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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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Good line of storms look to be headed south from Lampasas-Waco. Hopefully they make it here, can't believe I'm saying it but we could use the rain!!

 

I saw the anvil and lightning about an hour ago.  The broken line is approaching Hearne.

 

GRK_loop.gif

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I saw the anvil and lightning about an hour ago.  The broken line is approaching Hearne.

 

GRK_loop.gif

Not like there isn't plenty of moist, disgusting air to be tapped here in Austin. Looks like CAPE should be sufficient for storms here, but the line's crawling south. I guess we'll see what happens. There's been zero rain where I am in about two weeks, and the ground's already looking parched with the daily 100 degree heat we've been having. Hopefully this doesn't turn into another severe flash drought like last summer which resulted in wildfires by early fall. 

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Not like there isn't plenty of moist, disgusting air to be tapped here in Austin. Looks like CAPE should be sufficient for storms here, but the line's crawling south. I guess we'll see what happens. There's been zero rain where I am in about two weeks, and the ground's already looking parched with the daily 100 degree heat we've been having. Hopefully this doesn't turn into another severe flash drought like last summer which resulted in wildfires by early fall. 

 

 

The western cluster is merging and hanging together as it moves below Killeen.  I'm concerned about the eastern side as weakening cells may slide just east of us between CLL and Huntsville.

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The 12z Euro EPS now has DFW getting in the last week of July with no 100 degree days. It has a string of 99's towards the end of the run but has been too hot in the longer range. It was constantly showing a string of 100+ days but has backed off of that.

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This weather has been awful. I thought the storms last night would make it down here, but where I live missed out as they skipped to the east and died.

Can't wait to experience a storm again in a month or so, apparently.

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The 12z Euro EPS now has DFW getting in the last week of July with no 100 degree days. It has a string of 99's towards the end of the run but has been too hot in the longer range. It was constantly showing a string of 100+ days but has backed off of that.

 

The ECMWF has really outpeformed the GFS in terms of our temps this summer. The GFS has really been way too hot. Given the amount of rain and exceptional July greenery this year, I would really like H85 temps to warm another 10 degrees for triple digit heat here. Looking at today's 0z ECMWF, I see no 100 degree days at DFW Airport over the next 7 to 10 days. If we are transitioning to a La Niña from El Niño (still questionable) then 100 degree days are usually few here and usually later in the season. The NWS really blew out of proportion the heat over the 4th of July holiday and the couple of days afterward. We barely hit heat advisory criteria at DFW Airport the last couple of days of that week long heat advisory. So far, this year's heat has been very typical of summer weather in Texas and nothing out of the ordinary.

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It looks like the high today at DFW was 94. So what are several people on my Twitter feed showing? The heat index of 101 instead...

The analogs that I've been liking as of late have July as the warmest month of the summer, when looking at anomalies. They also look colder than normal for this winter.

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Today will be the 7th 100+ degree day in Austin. And today like yesterday we have 110+ heat indices. Beyond disgusting. 

Soon, with the strong southerly winds we've had for weeks now, brushfires will be common across the area. The ground is already dry from having no rain in weeks. 

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One big thing to watch in the coming weeks is whether the monsoon returns with a vengeance to NM/CO/West TX. July before Neutral winter is often (47% of the time) pretty dry (<=1" rain in Albuquerque), but July before a La Nina is pretty rarely dry (<=1" rain in ABQ just 19% of the time). The difference is statistically significant in terms of rejecting the idea that the frequency of dry Julys is the same before La Nina and Neutral - it isn't true - Neutral is drier in July.

In the Neutral years with a dry July, the monsoon almost always returns with ferocity in August, while in La Nina...it doesn't. I lean towards the winter being a Neutral now, so we'll have to see what August does, but my hunch is the monsoon comes back pretty strongly.

 

La Nina vs. Neutral after a dry July (less than or equal to 1 inch of rain in July).png

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13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

14 days 100+ so far in Austin this summer including today. We're way ahead of last year so far, and we finished with 25 days last summer. 

That sounds horrible! It looks like DFW will be stuck on two 100 days for at least the next 7 to 10 days, esp. with chances of rain increasing. 

