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jaxjagman

Tn Valley March 4-6 Storm OBS

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Euro, euro control, GGEM, and the GFS are showing a significant winter weather system for next week (Wed/Thurs) in parts of the mid and deep south and very cold air following.

The UKIE is not on board.

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Euro, euro control, GGEM, and the GFS are showing a significant winter weather system for next week (Wed/Thurs) in parts of the mid and deep south and very cold air following.

The UKIE is not on board.

 

This concerns me.  I just haaaaad to name that snowman Ukie... gonna bite me haha!

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This concerns me. I just haaaaad to name that snowman Ukie... gonna bite me haha!

Not me the ukie was to far north with the last system and corrected south towards the euro on day 2. It will come around

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Not me the ukie was to far north with the last system and corrected south towards the euro on day 2. It will come around

 

To be fair, the snowman looked like a "Ukie", some variation of the NAM just wouldn't have fit his character!  You have a point :)

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That run will  basically be 1-3 along and north of 40 with some sleet/zr mixed in, but overall it doesn't bring the heavy anafrontal precip from the LP forming on the front that prior runs and other models have.

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GFS is faster with frint and if that's correct we need the SW to eject sooner or it will get squashed

still believe the euro will hold ground

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The only thing about the last system through the Carolinas (and this is a different set-up) is that the models predicting big amounts busted badly because they failed to model properly the battle zone of warm and cold air. I am still not sure that I buy the second wave idea. The models are performing poorly, even SR models in real time aren't modeling things correctly.

Now, what I do notice is the GOM is open for business on the GFS. It likes the idea of stalling a system for days and then generating a storm from it. It even tried modeling this off coastal Carolina. It almost looks tropical in nature even though they are not warm storms. So, this idea of a stalled front might deliver...stalled fronts used to produce big storms. Not so much lately. To me, a big storm moving along an old frontal boundary fits climo better(for March) than a stalled frontal boundary with overrunning. But the Arctic front looks real. But does it push this far south as temps that cold are rare this time of year?

My gut says that if it is only an overrunning event that Indiana will be the big winner with snow and then ice down south or sleet. Middle and west would have the majority of a very mixed bag of precip. E TN gets very little. Now, if a slp forms on the stalled front...we have a totally different conversation. And that might be a possibility at some point during March. The GFS really wants to model that.

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The only thing about the last system through the Carolinas (and this is a different set-up) is that the models predicting big amounts busted badly because they failed to model properly the battle zone of warm and cold air. I am still not sure that I buy the second wave idea. The models are performing poorly, even SR models in real time aren't modeling things correctly.

Now, what I do notice is the GOM is open for business on the GFS. It likes the idea of stalling a system for days and then generating a storm from it. It even tried modeling this off coastal Carolina. It almost looks tropical in nature even though they are not warm storms. So, this idea of a stalled front might deliver...stalled fronts used to produce big storms. Not so much lately. To me, a big storm moving along a old frontal boundary fits climo better(for March) than a stalled frontal boundary with overrunning. But the Arctic front looks real. But does it push this far south as temps that cold are rare this time of year?

My gut says that if it is only an overrunning event that Indiana will be the big winner with snow and then ice down south or sleet. Middle and west would have the majority of a very mixed bag of precip. E TN gets very little. Now, if a slp forms on the stalled front...we have a totally different conversation. And that might be a possibility at some point during March. The GFS really wants to model that.

If my memory serves me correctly, I believe it was a similar set up in Feb 1994 when we had the huge ice storm, especially bad north of Nashville but bad all over, that particular day was unusually warm but we had an arctic boundary come in and stall; it wasnt cold enough deep enough for snow so when the low developed it rained and rad but it was freezing rain. We were without power for over a week. The entry from the NWS in Nashville for the storm is below, hopefully we can avoid a repeat.

 

Feb 09 1994- A major winter weather event strikes the mid state. Temperature at Nashville at midnight is 70 degrees, but a strong cold front sweeps through, with temperatures falling throughout the day. By noon, snow begins as the temperature falls to 32 degrees, and changes to freezing rain by evening. At midnight, the temperature is 23 degrees. By the following morning, the ground is covered by an inch of snow and ice.

