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Met1985

Fall thread for the mountains

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Fall officially arrives tonight and boy does it feel like fall right know. We have a current temp of 62 degrees with a slight breeze. Looking for lows tonight to be in the 30s for the high mountain communities. Looks like a beautiful week ahead.

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None of that down here 85! We are going to have some nice weather though. Highs are forecast to be in the low 80's with lows in the mid 60's. Just a bit inland & you get some upper 50's. Rooting for you Mnt folk to have a great winter!

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None of that down here 85! We are going to have some nice weather though. Highs are forecast to be in the low 80's with lows in the mid 60's. Just a bit inland & you get some upper 50's. Rooting for you Mnt folk to have a great winter!

Thanks a lot Don! I hope you post often in our traditional winter thread this year! Ya that is very nice for down there. Enjoy Don and hope the family is well.

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Ahh looking forward to the 40's tonight, it's been a while! I got chilly mowing the grass a little while ago! Now lets get back to fun weather that doesn't require any sweat!

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Ahh looking forward to the 40's tonight, it's been a while! I got chilly mowing the grass a little while ago! Now lets get back to fun weather that doesn't require any sweat!

Lol ya I am looking forward to the mowing season to end. Already down to 55 degrees at 7:30 p.m. Pretty impressive for this time of the year.

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Actually went outside a hour ago and could smell the fire while shivering at the same time. Really looking forward to chills, fall colors, and postseason baseball in October :) Go Cardinals!

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So far this morning we have had a low of 43 degrees. We have the slightest breeze out right know so making the drop very slow. Hopefully we can get a few more degrees later this morning. All have a great day!

 

Looks like I am hung up right at 50.0 lol.  It was 50.6 when I woke up and I was hoping we would drop another whole degree before sunrise but I don't think it's going to happen.

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Looks like I am hung up right at 50.0 lol.  It was 50.6 when I woke up and I was hoping we would drop another whole degree before sunrise but I don't think it's going to happen.

 

Frosty this morning in parts of Virginia/West Virginia with temps as low as 30 degrees. Can't find anything lower than 39 in Western N.C.

 

Looks like a warm/moist pattern will develop going well into October at a minimum.

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I'm just below you guys. I am located in the northern Foothills region but a low temperature of 50 and it is currently 53 and partly cloudy skies with more clouds moving in today which will keep temperatures down into the 60s.

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Nice ride up to UNCA this morning. From Marion up to here I had about a steady 48 to 51 degree temperature. It's fun to enjoy having the window down in the morning again

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000

ASUS62 KGSP 231332

RTPGSP

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR

THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

932 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THIS REPORT INCLUDES THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND

PRECIPITATION FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AROUND 7 AM

THIS MORNING.

.BR GSP 0923 E DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/PPDRZZ

:

: STATION ELEV OBS MAX LOW 24 HR

: NAME TIME TEMP TEMP PCPN

BELN7:BANNER ELK 3770: DH0800/ 62/ 40/ 0.00

BOON7:BOONE 3098: DH0700/ 65/ 39/ 0.00

BRCN7:BRYSON CITY 1940: DH0800/ 74/ 44/ 0.00

FTSN7:FLAT SPRINGS 3355: DH0700/ 63/ 42/ 0.00

HLDN7:HIGHLANDS 3840: DH0800/ 68/ 43/ 0.00

HTSN7:HOT SPRINGS 1400: DH0700/ 74/ 47/ 0.00

JFFN7:JEFFERSON 2770: DH0600/ 60/ 40/ 0.00

LENN7:LENOIR 1300: DH0800/ 77/ 54/ 0.00

MRHN7:MARSHALL 1800: DH0700/ 73/ 42/ 0.00

MMTN7:MOUNT MITCHELL 6240: DH0700/ 56/ 39/ 0.00

MURN7:MURPHY 1800: DH0700/ 75/ 46/ 0.00

ROBN7:STECOAH 2150: DH0700/ 68/ 45/ 0.00

.END


000

ASUS64 KMRX 231356

RTPMRX

SMOKY MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

955 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

FOLLOWING IS THE SMOKY MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

INFORMATION, VALID FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 7:30 AM.

STATION ELEV HIGH LOW PCPN

SUGARLAND CENTER 1600 68 44 0.00

NEWFOUND GAP 5000 62 M 0.00

CADES COVE 1900 66 44 0.00

OCONALUFTEE 2040 75 43 0.00

MOUNT LECONTE 6400 56 36 0.00

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Broke 50 this AM with a temp of 49.5.  It feels great outside!  4km nam & NMM both want to bring in showers this afternoon but I am not buying it just yet.  Seems we don't do that well when the moisture moves in from the NE.

