z-191007T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
  Northeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee...
  Northern Hardin County in western Tennessee...
  East central Chester County in western Tennessee...
  Southern Decatur County in western Tennessee...

* Until 1145 PM CDT.

* At 1100 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
  producing a tornado was located near Jacks Creek, or 10 miles
  southeast of Henderson, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Adamsville, Decaturville, Sardis, Jacks Creek, Morris Chapel,
  Montgomery, Scotts Hill, Saltillo, Milledgeville, Enville, Right,
  Haney, Hinkle, Roby, Pleasant Grove, Cabo, Red Walnut, Thurman,
  Lick Skillet and Sibley.
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Subtle changes each run by the Euro.OZ run Euro wants to develop a potent shortwave into the lower MS/Valley which comes through west of Nashville OZ Tuesday.

 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Day 4/Saturday: A weak upper shortwave trough over eastern portions
   of the Plains on Saturday will quickly lift northeast. At the
   surface, a weak cold front will sweep across the Upper Midwest/Great
   Lakes while stalling over the southern Plains. Meanwhile, guidance
   varies on the intensity of a tropical disturbance as it tracks near
   the northern Gulf coast/southeastern U.S. on Saturday. Reference the
   Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center for
   more details on this system. How this low evolves could influence
   severe potential across parts of the northern and eastern Gulf coast
   states into GA/SC on Saturday, though severe potential appears low
   at this time. 

   Days 5-7/Sunday-Tuesday:  Severe potential is expected to increase
   on Sunday as a more intense shortwave trough ejects eastward from
   the Rockies into the Plains on Monday. Strong deep-layer
   southwesterly flow will develop from the southern Plains to the
   Upper Midwest as the trough deepens over the Plains. The ECMWF and
   GFS are in better agreement over the position of an intensifying
   surface low compared to yesterday, with the low tracking across SD
   through the afternoon before lifting northeast into MN overnight. A
   trailing cold front will push eastward across the Plains, with some
   timing differences among various guidance. Despite this, models are
   fairly consistent in moist return flow bringing 60s surface
   dewpoints northward to at least the Ozark Plateau eastward toward
   the Mid-South. At least a narrow corridor of severe potential is
   expected ahead of the cold front where a favorable combination of
   instability, steepening midlevel lapse rates, strong shear and upper
   forcing for ascent will align. Over the past few days, this corridor
   has been most consistently indicated by medium-range guidance across
   parts of north TX, eastern OK into  adjacent parts of KS/MO/AR.
   Confidence has increased sufficiently to include 15% severe
   probabilities, through this area likely will change some in come
   days as forecast details hopefully become more clear.

   A severe threat could continue into Monday across parts of the
   mid/lower MS Valley vicinity eastward toward the Appalachians as the
   cold front continues to surge eastward. A very moist airmass will be
   in place downstream of the front, but timing differences in the
   eastward progression of the front among various model output is
   large, decreasing forecast confidence. The cold front will continue
   to shift eastward across the eastern U.S. and is expected to move
   offshore most of the Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. Depending
   on timing, some severe threat is possible across parts of the
   Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, but again, confidence remains low.

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Alright time to get serious* after two cynical posts today (other threads). 

GFS and Euro are finally lined up on the Plains Sunday. That's going into Ozarks trash so no travel for me. Monday could go in the Lower Miss Valley into the Tennessee Valley if everything lined up. Turning with height has improved over previously forecast junk hodos. Moisture is there. Probably have an ongoing line of storms in progress. That would keep things mainly wind.

While I'm not too excited about Monday, it's a whole lot more exciting than praying the October weather pattern somehow holds on into November. Think KC Chiefs blowing leads. Kills my optimism about anything.

*Sorry I guess it's all relative, lol!

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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the
   lower Mississippi Valley, into portions of the lower Ohio Valley,
   posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

   ...Discussion...
   Rather amplified large-scale troughing over the interior U.S. may
   take on more of a negative tilt while progressing across the
   Mississippi Valley during this period.  Smaller-scale embedded
   perturbations/developments remain more unclear due to sizable spread
   within model output, but it does appear that there may be
   substantive further deepening of the primary associated
   lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone.  The center of this feature is
   expected to migrate from the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper
   Midwest Monday through Monday night, with an occluding surface front
   surging east of the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians.

   Lapse rates within much of the moistening portion of the warm sector
   of the cyclone are generally forecast to remain weak, which may
   limit CAPE to around 500-1000 J/kg within a pre-frontal plume across
   the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley.

   South to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow may include 50-70
   kt at 850 mb, and 70-90+ kt at 500 mb, but there may be a tendency
   for the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields to shift north of the
   destabilizing warm sector early in the period.

   Still, there appears potential for the environment to become
   conducive to the development of a combination of one or more broken
   lines of storms and discrete supercells, particularly during the day
   Monday across Louisiana, Mississippi, and adjacent portions of
   southeast Arkansas and western Alabama, into portions of middle
   Tennessee, which probably will be accompanied by a risk for damaging
   winds and a few tornadoes.

