snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Whole lotta posting before thinking in this thread. Simmer guys, let's not go all accuweather in here. North bumps will likely stop at this point. Smaller scale features will determine where the jackpot amounts are now. Sorry dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Sorry dad. Better to minimize disinformation, no? Would love to be in Windsor tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00Z RGEM at 27 hours is north but precip difference for GTA doesn't look much different. EDIT: Scratch that, heavier precip starts 3 hours earlier. Looks to be juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00Z RGEM way better than the 12Z RGEM. Shows some nice back edge stuff. Also can see the 401 deformation band being picked up on the precip types map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Better to minimize disinformation, no? Would love to be in Windsor tomorrow night. It's a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What an amazing system. It's unusual for Toronto, Boston and NYC to cash in on the same system. I believe this happened in late January 2004 if my memory serves me right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00Z RGEM at 27 hours is north but precip difference for GTA doesn't look much different. EDIT: Scratch that, heavier precip starts 3 hours earlier. Looks to be juicier. Overall the 0z RGEM cut precip compared to 18z. It is not showing 0.3-0.4" instead of 0.4-0.45". The main reason is due to faster propagation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Slight decrease in QPF on the RGEM. I think we've got what we got and it's time to let this thing unfold. edit: ninja'd by Bliz96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00Z GFS is going to deduct QPF slightly by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00Z GFS is going to deduct QPF slightly by the looks of it.Noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like this is going to be a 4-6" event after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like this is going to be a 3-6" event after all. When you consider that a few days ago we were expecting nothing, 4-6" sounds pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Noise. Pretty much. I'm comfortable basing a forecast on 0.4-0.45" QPF. Even using a more conservative SLR (say 13:1), should average amounts in Toronto at about 6". Little less north of the 401, little more maybe near Lk Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Going with 5" for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll go with 4" in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Off to bed. Hopefully everything stays on track overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We'll mike looks like you scared snowstorms away! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Based on the latest data, I'm going with 4-7" across the GTA, with the higher amounts downtown and points southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Environment Canada upped the amounts to 5-10 cm for the GTA in the latest Special Weather Statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Environment Canada upped the amounts to 5-10 cm for the GTA in the latest Special Weather Statement. Lol. I guess they're still behind the 8 ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lol. I guess they're still behind the 8 ball. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 After beating around the bush with the first warning they have expanded it now to lambton Middlesex Oxford and Brant counties as they always were going to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We'll mike looks like you scared snowstorms away! Lol Good. Although it doesn't matter to me. He's on my ignore list so I can't see him one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6z NAM/GFS/RGEM ticked back north. We're pretty much locked in right now. I really like my 6" call for Toronto, with a bit of a N-S cline. Worst case scenario...dry air eats away at our totals and it ends up being 3-4". Best case scenario, we get into some frontogenesis bands under the trowal and get into the 8-10" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 As for the headlines, adding Lambton, Middlesex, Brant, Oxford and southern Halton to the warning was the correct thing to do. I probably wouldn't have gone with a warning myself for Toronto and the next tier of zones. Although I'm calling for ~15cm here, it's going to be over the course of 18 hours. If the best case scenario pans out, we'll probably get the mid-event upgrade we've become accustom to over the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 3z SREF mean continues to be insane, although it did come down by about an inch. Really scary to see 19 of the 22 members AOA 12" for YYZ. The lowest is 6.6". But the ratios it's employing is just nuts and it has almost no chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 3z SREF mean continues to be insane, although it did come down by about an inch. Really scary to see 19 of the 22 members AOA 12" for YYZ. The lowest is 6.6". But the ratios it's employing is just nuts and it has almost no chance of verifying. I think QPF has got to be the way to go with this one. Ratios are just crazy on a lot of these snow maps. Both the 6Z NAM and GFS show 25 cm but only 0.5 inches of QPF. I just don't see 20:1 ratios happening. If the GFS or NAM are to verify, 8" isn't out of the question, but a lot would have to go right. I'm sticking with my 5" call for midtown. I can just imagine the heavier precip being over the lake and a deformation band hugging the 401/407 on the northern precip shield while the centre chunk of the GTA just gets lighter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Feeling comfortable with my 5-8" call. Models are in shocking agreement on QPF with every major model between 0.4-0.5". Of course that doesn't mean it's going to verify, but it should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temperatures dropping rapidly now at YYZ since the onset of the N wind. Still way warmer than forecast overnight, though. We'll see how the trend is today; might hurt ratios if we stay warmer aloft, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Radar starting to fill in nicely for SW Ontario. It's fun to see it at our doorstep. Tonight is going to be a bad night for sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.