Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Irma Remnants Potential


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

There's the usual caveat of being almost a week out, but all I'm doing is filling up the banter thread with Irma posts, so why not.  :P

I have been following this closely (partly because I know people in the path) so I feel like I am well versed in the various possibilities at this point.  It looks increasingly like Irma will skirt or perhaps make landfall in Florida, then possibly make landfall farther up the coast in Georgia or the Carolinas.  A run up the Florida peninsula vs being a bit offshore matters a little bit for our purposes, but not a ton. An offshore track with landfall in GA/SC would likely result in somewhat stronger winds making it farther inland, closer to our area.

Because of where Irma is expected to hit and the general motion after landfall, the area most likely to experience impacts from Irma is parts of Ohio and Kentucky.  The farther south and east you are, the greater the chance. This would include not only rain, but some wind as well.  All things being equal, systems this large and intense tend to spin down a bit slower than smaller, more compact systems.

There are multiple scenarios for what happens after landfall.  Generally speaking, a trough could be somewhere in Canada or the Lakes around this time and eventually kick out or absorb Irma's remnants.  Exactly how this plays out is the big question as models have been all over the place with the depth/timing of the trough.  If the trough comes in quicker/shallower, then it could tend to kick Irma's remnants east and potentially reduce the area of this region that is affected...or possibly even miss interacting with Irma if it's too shallow.  If it comes in a little slower and is more amplified, then we could end up with a system that actually reenergizes a bit and has more widespread affects in the region. Way too early to have confidence in any of these scenarios.

Anyway, enough rambling for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Made me look. This morning's Euro runs the remnant right up the middle of FL and as a result, dying a faster death as it reaches Memphis.  Meanwhile, the GFS has a similar track to yesterday, except it delivers the goods (wind and rain) to KY, SW MO, Southern IN and IL and most of OH with the low remaining sub 1000 until reaching Western KY before dying a slow death, probably thanks to its' depiction of sliding off of the coast until reaching GA.  The Canadian remains no dice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Made me look. This morning's Euro runs the remnant right up the middle of FL and as a result, dying a faster death as it reaches Memphis.  Meanwhile, the GFS has a similar track to yesterday, except it delivers the goods (wind and rain) to KY, SW MO, Southern IN and IL and most of OH with the low remaining sub 1000 until reaching Western KY before dying a slow death, probably thanks to its' depiction of sliding off of the coast until reaching GA.  The Canadian remains no dice.

Would be nice to get a well timed trough to get something a little better/widespread, but recent models not biting.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...