Canada Winter 2015-2016 discussion

[dan123]

Did some research. Heres what I found at YYZ.

Top 10 Lowest Snowfall

1. 2015-16: 4.2" (valid through 1/17)

2. 2011-12: 16.9"

3. 2009-10: 20.6"

4. 1952-53: 20.9"

5. 2006-07: 23.7"

6. 1982-83: 28.1"

7. 1988-89: 28.4"

8. 2001-02: 29.9"

9. 1987-88: 30.9"

10. 1999-00: 32.0"

Good research blizz. We may as well go for the least snowiest winter on record this winter.

[snowstormcanuck]

Good research blizz. We may as well go for the least snowiest winter on record this winter.

 

I think it's too early for that talk. Still lotsa time to salvage this winter.

 

Looking at Blizz's list, it's amazing how pervasive these crappy winters are the last 25 years. AGW probably has something to do with that, but I wonder when Pearson switched to a nipher for measurements? That may partially account for the listless performance there the last 25 years.

 

In any case, as crappy as a winter that it's been, the Pearson nipher deflated number makes it look worse than it actually is.

[Toronto4]

I think it's too early for that talk. Still lotsa time to salvage this winter.

Looking at Blizz's list, it's amazing how pervasive these crappy winters are the last 25 years. AGW probably has something to do with that, but I wonder when Pearson switched to a nipher for measurements? That may partially account for the listless performance there the last 25 years.

In any case, as crappy as a winter that it's been, the Pearson nipher deflated number makes it look worse than it actually is.

In 2009-10, we had a a very slow start up to the end of January. Things picked up in the final week of February before turning for worse in March (no measurable snow).

Similar sequence occurred two seasons later in 2011-12. March that year was a write-off.

If we are to salvage this winter, having a decent February is a must, but more importantly, March has to deliver. Since 2009, only two Marches (2011 and 2014) featured above normal snowfall. The rest had none (2009, 2010, 2012) or very little (2013, 2015).

[dan123]

I think it's too early for that talk. Still lotsa time to salvage this winter.

Looking at Blizz's list, it's amazing how pervasive these crappy winters are the last 25 years. AGW probably has something to do with that, but I wonder when Pearson switched to a nipher for measurements? That may partially account for the listless performance there the last 25 years.

In any case, as crappy as a winter that it's been, the Pearson nipher deflated number makes it look worse than it actually is.

Yes I think the nipher has a lot to do with it as well but not so much agw. Look at Chicago and Detroit the last few winters they've been getting some of their snowiest winters ever the last few years.

[Toronto4]

The 3.2 cm recorded at Pearson Airport during the storm on Dec. 28-29 seems low. Downtown recorded a total of 7.6 cm and North York got 8.5 cm

[blizzardof96]

There's no doubt the Pearson number is not indicative of what has actually fallen across the city, especially areas along and North of the 401. I'm at 10.5", so we're talking a pretty wide margin(2x higher than YYZ).

[snowcaine]

At 7" for my location (central Toronto)

[snowstormcanuck]

Yes I think the nipher has a lot to do with it as well but not so much agw. Look at Chicago and Detroit the last few winters they've been getting some of their snowiest winters ever the last few years.

 

Detroit's been on an amazing decade+ run but I wonder if that's more of the exception, not the rule. I haven't crunched the numbers but I'd wager, overall, annual snowfall numbers across eastern NA are somewhat lower now than they were 50 years ago.

[snowstormcanuck]

Anybody know what happened to Westcoaster? Haven't seen him at all this winter.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Anybody know what happened to Westcoaster? Haven't seen him at all this winter.

Haven't a clue.

 

This winter is looking eerily similar to that of 2009-2010.

 

It's too bad we couldn't get a big storm like that of January 1966, which was also apparently a strong El Nino year. It honestly does seem like, since the millennium, snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic states has increased dramatically while ours' has decreased.

[blizzardof96]

Haven't a clue.

This winter is looking eerily similar to that of 2009-2010.

It's too bad we couldn't get a big storm like that of January 1966, which was also apparently a strong El Nino year. It honestly does seem like, since the millennium, snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic states has increased dramatically while ours' has decreased.

Once ENSO takes a turn(possible multi-year -ONI stretch), things should change in an anomaly sense.

[dan123]

Once ENSO takes a turn(possible multi-year -ONI stretch), things should change in an anomaly sense.

Ya I think this as well. Once this El Niño dies we could be looking at a multi-year La Niña event which hopefully brings above average snowfall back to the area.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Ya I think this as well. Once this El Niño dies we could be looking at a multi-year La Niña event which hopefully brings above average snowfall back to the area.