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If my memory serves me correctly, I believe it was a similar set up in Feb 1994 when we had the huge ice storm, especially bad north of Nashville but bad all over, that particular day was unusually warm but we had an arctic boundary come in and stall; it wasnt cold enough deep enough for snow so when the low developed it rained and rad but it was freezing rain. We were without power for over a week. The entry from the NWS in Nashville for the storm is below, hopefully we can avoid a repeat.

 

Feb 09 1994- A major winter weather event strikes the mid state. Temperature at Nashville at midnight is 70 degrees, but a strong cold front sweeps through, with temperatures falling throughout the day. By noon, snow begins as the temperature falls to 32 degrees, and changes to freezing rain by evening. At midnight, the temperature is 23 degrees. By the following morning, the ground is covered by an inch of snow and ice.

 

If I remember correctly, that was one of the worst ice storms of my life so far.  I was a senior in high school in Paris TN, Highway 641 was shutdown for days due to fallen pine trees (they used to line both sides for long stretches).  The only way to get around my area was by ATV.  Power was out for several days, we had the contents of our fridge/freezers out in the yard.  Some of my family members ran generators but were without power for 3 or 4 weeks out in rural areas. 

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GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z MAR01   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 12Z 01-MAR   5.1     4.7    1029      98      92             574     551   
SUN 18Z 01-MAR   6.7     5.2    1029      98      99    0.24     577     553   
MON 00Z 02-MAR   6.2     6.4    1028      99      99    0.10     576     554   
MON 06Z 02-MAR   2.5     6.8    1029      98      98    0.06     576     553   
MON 12Z 02-MAR  -0.3     5.4    1033      96      87    0.11     575     550   
MON 18Z 02-MAR   4.8     5.0    1032      80      69    0.00     577     551   
TUE 00Z 03-MAR   2.3     7.1    1028      96      48    0.00     576     554   
TUE 06Z 03-MAR   1.6     9.0    1025      98      29    0.00     576     556   
TUE 12Z 03-MAR   6.6    10.4    1019      99      65    0.03     574     559   
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  14.2    11.0    1015      97      98    0.15     573     561   
WED 00Z 04-MAR  16.4    10.9    1010      95      70    0.03     570     562   
WED 06Z 04-MAR  14.2     9.2    1010      98      99    0.87     568     560   
WED 12Z 04-MAR   0.4     4.6    1019      96      93    0.68     567     552   
WED 18Z 04-MAR  -0.3    -0.6    1023      87      98    0.03     566     548   
THU 00Z 05-MAR  -5.3    -4.8    1027      96      97    0.34     565     544

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GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z MAR01   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 12Z 01-MAR   2.8     6.9    1029      90     100             577     553   
SUN 18Z 01-MAR   5.6     8.2    1029      98      97    0.14     579     555   
MON 00Z 02-MAR   5.7     8.2    1028      98      99    0.10     579     556   
MON 06Z 02-MAR   3.4     8.7    1030      94      99    0.14     580     556   
MON 12Z 02-MAR   1.0     8.0    1031      91      99    0.13     579     554   
MON 18Z 02-MAR   5.0     7.7    1031      79      96    0.06     580     555   
TUE 00Z 03-MAR   4.6     9.3    1026      90      35    0.00     579     557   
TUE 06Z 03-MAR   3.0    10.3    1024      98      29    0.00     579     560   
TUE 12Z 03-MAR   8.3    11.1    1017      99      80    0.04     576     562   
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  17.5    11.5    1013      94      65    0.07     574     562   
WED 00Z 04-MAR  17.7    11.3    1010      96      99    0.17     572     563   
WED 06Z 04-MAR  12.6     9.2    1013      94      94    1.04     570     559   
WED 12Z 04-MAR   1.4     8.4    1019      89      90    0.14     568     552   
WED 18Z 04-MAR  -4.9     1.3    1025      96      99    0.31     567     548   
THU 00Z 05-MAR  -5.1    -3.1    1028      94      99    0.33     566     545

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