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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

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7 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

@jaxjagman- you expecting any severe cells from tropical storm Barry over the next few day?

 I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

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12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

 I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

Penn state- that’s awesome man.  I hope it went well for you guys!!  Thanks for the update on the severe side of the spectrum.  

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On 7/14/2019 at 8:28 PM, jaxjagman said:

 I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

I have a confirmed tornado on the ground 20 miles from my house right now.  I’m under a tornado Warning until 1:30.  I’ll keep you guys updated 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England, as well as the
   Tennessee Valley, this afternoon to early evening.

   ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England...
   Additional amplification of the large-scale trough over the eastern
   CONUS will contribute to a slight cooling of mid-level temperatures
   and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft coincident with a
   slow-southeastward-moving front across the central Appalachians
   toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. 

   The coverage of yesterday's storms across most of this region has
   impacted thermodynamic profiles, with surface temperatures/dewpoints
   running at least several degrees lower than this time (late
   morning/midday) yesterday. As noted in the prior Outlook discussion,
   12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and
   Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower
   compared to 12Z yesterday and have weaker mid-level lapse rates.

   That said, moisture will steadily recover and ample insolation is
   noted at midday across the Mid-Atlantic in the lee of the
   Appalachians, with MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg possible (highest near
   the coast). As compared to yesterday, somewhat stronger wind
   profiles between 2-6km AGL will also be a factor for individual
   storm longevity/organized storms. Multicells will be common and the
   possibility exists for a few transient supercells from far southern
   New York/northern New Jersey into southern New England. Damaging
   winds will be the most common risk through the afternoon into early
   evening.

   ...Mid-South and Tennessee Valley...
   A moist air mass (70-75F surface dewpoints) remains ahead of a
   southeastward-moving cold front. As morning cloud cover thins,
   increasing cumuliform/thunderstorm development are expected this
   afternoon, particularly downstream of a pair of residual MCVs. Wet
   microbursts yielding localized wind damage will be the main risk.

   While weak vertical shear will tend to limit overall organization
   and risk magnitude, a somewhat more focused/organized severe risk
   may exist this afternoon into early evening across western/middle
   Tennessee and nearby southern Kentucky and perhaps northern portions
   of Mississippi/Alabama. Enhanced winds are noted with the MCV near
   the Mississippi River, with 30-40 kt west-southwesterly winds
   between 4-6 km in recent (16Z) Paducah, KY WFO-88D VWP data.

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Then SPC drops that 'watch not expected' mesoscale discussion. Went about like tropical depression 3. Monday was kind of a choke day on those two fronts, pun intended at the mid-latitudes.

However post-frontal paradise, mild temps and low humidity. will verify nicely!

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Noticed some big cells in Middle Valley areas. Heavy rain here right now but just a rumble or two of thunder every 4 or 5 minutes so far.  Looks like Nashville is getting some flooding too.  Looks like cells in Eastern Arkansas might reach West Tennessee. At least the heat may break there. The H.I in Memphis is 111 and 112 in Jackson with an 80 degree dp.

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Chattanooga hit 100 degrees (dews 72+) before the thunderstorms Tuesday. Normally dews dip into the 60s at 100 deg, but not this time. Glad that's over. Saw Nashville storm anvils but those cells did not make it into Chatty. Lightning and thunder started slowly since it was new development for Chatty. By evening the light and thunder show improved.

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