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PrinceFrederickWx

Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

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To be fair, there's still some uncertainty there (and thus bust potential). It's a fragile setup, though it's getting harder to ignore the chorus of a low tucked in 50mi e of WAL and decent convectively-enhanced banding tomorrow. Only additional problem I see on further analysis is the potential for a later changeover closer to the eastern shore. That warm nose will be resilient for a while until heights crash and lift can act robustly on that layer.

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SBY looks to be riding the figurative boundary for quite a lot of this storm, given the warm nose.  It's going to be one of those boom or bust scenarios where 30 miles makes all the difference in the world.

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After further review of this morning's satellite, radar and guidance, it's time to bump those totals way up. I'll re-post here in a few, but 6+ looks to be on the table for SoMD and the Ern Shore for sure. There were some hints yesterday about the possibility of the track trending closer and a clean transfer. That seems to be the preferred outcome this morning. In particular, there's now agreement that the H5 and H7 lows will develop just southwest and track just south of the area, with southeasterly and easterly winds at those levels, unlike yesterday, which showed messy and weak flow at that level.
Talk dirty to me..

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Well well well.....this morning I was ready to jump out of the gate and dramatically bump up our snow map, but then I saw the 12z guidance today and the warm nose. Ah!

A very fragile setup indeed. I have SBY in 2-4" and areas just NW (Cambridge/Easton) in 4-8", so I did bump up totals a bit. I think whoever is under banding will truly win out. But a very close call for SBY south. Even southern DE may be in the warm nose for a bit. But these highly convective winter storms can overachieve and impress, even in March. Thundersnow is almost a guarantee in my opinion tomorrow in spots. So it's time to wait and see what happens!

snowmpa.jpg

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26 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Are you getting accretion from that freezing drizzle in Easton? I've noticed the obs have fallen to freezing with some wind there.

Yes, very slight, but everything has a crust on it.  Sitting at 31.6.  We snuck in about 0.2 of snow and sleet before this lull.  

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2 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

Good Morning Fellow Southerners... Working From home today in Central Calvert County. Sleeting pretty heavily at the moment. 32f and 31 dew.

Sleeting here too, nice ice accretion from all the drizzle last night. 31.8F right now. Hoping we turn to snow within the next hour or two.

Location just north of the 2&4 split in huntingtown. 

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1 minute ago, Topher said:

Sleeting here too, nice ice accretion from all the drizzle last night. 31.8F right now. Hoping we turn to snow within the next hour or two.

Yes! I noticed that too when I woke up this morning. I think we start seeing more and more snow mix in as layers cool.

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4 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

Was just about to say it looked like snow mixing in outsides a couple minutes ago. Now it’s 50/50 snow/sleet and at Prince frederick that does seem off, even Chesapeake beach is 32-33. I look on weather underground for stations close to me. I’m fine with 4-6. I think that is doable.

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I wouldnt worry about what NWS is saying now. We have to see how the storm develops and if we can get heavy banding to help out. I think a layer of ice and sleet is nice for the snow to stick to.

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The map for 4-6” was last updated at 4:45am and the point and click (which tallies up to 3-5”) was last updated 7:29am. Not sure if LWX will downgrade us to advisory but maybe northern Calvert is still on the table for WSW level snow, I haven’t checked. 

 

3 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

I wouldnt worry about what NWS is saying now. We have to see how the storm develops and if we can get heavy banding to help out. I think a layer of ice and sleet is nice for the snow to stick to.

All snow now and coming down heavy. I think 5-6 is a good call for all of us. 

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CC on radar shows pretty steady progress of the snow/sleet line. Should clear the western shores here in the next 60-90 minutes and progress across the bay. Some shallow convection showing up in echo tops already.

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3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

CC on radar shows pretty steady progress of the snow/sleet line. Should clear the western shores here in the next 60-90 minutes and progress across the bay. Some shallow convection showing up in echo tops already.

Oh yea, Big Giant flakes mixing in now. We have a nice coating of sleet for it to lay on!

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6 minutes ago, Topher said:

I’m a mile or so west of the China king, oceanic gas station 

Sweet! I know exactly where ya are! I just bought a deep freezer off someone who lives on Miss Sams way last week.

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