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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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On December 23, 2014 at 10:49 AM, NEOH said:

 

Yeah, pretty amazing that we have a positive snowfall departure considering how December has been. Had the pattern held through December the lake would likely have a lot of ice by now. Let's hope for a rockin January.

Nice to see the snow flying again. The trough is making good progress south. You can clearly see the lake connections on regional radar.The HRRR solution is an outlier... But the fetch is more NW than I thought it would be. Who knows, maybe it is on to something.

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29 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Nice to see the snow flying again. The trough is making good progress south. You can clearly see the lake connections on regional radar.The HRRR solution is an outlier... But the fetch is more NW than I thought it would be. Who knows, maybe it is on to something.

We can only keep our fingers crossed at this point...

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Hello all,

As of 10pm, 7.5" so far in snowbelt of NWPA. Snowing at a nice clip now, maybe 1" per hour. Hope it keeps up. Quick question before my Christmas gift to everyone - how do you access / change your signature on this newer board version? Apparently, I do not possess the mental acumen to figure it out...

Anyway, my gift to you all you fine NEOH and WNY snow enthusiasts. I am going out of town to Florida Sat. 12/10 until Tues 12/20 - therefore I am certain you guys will get blitzed with LES and maybe even a synoptic event whilst I am away - no doubt in my mind. Enjoy!

 

 

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2 hours ago, NEOH said:

The radar is looking pretty ragged at this point. Really surprised there isn't better banding and more activity over the lake. Great wind direction but poor band placement for mby... Less than an inch so far.

Things will have to move/redevelop considerably to the SW or else this will be another non-event for a good chunk of people. Last few radar frames look like it's wobbling north. 

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The trough still hasn't pushed through, and bands often move north just ahead of a trough so that may be what happened. Snow had gotten into more of the eastern suburbs but pulled out an hour or two ago. It's a little bit odd to see WNW to ESE oriented bands in the snowbelt but nothing into Cuyahoga County...may have something to do with shear which appears to have done a little more dirty work than I thought. . Winds should still gain a more northerly component and shear decrease some by later this morning/early this afternoon, so things should still shift farther southwest. This does decrease the chances of someone on the southwestern edge of things getting lucky and getting way more than forecast. The heart of the snowbelt will probably do fine with amounts because it's been snowing there all night, but we'll see what happens farther west...still have into this evening to get snow there.

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11 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The trough still hasn't pushed through, and bands often move north just ahead of a trough so that may be what happened. Snow had gotten into more of the eastern suburbs but pulled out an hour or two ago. It's a little bit odd to see WNW to ESE oriented bands in the snowbelt but nothing into Cuyahoga County...may have something to do with shear which appears to have done a little more dirty work than I thought. . Winds should still gain a more northerly component and shear decrease some by later this morning/early this afternoon, so things should still shift farther southwest. This does decrease the chances of someone on the southwestern edge of things getting lucky and getting way more than forecast. The heart of the snowbelt will probably do fine with amounts because it's been snowing there all night, but we'll see what happens farther west...still have into this evening to get snow there.

The trough still hasn't come through? Wow... thought it would do so overnight. Considering the air/water temp differential you would think snow should developing in the western basin. That current band must be locked in on an upstream connection.

Took a drive North this morning... didn't see anything significant snowfall wise. 

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17 minutes ago, NEOH said:

The trough still hasn't come through? Wow... thought it would do so overnight. Considering the air/water temp differential you would think snow should developing in the western basin. That current band must be locked in on an upstream connection.

Took a drive North this morning... didn't see anything significant snowfall wise. 

Did you drive north of route 6? Radar estimated over half an inch of liquid there over night (with a sharp cutoff to the south) so I'd hope those areas saw a decent amount at least. I think the WSW surface flow may have hurt Cuyahoga, as that pushes convergence north of the shoreline there and over the lake...so I'm hoping that changes later this morning. The trough was expected to push through earlier, but surface winds are still SW on land and it looks like there's a trough over the lake still. Getting winds at the surface to shift would decrease shear and also shift the bands farther southwest so that is what we need to hope for. 

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31 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Did you drive north of route 6? Radar estimated over half an inch of liquid there over night (with a sharp cutoff to the south) so I'd hope those areas saw a decent amount at least. I think the WSW surface flow may have hurt Cuyahoga, as that pushes convergence north of the shoreline there and over the lake...so I'm hoping that changes later this morning. The trough was expected to push through earlier, but surface winds are still SW on land and it looks like there's a trough over the lake still. Getting winds at the surface to shift would decrease shear and also shift the bands farther southwest so that is what we need to hope for. 

I didn't go that far north. Went up to Wilson Mills on 306. If Rt 6 was the cut off there was a definitely a sharp gradient.