True. 1970-71 and 2007-2008 were both La Nina years, I believe.  First year La Ninas also generally result in hot summers I believe (1955, 1983, 1995, 2005 for example).

[snowstormcanuck]

True. 1970-71 and 2007-2008 were both La Nina years, I believe.  First year La Ninas also generally result in hot summers I believe (1955, 1983, 1995, 2005 for example).

 

1999-00 and the horrendous 2011-12 were also La Nina's. We definitely fair better with -ENSO, but it's no guarantee.

[dan123]

1999-00 and the horrendous 2011-12 were also La Nina's. We definitely fair better with -ENSO, but it's no guarantee.

It's Not just La Niña. There are other factors like QBO and solar activity that can impact and trump the effects of ENSO especially if it isn't strong. Anyways we"ll see o guess.

[Toronto4]

I believe 1988-89 was a strong La Nina winter. Toronto had below normal snowfall (87 cm). February to April were the best months that winter. I was young at the time, but I remember the snow/freezing rain storm on St. Patrick's Day in 1989.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I believe 1988-89 was a strong La Nina winter. Toronto had below normal snowfall (87 cm). February to April were the best months that winter. I was young at the time, but I remember the snow/freezing rain storm on St. Patrick's Day in 1989.

I remember Christmas 1988. I got a toboggan for Christmas but couldn't use it for weeks as there was no snow.

[snowstormcanuck]

Got bored today and crunched some numbers. Since 1980 here's Toronto's snowstorm frequency (by amount).

 

15cm (6") + = 1.65 per winter

 

20cm (8") + = 1.02 per winter

 

25cm (10") + = 0.49 per winter (so basically 1 per 2 winters)

 

30cm (12") + = 0.2 per winter (1 per 5 winters)

[on_wx]

Waterloo-Wellington A has a clear error for December 28th showing 23.6cm. IIRC the summary for that storm had 13-14cm for the airport and we definitely had less than 15cm of ice pellets/snow that day. Subtract 10cm off that number and we're sitting at 26.88" for the season to date.

[blizzardof96]

Got bored today and crunched some numbers. Since 1980 here's Toronto's snowstorm frequency (by amount).

 

15cm (6") + = 1.65 per winter

 

20cm (8") + = 1.02 per winter

 

25cm (10") + = 0.49 per winter (so basically 1 per 2 winters)

 

30cm (12") + = 0.2 per winter (1 per 5 winters)

 

I always thought that 12"+ events happened once every 2-3 winters. That is rough.

[snowstormcanuck]

I always thought that 12"+ events happened once every 2-3 winters. That is rough.

 

Maybe once upon a time they did. I'm sure if I included the 1970s data into my computation, the numbers would nudge up.

[snowstormcanuck]

So with that clipper last week that you guys we're reporting 1-2" from. Pearson clocked in with 0.8cm and Downtown a T.
If this is how snow's being measured, setting another futility mark is a foregone conclusion.

[blizzardof96]

So with that clipper last week that you guys we're reporting 1-2" from. Pearson clocked in with 0.8cm and Downtown a T.

If this is how snow's being measured, setting another futility mark is a foregone conclusion.

It's gotten really bad. It's not even close to what is actually happening in the GTA.

[on_wx]

So with that clipper last week that you guys we're reporting 1-2" from. Pearson clocked in with 0.8cm and Downtown a T.

If this is how snow's being measured, setting another futility mark is a foregone conclusion.

 

Amazing how nothing has changed in all these years. 

[Toronto4]

So with that clipper last week that you guys we're reporting 1-2" from. Pearson clocked in with 0.8cm and Downtown a T.

If this is how snow's being measured, setting another futility mark is a foregone conclusion.

Actually temps were above freezing downtown last Thursday so the wet snow melted on contact and only a trace fell on grassy areas .

[Toronto4]

Got bored today and crunched some numbers. Since 1980 here's Toronto's snowstorm frequency (by amount).

15cm (6") + = 1.65 per winter

20cm (8") + = 1.02 per winter

25cm (10") + = 0.49 per winter (so basically 1 per 2 winters)

30cm (12") + = 0.2 per winter (1 per 5 winters)

Nice breakdown. I think we are due for a decent February and especially March. Out of all the Marches in the last 7 years (since 2009), only 2011 and 2014 had above normal snowfall. And three of them (2009, 2010 and 2012) had no measurable snow.

[snowstormcanuck]

Actually temps were above freezing downtown last Thursday so the wet snow melted on contact and only a trace fell on grassy areas .

