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Aug. 18-22 Severe/Heavy Rain possibilities


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This morning's SPC D4-8 outlook already shows a 15% risk area for E ND and NW MN on Thursday, and a 15% risk from the western UP across WI, SE MN, and IA into Kansas for Friday.  SPC does not seem too impressed at this time for a severe threat further east in the subforum, however.  Also some 1+ rain totals expected in the areas within the 15% severe risk for Friday.

Not sure if this next system from the cold front late this week/next weekend is threadworthy yet but is something to watch, especially with the D5/D6 risk areas and as the system heads further east to areas still waterlogged from the upcoming storm system.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1471203718

 ...DAY 5/THU...
   THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
   DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA ON DAY 4/WED AND DIFFER SOMEWHAT
   WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
   ON DAY 5/THU PER THE ECMWF.  HOWEVER...EACH OF THESE MODELS AGREES
   WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EAST THROUGH ND THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS IMPULSE AND HEIGHT
   FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE WESTERN CANADA TROUGH MOVING TO THE
   EAST/SOUTHEAST SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A
   LEE LOW DEVELOPING DURING DAY 4 ACROSS EASTERN MT WITH THE APPROACH
   OF THE UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
   MOVE EAST...REACHING EASTERN ND BY 19/00Z.  CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER
   SPACE FAVORS THE 15 PERCENT SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY AREA...WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN WAA ALONG
   A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ INTO NORTHERN MN.

   ...DAY 6/FRI...
   00Z ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE SOME WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WESTERN CANADA
   TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AND PERHAPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
   VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...EACH
   MODEL TENDS TO AGREE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH IA TO CENTRAL KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
    THIS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THIS CORRIDOR. 
   THUS...THIS OUTLOOK HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 6 15-PERCENT SEVERE-WEATHER
   THREAT.

   ...DAY 7/SAT AND DAY 8/SUN...
   BEYOND DAY 6...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST AND
   SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
   NEXT WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY...THOUGH STRONGER SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY BE
   DISPLACED NORTH OF GREATER INSTABILITY.

   ..PETERS.. 08/14/2016
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Severe is still a possibility in parts of the Upper Midwest tomorrow and Friday--most of the S 2/3 of MN is in a Slight Risk for tomorrow (latest Day 2):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

For Friday most of the Slight risk is to the west of the subforum but S MN, most of IA, and NW MO still in play: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

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And with the heavy rains earlier this evening, Flash Flood Watch now posted for LOT's CWA roughly along and SW of a Belvidere-Aurora-Joliet-Kankakee line. 

And Flash Flood Warnings for parts of Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois counties in LOT--plus between Champaign and Danville until 11:15 PM:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
808 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL VERMILION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  NORTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 808 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
  BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  ST. JOSEPH...GIFFORD...OGDEN...ROYAL...PENFIELD AND FLATVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 189 AND 201.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

 

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Saturday has strong severe weather potential (loving the backed flow being progged), but bust potential is high to (depending on cloud cover and timing of best dynamics).

 

8 hours ago, Powerball said:

Saturday has strong severe weather potential (loving the backed flow being progged), but bust potential is high to (depending on cloud cover and timing of best dynamics).

Hillsdale's reply:  Best case scenario, a nice fall like MCS is gonna form and be pretty damaging, worst case scenario isolated line segments.

 

8 hours ago, Powerball said:

Saturday has strong severe weather potential (loving the backed flow being progged), but bust potential is high to (depending on cloud cover and timing of best dynamics).

Hoosier's reply:  I guess I'm a little more meh than you on the overall threat level, but they should eventually upgrade to slight risk.  I think there could be some tornado potential as well given the wind fields and moist environment, and it seems like we've been seeing brief spinups occur with relative ease lately.

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42 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Was grazed by yet another pop-up t'storm today (according to lightning tracker, there were to strikes close by).

It's crazy, we've seen more t'storms in the past 2 weeks than the entire March - July time frame. 

I was over at my mom's in Warren and it was absolutely pouring here. Probably got a half inch in 15 minutes.

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TORNADO WARNING
MIC005-159-201745-
/O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0003.160820T1721Z-160820T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...
  NORTH CENTRAL VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 120 PM EDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  BANGOR... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALLEGAN AROUND 145 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GRAND
JUNCTION...BREEDSVILLE...HAMILTON...LACOTA...BLOOMINGDALE AND
PULLMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4235 8621 4270 8604 4255 8571 4228 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 209DEG 27KT 4236 8610

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$
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TORNADO WARNING
MIC005-139-201815-
/O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0004.160820T1747Z-160820T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...
  WESTERN ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 147 PM EDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  FENNVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOLLAND AND ZEELAND AROUND 215 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
JAMESTOWN...BURNIPS...DRENTHE...HAMILTON AND OVERISEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 8607 4283 8578 4277 8578 4277 8576
      4249 8594 4252 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 196DEG 26KT 4257 8602

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

WEBB
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and this from earlier

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  

203 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016      

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON      

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.    

..REMARKS..    

0115 PM TORNADO BANGOR 42.31N 86.11W  

08/20/2016 VAN BUREN MI PUBLIC    

TRESS AND POWERLINES DOWN. ROOF TORN OFF.   RADAR CONFIRMED DEBRIS SIGNATURE.  

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mcd1569.gif

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LOWER MI...NRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201813Z - 201915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS PARTS OF
   LOWER MI AND INTO NRN IND. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
   SWRN LOWER MI...FEATURING PERIODIC BRIEF/SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   VWP DATA FROM GRR AND IWX SHOW A GRADUALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
   0-1 KM SRH VALUES ESTIMATED AROUND 150-200 J/KG. DESPITE THE
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AMIDST A RAIN-COOLED AIR
   MASS...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF
   500-1000 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS GIVEN THE
   FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
   NRN IND. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THESE THREATS WILL PERSIST INTO
   THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   43578407 41658488 40838599 40658647 40718681 41048680
               41638623 42418604 43138613 43598612 43998578 44058564
               44118458 43578407 
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Just now, Hoosier said:

I'm a little surprised SPC didn't at least go with a 2% tornado area.  Even I mentioned yesterday how the parameters looked supportive enough and looking bigger scale, a deepening surface low is usually nice to see.

Probably because of the extensive cloud cover and the poor lapse rates.

Still, in spite of those negatives, the dynamics are still pretty decent with the modest instability that has developed (2000-2500 J/KG of MUCAPE here).

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TORNADO WARNING
MIC015-045-201900-
/O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0006.160820T1835Z-160820T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN EATON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
  EASTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 233 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
  MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHARLOTTE...NASHVILLE...BELLEVUE...ASSYRIA...KALAMO...
  VERMONTVILLE...LACEY...WOODBURY...GRESHAM...BANFIELD AND DOWLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 8535 4277 8509 4277 8504 4264 8478
      4242 8503 4242 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 215DEG 29KT 4245 8519

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

MEADE
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TORNADO WARNING
MIC081-201900-
/O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0007.160820T1836Z-160820T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
236 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 236 PM EDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
  WYOMING... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KENTWOOD AND EAST GRAND RAPIDS AROUND 245 PM EDT.
  GRAND RAPIDS AND WALKER AROUND 250 PM EDT.
  NORTHVIEW AND FOREST HILLS AROUND 255 PM EDT.
  ROCKFORD AROUND 300 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CEDAR
SPRINGS...COMSTOCK
PARK...CUTLERVILLE...BELMONT...CANNONSBURG...GRANDVILLE AND GRATTAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4328 8560 4315 8531 4311 8531 4283 8567
      4289 8578 4295 8579
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 213DEG 35KT 4289 8573

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

WEBB
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