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i-sense-a-disturbance-in-the-force-quote

HGX_loop.gif

 

 

image3.png

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The key issue in the forecast will focus on an incoming trough
that will bring the most serious rainfall potential in some time
to the area. However, while confidence is high in the first half
of the week - particularly Monday - bringing higher rain chances,
there is continuing uncertainty about fine details. There
continues to be divergent model guidance for the rebuilding of the
ridge in the wake of the trough`s passage, which has implications
for both lingering rainfall potential and high temperatures deeper
into the week.

Today into Monday...
Despite the appearance of less capping, showers and storms have
struggled again to get going this afternoon. While more development
has occurred than yesterday, convection has continued to be more
widely scattered than perhaps first anticipated. There should
be some further increase in coverage into the early evening, but
loss of heating will cause convection to wrap up. The WRF-ARW
has backed off late evening precip in the area, which seems
reasonable based on observational trends today, and have not
bumped PoPs up north. Focus then turns to the approach of both a
vort max from the Mississippi Valley and a TUTT low that`s working
its way across the Gulf from the east. Ultimately, took a bit of a
middle road in bringing up clouds and precip chances through the
morning, but focused on putting likely PoPs more in the afternoon.
For the most part, temperatures are cooler than previous days, but
still brought the westernmost counties up into the middle 90s on
the thought that clouds/rain will be late enough to get a bit more
heating in. Still, faster timing could make this a bad move.

Monday night through Wednesday...
As the inverted trough works its way deeper into Texas, there
becomes a divergence in the guidance as to how long upper weakness
in the height field continues. The GFS builds things back a little
more quickly, and while Tuesday carries relatively high rain
chances, things quickly get back to resembling the diurnal
seabreeze pattern. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the ridge
from building back quite so quickly, and stays more wet. The GFS
appears to handle the transition more awkwardly, so the forecast
hedges towards the Euro. However, a deep reading of the PoP grids
does show slightly lower chances well inland from the seabreeze
zone in deference to a scenario with a stronger ridge.
Temperatures are cooler than normal, but still in the vicinity of
90 degrees.

Thursday into the weekend...
Model divergence continues to spread in the extended, keeping
confidence on many details low. The GFS continues to be towards
the drier edge of the guidance envelope, and even cuts off
seabreeze convection by early next week. The Euro, on the other
hand, swings the other way, keeping more widespread rain in the
forecast straight into next week. For what its worth, this is at
least a step forward from yesterday, in which the GFS and Euro
took turns flipping places with each other from run to run. While
a fan of how the Euro handles to exit of the inverted trough
earlier, am wondering if it is falling a bit towards its old trap
of not being quite progressive enough in the long term. Thus, the
forecast takes a bit of a middle road here - splattering some
amount of PoPs through the period, but focusing more on the
seabreeze zone. This may not be the most realistic of scenarios,
but am aiming to be more probabilistic rather than deterministic
here, as this allows for an easy pivot either way as confidence
in the preferred scenario becomes higher. Have trended
temperatures upwards, but the degree to which we warm will again
be dependent on rain coverage.
25

&&

.MARINE...
Light wind regime in place across the area. Deep moisture
spreading into the area will lead to an increase in showers and a
few thunderstorms tonight especially toward morning. May see a few
short-lived waterspouts Monday and Tuesday morning. Light
landbreeze possible again around Galveston Bay. Onshore flow will
dominate the wind field across the area through Thursday with
winds varying from southwesterly to southeasterly being mainly
diurnally driven. Rain chances taper down Wednesday. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  95  76  92  75 /  20  50  30  60  30
Houston (IAH)              79  94  78  92  76 /  20  60  30  60  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  90  82  88  82 /  30  60  40  60  30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

That sounds horrible! It looks like DFW will be stuck on two 100 days for at least the next 7 to 10 days, esp. with chances of rain increasing. 

Yeah, no fun. Today's day 15-currently 101. The ground is completely parched and dry now, crazy considering the wet spring we had. If this keeps up we'll have wildfires soon. 

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DFW ended up hitting 100 yesterday, making it 3 in a row, but rain chances should ramp up today keeping temps in check. Looks like no more 100s for the next 7 to 10 days and then climo starts working in our favor with that avg high declining beginning around mid-month. #Woo 

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Cell from earlier that was off to the NW and eventually collapsed spitting out a nice outflow (missed getting the radar loop b/c was working in yard)

 

CoO2Gm7UAAA7Stq.jpg

 

Then this was the first of several cells that have moved over and around during the past hour

CoPKnqcVYAAPW7T.jpg

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