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Sunday afternoon SPC gave the Monday outlook a haircut. Probably valid. LLJ weakens going into eveing. That's just ugly. One looks for it to strengthen going into evening. HRRR has stuff ahead of the line, but it's the HRRR out 36 hours LOL. WRF versions don't and I think I'll believe meh for HSV to CHA. Wake me up in May.

Edit: Wake me up when Mahomes is back.

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Have to wait and see into next weekend,WPC seems to be going half way with the Euro and GFS but right now the GFS is much faster.Euro shows the upper level ridge building into the Valley,with a more Bermuda high with a warm front lifting into the lower OV, this would put the Valley into the warm sector,but the lapse rates look really poor right now.But either way what the Euro shows right now this should be some sort of flood threat somewhere in the Valley with the low level shear getting cranked up along with the LLJ,least that what it shows right now

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Interesting morning in west TN today. Had multiple severe cells come thru, lots of rain and wind.  Apparently Memphis had a tornado touch down around the cottonwood apartment complex area.  

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Sure enough MEM damage survey rates EF-1. Little drama for the Mid South to round out an active 12 hours starting back in OK/AR and of course Dallas.

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On 10/22/2019 at 9:35 AM, nrgjeff said:

Sure enough MEM damage survey rates EF-1. Little drama for the Mid South to round out an active 12 hours starting back in OK/AR and of course Dallas.

 I guess it’s a good thing that this system moved through just after sunrise instead of during the night.  There’s a few neighborhoods that got hit pretty hard.  I Have a friend in Memphis who sent me a picture, his neighbor had a enormous Oak tree fall thru the front of the house.  Lots of power outages as well.  

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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019

   Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Recent runs of the medium-range guidance have come into better
   agreement regarding the position of a deep and broad upper trough
   expected to be over the CONUS on D4/Tuesday. Model consensus now
   places this trough from the Hudson Bay through northern CA at 12Z
   D4/Tuesday. Model consensus regarding the overall evolution of this
   upper trough is also good, although the speed of eastward
   progression differs. The faster GFS solution is currently the
   outlier. Progression of this system and its attendant cold front
   will dictate the quality of moisture return ahead of it as well as
   the location for any potential severe thunderstorms. Some severe
   threat may materialize across the Southeast/TN Valley mid-week but
   model differences are too high for enough forecast confidence to
   outlook any areas.
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45 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

@jaxjagman did you see the pictures of multiple big trucks blown over on the Tennessee River Bridge I-40 in Decatur county.  Looks like 4 or 5 guys had a rough day, wind gust atop the bridge must of been insane.

 
Those straight line winds must have been howling
 
 

 

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Have to wait and see upcoming,both the GFS and Euro this afternoon shows a chance of severe thunderstorms even Wed NOW.The last run of the Euro, last nights 0Z run compared to this afternoons run has sped the front up almost 6 hours and now brings it across the Mid Valley now 18z Thursday and then to the east but it strenghtens the LLJ as it seemingly crosses east of I-65,GFS is still faster and WPC shows it as the outlier.Looks like the heaviest rain by the Euro is east of I-65  could get 3-4",could even be higher with convection

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 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

   Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
   parts of the central Gulf Coast States to the Cumberland Plateau
   through early morning Thursday.

   ...Central Gulf Coast to the Cumberland Plateau...
   Two primary convective scenarios are apparent through the period. A
   leading low-level warm advection regime is supporting a swath of
   ongoing showers with embedded thunder from the central Gulf Coast
   through AL. A belt of strong low-level flow centered on northern AL
   will pivot northeast, becoming increasingly separated from the
   gradient of weak buoyancy to the south. Poor mid-level lapse rates
   and pervasive stratus should support only meager buoyancy
   overlapping where enlarged low-level hodographs can persist. While
   it seems unlikely that any of the clusters will have sustained
   intensification, a low probability risk for locally strong gusts and
   a brief tornado will exist through the afternoon.

   Upstream convective development will be tied to an initially weak
   warm conveyor region across the Lower MS Valley. Some thinning of
   cloud coverage is apparent across southern LA into far southern MS
   which should aid in a confined plume of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of
   1000-1500 J/kg at peak heating). This should aid in late
   afternoon/early evening storm development just ahead of a weak
   surface cyclone tracking from the Sabine Valley to the Ark-La-Miss.
   However, the bulk of strong mid/upper-level flow attendant to a
   shortwave trough ejecting from the southern Rockies to the Lower MO
   Valley will lag behind the warm sector through mid to late evening.
   Cyclogenesis will ensue farther north tonight as tropospheric flow
   amplifies. However, stronger shear and forcing for ascent should
   remain misaligned north of where the northern extent of weak
   surface-based buoyancy can advect across portions of northern MS/AL
   to middle/eastern TN. The most likely scenario is still for low
   probability coverage of wind/tornado hazards across the Lower MS and
   TN Valleys, though the region will be monitored for a possible level
   2 categorical risk in later updates.

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