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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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Same here, roughly 1" and not much going on ATM. Montville has already seen 4", so it looks like amounts from that band ranged from about half an inch to 4". That band west and south of Cleveland has been doing some work...someone in Medina County or maybe even Lorain County will end up with over 4". Lake effect appears to be picking up upstream off of southern Lake Huron and winds will shift a bit more so I'm sure we'll see coverage increase and see bands shift to areas currently not seeing snow. 

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Goes without saying CLE needed an advisory, seeing as though:

1) First accumulating snow of the season

2) Very windy, causing very low visibility in these bands

3) Some spots will hit the criteria outright anyways

But, you know when the ground temp is in the upper 40s or whatever it is it may as well be a frying pan and nothing will stick at all until 8" falls.

While I'm ranting, while I don't mind positive busts in the lake effect department, I'm annoyed about missing that bigger band on the west side. That type of band is always possible when the winds go from WSW to NW and swing a primary band inland, but I really thought with a WNW flow the band would be 5-10 miles north of where it ended up. I also wasn't confident in it occurring, so I really underdid amounts in that area.

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Looks like November will probably end as another top 5 warmest month on record. This pattern has to break soon?

December can still be 2 degrees below normal and this would still wind up being Cleveland's warmest year on record. 

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Month after month the warmth continues. November ended up finishing 2nd warmest on record for Cleveland.

June - 11th warmest

July - 4th warmest

August - warmest on record 

September - 2nd warmest

October - 8th warmest

November - 2nd warmest

 

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13 minutes ago, Trent said:

Month after month the warmth continues. November ended up finishing 2nd warmest on record for Cleveland.

June - 11th warmest

July - 4th warmest

August - warmest on record 

September - 2nd warmest

October - 8th warmest

November - 2nd warmest

 

That's incredible !   How far does the warmth stretch ?   Is it region wide?

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

That's incredible !   How far does the warmth stretch ?   Is it region wide?

Most of the Midwest had a top 5 warmest fall, with many stations coming in at warmest or second warmest. 

December needs to average 30.4 degrees or warmer for 2016 to be Cleveland's warmest year on record.

 

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12 minutes ago, Trent said:

Most of the Midwest had a top 5 warmest fall, with many stations coming in at warmest or second warmest. 

December needs to average 30.4 degrees or warmer for 2016 to be Cleveland's warmest year on record.

 

It has been a crazy warm year. I was near the lake earlier in the week and there were still some leaves on the trees. Pattern finally cools off next week... but it would seem extremely hard for this not to be the warmest on record at CLE.

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8 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It has been a crazy warm year. I was near the lake earlier in the week and there were still some leaves on the trees. Pattern finally cools off next week... but it would seem extremely hard for this not to be the warmest on record at CLE.

Hopefully a good lake effect setup isn't too far behind the cool down .  Would hate to waste the warm lake temps.  

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19 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I can see it now. There will be a prolonged significant lake effect event next week but the winds will be SW. The western basin will see water temps plunge into the mid 30s, we'll get a dusting of snow, and south of Buffalo will get 3 feet. Book it.

Noooooo!    Ahh a little reverse psychology . ...gotcha haha.      

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The GFS and Euro runs today do bring winds around to the WNW at some point with the first cold snap late next week...really depends on how quickly/when/if a cutter blows up on the leading edge of the cold. If it blows up to our east or not at all, as opposed to cutting well to our west, we may have a prayer of bringing the winds around to the WNW. The setup looks conducive to a significant lake effect event, somewhere...all depends on the wind direction. This forecast sounding from the GFS is pure porn for the Cleveland metro and Geauga County.

GFS BUFKIT.png

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It's nice to finally stop talking about all the records for how warm it's been and start talking snow. Interestingly, the CLE radar is going to be down this week for upgrades. That should make tracking the potential lake effect event this week extra painful as the neighboring radars won't be picking up these bands. 

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48 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Looks like the models have the abandoned the big cutter idea thankfully. Otherwise OH Weather's nightmare scenario would probably happen. Let's just get the wind around from 280 or more and we'll be in business. Nice look on the models right now... hopefully it holds.

Agreed.   Approx. 280-310 would work very nicely.  I've seen enough of the SWerlys over the last couple of years.....

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The band may start towards Erie or SW NY initially on Thursday but it's looking like we get WNW winds for a good period late Thursday night through Friday evening with extreme instability and ample moisture...we have a couple days for adjustment obviously, but at this point it looks good for a solid warning criteria event for Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, along with parts of Ashtabula and NW PA and south of Buffalo. This won't be an epic event but if it's close to the GFS it'll be a decent event for a number of areas. 

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20 hours ago, Trent said:

It's nice to finally stop talking about all the records for how warm it's been and start talking snow. Interestingly, the CLE radar is going to be down this week for upgrades. That should make tracking the potential lake effect event this week extra painful as the neighboring radars won't be picking up these bands. 

The terminal Doppler will help for the Cleveland metro, but less than optimal timing for the nicer radar to be down. 

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19 hours ago, OHweather said:

The band may start towards Erie or SW NY initially on Thursday but it's looking like we get WNW winds for a good period late Thursday night through Friday evening with extreme instability and ample moisture...we have a couple days for adjustment obviously, but at this point it looks good for a solid warning criteria event for Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, along with parts of Ashtabula and NW PA and south of Buffalo. This won't be an epic event but if it's close to the GFS it'll be a decent event for a number of areas. 

Sounds good!  Noticed cle toned back the wording and isn't using significant .   Wouls think we will see watches by tomorrow.  Hopefully it pans out for a good portion of the area.

Sure looks like we will be riding a fine line in the lr with snow and rain.  Maybe laying down a good les snowpack will help.

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