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JMU2004

NOT DC/NOVA discussion

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Looks like we will ride the line as always in Richmond but trends are good.

 

Question for folks here. All the forecasts in this area are for very little additional snow Saturday, which seems to go against what models are showing. How we feeling about the ULL and what comes behind the snow up front on Friday?

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I thought the AKQ AFD this morning was really well done.  Not sure how much was model interpretation and how much was is climo for the region given the synoptic setup.  

 

I did notice there was restraint in making a specific forecast at the time for the Richmond metro, given the inevitable uncertainty either way.  So many reasons this could bust high or low on snowfall totals and lots of second guessing either way.

 

Hope the storm turns out well and my tenant occupied former residence in Powhatan is no worse for wear when it's all done.  Lots of pine trees to ice up and fall over.

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"Schools out for summer

Schools out for ever"

But seriously 30 inches just isn't going to happen....29 inches we may have a shot at but no way where getting to 30....haha❄

Looks like the timeframe for the arival here of the snow is going to be moved up a bit .. Hopefully it will add up quickly B4 any kind of mix or dry air that may move in...

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Its about time the airport finally breaks the 12" recorded barrier.    Still not set in stone, but this one of our best shots we will get for a while!

 

Bring her home!

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Snow already in Blacksburg VA ..This thing is definitely coming in early be prepared to have it accumulate quick...Looking at the radar I'd say we are going to have to battle with the dry air in this storm more then then mixing in my part of Glen Allen VA but will see if this changes when it transfers over to the coast...

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Last night felt like Christmas Eve and today like Christmas Morning...except the fact I had to come to work.  The anticipation of a blockbuster snowstorm in the RIC, it's exciting and makes us all feel younger...to quote George Costanza..."I think it moved"


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I was in NY for the 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard, last time I experienced insane rates with 12+ on the ground. There is nothing like it. Hopefully that mixing line and dry slot stays away. Radar looks great, intense looking band to our south and the mixing line being held at the NC border so far. 

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Last night felt like Christmas Eve and today like Christmas Morning...except the fact I had to come to work.  The anticipation of a blockbuster snowstorm in the RIC, it's exciting and makes us all feel younger...to quote George Costanza..."I think it moved"

no doubt, hit 22 last night everything is frozen and ready for stickage

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Couldn't get a more perfect lead in, clear conditions overnight, airport hit 21, clouds roll in at sunrise with precipitation not far behind. That's textbook. Biggest question for me in this storm: Does RIC break the 33 year "1 foot snow" drought? Any thoughts from the board? I'm going positive here: I think, some how, some way, they get it done. 

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PRINCE EDWARD-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-

EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-WESTERN HENRICO-

WESTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...MECHANICSVILLE...

MIDLOTHIAN...BON AIR...RICHMOND...AYLETT...TAPPAHANNOCK

340 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING

TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND INTERIOR NORTHERN NECK

VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS.

* STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS: 7 TO 15 INCHES.

* TEMPERATURES: FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY...BECOMING NORTH

AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FRIDAY

NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS

MORNING...CONTINUING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

BEFORE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY

MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN

FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OR POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY

SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY FROM AREAS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA AROUND

RICHMOND. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY BY SATURDAY

AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WEST

AND NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND HAZARDOUS.

A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO TRAVEL AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE

EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY

WINDS.

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So NWS still thinks we go to all rain around the city? I can easily see sleet or freezing rain, and I expect that, but rain?

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So NWS still thinks we go to all rain around the city? I can easily see sleet or freezing rain, and I expect that, but rain?

 

I'm not sure what model this is, but Mike works works at WSI... 

 

 

A large area of folks in the mid-Atlantic will likely see an abundance of freezing rain. Watch out for power outages https://t.co/kO1qcXFh5n

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4K NAM on main discussion board shows a 24 inch accumulation in Powhatan, drives double digit accums well south and east of Richmond and into a lot of NC too. I mention this because the NAM has been the one model looking the warmest here. Nice change to see.

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RGEM accumulation is why Richmond needs its own board: from 24 inches or so in west end of city/bon air/midlo/short pump....to maybe 8 or 9 inches in the Tri-Cities. This is going to be close

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