Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

Here's a sounding for tonight at 4 am for the Allentown area. Quite an impressive sounding: there is very favorable snow growth which would support widespread rates of 1 inch per hour or better across most of PA and NNJ. Going to be quite a show.

I like a swath of 3-6" in the NW Philly suburbs. 

image.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

42.9F...just outside, nice moon and stars. Was also looking for some Chinese space station junk flaring up the skies...didn't happen.

Crashed in the Pacific, where the odds favored it

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Crashed in the Pacific, where the odds favored it

 

I guess I'm late to the party. I thought it was tonight 10pm to early Monday timeline but haven't been really following it. Anyhow, Ch6 @ 10 snow map. Looks about right...(42.9F, steadily going down)

610.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the potential weekend storm, the northern TPV wave that is supplying the cold air has trended much stronger recently. This is suppressing the flow way too south. We need a good balance of the Friday clipper-like system to be strong enough to provide a fresh shot of "cold" air (it isn't frigid but good enough for April) but not too strong to force everything south and pull the baroclinic zone well off shore. Also, the southern wave energy has basically vanished but I'm positive it'll show up again soon in the shorter range guidance. I think this storm has a legit chance for a SECS area wide, MECS for April standards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overnight ens took jumps back N with the weekend system. GFS op and ICON are just to our South with heavy snow now. CMC is trying to follow along. Euro op (posted below) is a nice signal again but just to our South. And I am posting 2 of the EPS members that show the potential this may have here tho there are several more big hits mixed in. I think with the SE Ridge trying to show this does tick N.....hopefully not too far N. We have the wiggle room tho. Crazier is there is a signal for another coastal storm early next week.

Posted are (top to bottom) Euro op and 2 EPS members:348d34b3a6d75026cdf12f1d31531ead.jpgf89eeb1b9b990c31e3f473c344c58423.jpg6e7949982e14236387675d1b7e25afdf.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is kinda funny digging deeper into guidance this morning seeing the weekend system evolve from a Miller B to a Miller A look and now to a simple wave along a boundary to our South. Most might shrug their shoulders and say meh, I knew we wouldnt score with this threat BUT if anything, I feel the chances have actually increased quite significantly with this look. Very similar look to the last system, wave along a boundary, caa to the N, fairly intense lifting and seasonal warfare overunning. It wont take much to get a significant batch of precip to overun the cold which guidance is showing, just to our South. Couple this with the historical trend for these to increase in qpf and move farther N with overunning and I REALLY like where parts of our region sit right now with wiggle room working in our favor. Climo favors N and W and elevation snows but we'll see how cold this airmass is. Nice neg departures being show so that might work. This will move N over the next few days.....my worry is too far N and not for suppression. I could see a similar event to the April 8-9, 2016 daytime storm where it snowed moderately all day but accums were only a few inches. That is one trend I dont particularly like is this is moving in faster and might be a Saturday daytime event now but there are still notable timing differences even with this lead time. If we can get this timed for Saturday PM could be a nice hit for many. Stay tuned on this one and dont write it off because it isnt a huge wrapped up lp.....that potential is early next week as the pattern will be more favorable :-D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Trout fishing starts Saturday in NJ. This weather is getting gross.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
 

Nothing like fishing the Striped Bass run up the rivers during snowfall for me. I'll swelter enough flounder fishing during the summer.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nothing like fishing the Striped Bass run up the rivers during snowfall for me. I'll swelter enough flounder fishing during the summer.

You ever make it to the Mullica River? I have a few choice spots there. Great perch fishing and stripers as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nothing like fishing the Striped Bass run up the rivers during snowfall for me. I'll swelter enough flounder fishing during the summer.
I fished for trout when it snowed the first day before, and it's just a wet miserable snow. If you want to fish with snow, go down to the shore for the fall run!!!

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nothing like fishing the Striped Bass run up the rivers during snowfall for me. I'll swelter enough flounder fishing during the summer.

Ralph,

Start a fishing thread. I'm a bluefishing fan. Don't eat the big ones but hard to beat the fight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Trends...That’ll shift N over 4 days. 

No doubt in my mind. Even if not a true "shift" N of the baro wave, the WAA overrunning will spread much farther N and W. You can already see guidance adjusting N. Like I said earlier, there is ALOT of time to go....hopefully not TOO MUCH. Need to still have wiggle room come Friday.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Which is why I feel good about it. The fact that I am currently on the Northern fringe. Now if I were in DC I would be nervous.

Bullseye rule for them in effect. 4-5 days out....check. Bullseye consistently modeled.....check. Ens individual members clustered N.....check. 

The other day I stated we would start seeing some adjusting N with precip by Wed or Thurs and some models have begun showing this already. Once mesos get in range in a few days I bet the overunning expands N and W and the heaviest snow bands adjust N due to seasonally stronger WAA. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×