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Pretty amazing that the band still hasn't budged south. I believe every model had winds coming around WNW. You have to wonder if the trough will ever make it through... by the time it does, the window will be short before ridging pushes in and winds back from the SW. Definitely a high impact event for those under the narrow band. But given the parameters I would have thought the snow would be more widespread.

Looking ahead to Sunday/Monday... does the euro flip to rain around here? GFS and NAM are warm solutions.

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Reports suggest northern Geauga and southern Lake were at 6-8" as of early this morning, with parts of Ashtabula pushing 6" and parts of Erie County seeing a good bit more. Some of those areas are sitting under bands and are doing really well. The bust on the SW edge is looking rather inevitable now and is rather frustrating. Hard to figure why winds never came around to WNW. I suppose there's still a window for that but it's shrinking. Winds over the lake and in the heart of the Snowbelt appear to be WNW but we just can't get that to push any farther south. 

Euro keeps us all snow with that system and would be 4-8"...tough call on that one, I expect us to change to rain at some point, but the antecedent airmass is cold enough that it will take time and a decent thump could occur ahead of the changeover. I like a few inches for northern OH but that has time to be adjusted. 

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53 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Reports suggest northern Geauga and southern Lake were at 6-8" as of early this morning, with parts of Ashtabula pushing 6" and parts of Erie County seeing a good bit more. Some of those areas are sitting under bands and are doing really well. The bust on the SW edge is looking rather inevitable now and is rather frustrating. Hard to figure why winds never came around to WNW. I suppose there's still a window for that but it's shrinking. Winds over the lake and in the heart of the Snowbelt appear to be WNW but we just can't get that to push any farther south. 

Euro keeps us all snow with that system and would be 4-8"...tough call on that one, I expect us to change to rain at some point, but the antecedent airmass is cold enough that it will take time and a decent thump could occur ahead of the changeover. I like a few inches for northern OH but that has time to be adjusted. 

It is strange... winds are WNW pretty much everywhere but where we need them to be. Thanks for heads-up on what the Euro is showing... what looked to be the start of a very snowy period is fading pretty quickly.  Hopefully we will see good model trends but a low going NW of us never bodes well for heavy snow.

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Cuyahoga County was just issued a LES Warning til 10 AM tomorrow (below). Hopefully this is true and that band starts to come down south or multiple bands form.

 

... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATIONS... TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SUBURBS. * TIMING... SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT OUT OF THE COUNTY BY EARLY SATURDAY. * IMPACTS... LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL LEAD TO RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. * WINDS... WEST 10 TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES... DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOW... THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO DRY WEATHER JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. VISIBILITIES CAN VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNED AREA BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN WEATHER... VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS. LOCAL TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS MAY BE IN EFFECT.

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8 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

The band did start to wobble south earlier.   Even had some light flurries .    Could make up alot of snow if it moves back south west.   

I just looked at bufkit and it does show winds coming around later tonight... but then again it showed that yesterday as well. The band is currently oriented on a 290 flow over the lake. Snow is starting to form out west over the lake so that's a positive sign. This event is a good reminder that troughs have a tough time pushing this far south.

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Just noticed that CLE had this in the AFD update...

At this point, starting to question if the band will reorient itself over downtown Cleveland and points south/west anytime
before 00Z. Hi-res guidance more support for snow further southwest as winds back more westerly and upstream Lake Michigan
connection coming into play. This could place a dominant band onshore in western Cuyahoga but impacts would mainly be from 00Z
to 09Z. Will continue to monitor and update as needed.

The meso models agree but have been too far south with the snow.

 

hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

wrf-arw_asnow_neus_36.png

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40 minutes ago, NEOH said:

I just looked at bufkit and it does show winds coming around later tonight... but then again it showed that yesterday as well. The band is currently oriented on a 290 flow over the lake. Snow is starting to form out west over the lake so that's a positive sign. This event is a good reminder that troughs have a tough time pushing this far south.

Radar looking better .   Light flurries now.

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3 hours ago, OHweather said:

Wow, saw a report of 14.4" 4SW of Kirtland as of 3pm. Whoever got hit cleaned house. 12z euro was a widespread 6-8" over the weekend btw. 

Definitely the jackpot area. The snow has been coming down here in bursts... It adds up quickly though. Good news on the euro.

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2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Poking around southern Lake County...jumped out of the car between Kirtland and Willoughby Hills and the snow was a couple inches past my knees. I'm 6'5" tall 

That's definitely the jackpot area.  The band has oriented west to east now so they'll continue to make out. 

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20 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

That's definitely the jackpot area.  The band has oriented west to east now so they'll continue to make out. 

I figured about 2 feet of snow there. Didn't bring a ruler because this was one of those "hey what are you doing after work" type get togethers with myself and my friend with all wheel drive. I'm not sure if they can get 8 or 10 more inches and push 3 feet but it'll be close in a spot or two if this band doesn't move much overnight. 

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