 

Ok...that makes sense.

[snowstormcanuck]

Nice breakdown. I think we are due for a decent February and especially March. Out of all the Marches in the last 7 years (since 2009), only 2011 and 2014 had above normal snowfall. And three of them (2009, 2010 and 2012) had no measurable snow.

 

Thanks. Here's the list fyi...

 

1. January 2-3, 1999 = 38.4cm (15.1”)

2. February 7-8, 2013 = 36.5cm (14.4”)

3. February 27-28, 1984 = 36.4cm (14.3”)

4. December 15-16, 2007 = 33.8cm (13.3”)

5. December 11-12, 1992 = 30.8cm (12.1”)

6. March 3-4, 1985 = 30.0cm (11.8”)

7. January 25-27, 2004 = 30.0cm (11.8”)

8. January 14-15, 1999 = 28.6cm (11.3”)

9. December 14, 2013 = 28.5cm (11.2”)

10. January 2-3, 2003 = 28.4cm (11.2”)

11. December 18-20, 1982 = 28.2cm (11.1”)

12. January 18-19, 1987 = 27.8cm (10.9”)

13. February 21-22, 1993 = 26.6cm (10.5”)

14. March 4-5, 2001 = 26.4cm (10.4”)

15. February 6, 2008 = 26.2cm (10.3”)

16. January 6-7, 1994 = 25.6cm (10.1”)

17. February 11-12, 1988 = 25.0cm (9.8”)

18. February 8, 2001 = 24.6cm (9.7”)

19. March 30-31, 1987 = 24.4cm (9.6”)

20. March 20-21, 1998 = 24.0cm (9.5”)

21. March 7-8, 2008 = 23.9cm (9.4”)

22. November 13-14, 1997 = 23.0cm (9.1”)

23. November 16-17, 2002 = 22.4cm (8.8”)

24. February 4-5, 2014 = 22.1cm (8.7”)

25. December 10-11, 2014 = 22.0cm (8.7”)

26. February 14-15, 1990 = 21.8cm (8.6”)

27. January 12, 1999 = 21.6cm (8.5”)

28. January 16, 1994 = 21.2cm (8.3”)

29. February 5-6, 1985 = 20.4cm (8.0”)

30. December 19, 2008 = 20.4cm (8.0”)

31. January 12-13, 1982 = 20.2cm (8.0”)

32. December 11-12, 2000 = 20.2cm (8.0”)

33. February 28-March 1, 2005 = 20.2cm (8.0”)

34. December 22-23, 2004 = 20.0cm (7.9”)

35. February 22-23, 2003 = 20.0cm (7.9”)

36. February 1, 2008 = 20.0cm (7.9”)

37. February 11-12, 1985 = 19.4cm (7.7”)

38. February 15-16, 1997 = 19.2cm (7.6”)

39. February 12, 2008 = 18.2cm (7.2”)

40. March 11-12, 2014 = 18.2cm (7.2”)

41. January 31, 1982 = 18.0cm (7.1”)

42. February 1-2, 2015 = 18.0cm (7.1”)

43. March 4-5, 2003 = 17.8cm (7.0”)

44. December 5, 1991 = 17.0cm (6.7”)

45. December 30-31, 1996 = 16.8cm (6.6”)

46. January 7-8, 2011 = 16.8cm (6.6”)

47. December 26, 2012 = 16.4cm (6.5”)

48. February 1, 1986 = 16.2cm (6.4”)

49. March 13-14, 1997 = 16.2cm (6.4”)

50. November 28, 1991 = 16.0cm (6.3”)

51. March 5-6, 1999 = 16.0cm (6.3”)

52. March 23, 2011 = 16.0cm (6.3”)

53. December 14-15, 1989 = 15.8cm (6.2”)

54. February 22-23, 1994 = 15.6cm (6.1”)

55. January 11-12, 1991 = 15.4cm (6.0”)

56. January 9-10, 1987 = 15.2cm (6.0”)

57. February 3, 1982 = 15.0cm (5.9”)

58. March 9, 1994 = 15.0cm (5.9”)

[dmc76]

I remember that Dec 11-12th 1992 snowfall. We had a ice storm here. Little to no snow OTG here. We were trenched in terrible winters after terrible winters here. I went to Toronto that weekend or the following one with my parents because I have a ton of family there. So much snow was OTG. I use to be envy of Toronto winters believe or not as a kid.

Toronto used to always have more snow OTG then here. That's what I remember. Apparently we have switched roles.

[dan123]

Man Jan 1999.