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Ji

Big Noreaster Rain/wind/wet snow thread 1/22-1/23

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Activity in here dropped off a cliff.

18z model runs just about crushed all hope generated this morning for anyone close to the cities...

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2 minutes ago, TSG said:

18z model runs just about crushed all hope generated this morning for anyone close to the cities...

500mb low track was always too far east, we are not in a good position for a cherry bomb like 2/13/14 or 1/26/11.

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Picked up about .4 with this first batch. Took a nice slushy Jebwalk when it was dumping the hardest. Nice to have everything white again. Hope to pick up a little but more overnight. The latest HRRR is showing a pretty persistent band later tonight over our area.

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This thing is pretty much over as far as precip. Picked up just over an inch of rain here. Some wind gusts over 40. Lots of small branches down but nothing major. Overall a typical east coast storm.

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10 minutes ago, H2O said:

Storm winds caused a downspout to fall off. I need FEMA. 

you know that TRUMPS FEMA youre talking about.  better look elsewhere

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Hrrr has been trending the wrong way last 5 runs. Weaker low further east less tucked in. Less banding on the sw side. Fits radar. Not a well organized system right now. Blew itself apart and needs to reorganize and it's doing it right at our latitude. Reverted to the problems of the earlier runs before last night and this mornings high res models teased us with a tucked in well organized tightly would system that deformed us tonight. It's back to the blown apart mess with showery stuff on the back side. Euro never wavered on that look btw. 

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Models shat the bed here with precip totals, was expecting 1-2"+ QPF, yet only have about 0.33" total storm. Had this have been 10 degrees colder and a snow event, it would have been a relative bad bust. This morning the storm was at a similar strength and location to the Blizzard last year, but results are completely different.

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Woke to everything recoated in snow.  At some point after 11 PM it snowed again.  I'd say less the 1/4" over night.

I will say this.  Yesterday was a really bad forecast here.  Not saying I could do better, because I can't, but really one of the worst I've seen in a while.  Forecast daytime high yesterday of 45 with no mention of sleet, snow, or a temp drop.  Reality, temps fell all day and were at 32 by about 4 PM.  An hour of sleet, and then about 1/2" of snow.  Forecast was changed to say that snow would change back to rain over night with a low of 37 (which was already higher than the current temp).  Reality, temp spiked to 34 during the evening but fell below freezing as everything was iced over this morning and the drizzle that was falling ended up changing back to snow over night.

I guess this is why we are all interested in weather.  If even the pros miss a forecast this bad, then it tells you just how complex that forecast was.  

It was a cool storm out here.  Driving rain, high wind, falling temps, sleet, heavy snow.  Not bad.  Had it been 5 degrees colder......oh boy.

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Woke to everything recoated in snow.  At some point after 11 PM it snowed again.  I'd say less the 1/4" over night.

I will say this.  Yesterday was a really bad forecast here.  Not saying I could do better, because I can't, but really one of the worst I've seen in a while.  Forecast daytime high yesterday of 45 with no mention of sleet, snow, or a temp drop.  Reality, temps fell all day and were at 32 by about 4 PM.  An hour of sleet, and then about 1/2" of snow.  Forecast was changed to say that snow would change back to rain over night with a low of 37 (which was already higher than the current temp).  Reality, temp spiked to 34 during the evening but fell below freezing as everything was iced over this morning and the drizzle that was falling ended up changing back to snow over night.

I guess this is why we are all interested in weather.  If even the pros miss a forecast this bad, then it tells you just how complex that forecast was.  

It was a cool storm out here.  Driving rain, high wind, falling temps, sleet, heavy snow.  Not bad.  Had it been 5 degrees colder......oh boy.

I had said earlier in the week with that track and a strong storm, in January  we would see at least some snow. Sometimes all of the models and science discussion take away from just knowing your own climo. 

And I agree. It was a fun wintry evening.

 

 

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I'm just glad this wasn't a snowstorm.  None of the models saw the dryslot and the GFS's 6z run had it still precipitating this morning here.  It would have been forecast 8-12 and we would have gotten like 3-5.  

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