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More local weather research is winding down in Western NC.  This is in addition to the IPHEX/NASA/Duke research that is also concluding.   :cry:

 

http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/09/23/hmt-southeast-pilot-study-concluding/

 

One thing to look forward to will be the all the research papers that come from all the data that has been collected over the past year.

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Broke 50 this AM with a temp of 49.5.  It feels great outside!  4km nam & NMM both want to bring in showers this afternoon but I am not buying it just yet.  Seems we don't do that well when the moisture moves in from the NE.

 

HRRR & ARW both now onboard for showers in AVL tonight.  It will be interesting to see these move in from the east.  Looks like as the low retrogrades the consensus is for showers to show up between 7pm & 9pm.  Lingering cloud cover should keep temps in the mid 50's tonight but looking forward as Marion mentioned in the main thread, the flood gates could open at the end of the weekend.  Both Euro & GFS show a trough dipping into the gulf and bring multiple streams of moisture up through WNC.  High pressure will build to the north sending anti-cyclonic flow over VA/NE NC and funneling the surface low into E TN/WNC.  Orographic lift will be difficult to model this far out but could provide daily rainfall totals of 2-3" in some areas.

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More local weather research is winding down in Western NC.  This is in addition to the IPHEX/NASA/Duke research that is also concluding.   :cry:

 

http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/09/23/hmt-southeast-pilot-study-concluding/

 

One thing to look forward to will be the all the research papers that come from all the data that has been collected over the past year.

 

Yeah, UNCA ATMS department had some fun working with many different partners over the past two years. Hopefully more projects like this come to WNC while I'm still in school so I can get involved. 

 

EDIT: 

 

Took this picture of sunset from Memorial Stadium yesterday. Came out little darker than I wanted:

 

DnQMt8Q.jpg

 

I really like this one of downtown AVL a lot as well:

 

Kwap7F7.jpg

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Nice pic's Blue! I recognize those spots . It looks like a washout is in store for monday with a couple of inches of rainfall on tap for some areas of wnc. Looking down the road both euro and gfs are hinting at a large vort max moving through the mountains. I think if this scenario were to play out as modeled, the high mountain passes will be looking at snowflakes. Thickness maps indicate a trough bring down 558 type air from northern Canada. Indeed this is 10 days out and could change dramatically, but nonetheless, something to watch.

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Nice pic's Blue! I recognize those spots . It looks like a washout is in store for monday with a couple of inches of rainfall on tap for some areas of wnc. Looking down the road both euro and gfs are hinting at a large vort max moving through the mountains. I think if this scenario were to play out as modeled, the high mountain passes will be looking at snowflakes. Thickness maps indicate a trough bring down 558 type air from northern Canada. Indeed this is 10 days out and could change dramatically, but nonetheless, something to watch.

Beat me to it! The models had been waffling back and fourth on a deep trough or a large vort coming down from Canada. The closer we get the better the models are seeing this know. Should be around October 5th or 6th when this could impact us. Anyway it is something to watch as we get into October anything really goes. Also was going to ask when we should start our 3rd annual snow thread for the year! Last year I started it in September and thought I would get yalls opinions.

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Beat me to it! The models had been waffling back and fourth on a deep trough or a large vort coming down from Canada. The closer we get the better the models are seeing this know. Should be around October 5th or 6th when this could impact us. Anyway it is something to watch as we get into October anything really goes. Also was going to ask when we should start our 3rd annual snow thread for the year! Last year I started it in September and thought I would get yalls opinions.

 

 

Yeah I am just glad to be tracking some mid-latitude cyclones again.  Tail end fronts and airmass t-storms are much more unpredictable imo.  I think if this threat become legitimist for the high mountains you should start it sometime next week!  We wouldn't want Mike to have to post snow pics in the fall thread! 

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Euro looks to have backed off on such an extreme solution for the long range on the 00z run.  Big model swings shouldn't surprise us though since we are changing seasons and the atmosphere appears to be very active.

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Euro looks to have backed off on such an extreme solution for the long range on the 00z run.  Big model swings shouldn't surprise us though since we are changing seasons and the atmosphere appears to be very active.

Ya I just took a look at both the GFS and the Euro. The Euro is in and out with the trough. The GFS has a more prolonged trough in the East which could give some of the high elevations patchy frost first the first time this season. The pattern looks pretty amplified through the whole country but like you said pretty typical for this time of the year. Pretty chilly this morning with a low of 48 degrees.

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Euro goes back to an extreme solution in my opinion. GFS looks more realistic for next weekends cold front. Anyway will be interesting tracking over this next week.

 

 

Yeah I saw that Met!  Who knows at this point as the models wiffed so bad on the upcoming rainfall totals. Ha I have zero faith in anything right now but it is fun to look out and I hope the cool down verifies!

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Yeah I saw that Met!  Who knows at this point as the models wiffed so bad on the upcoming rainfall totals. Ha I have zero faith in anything right now but it is fun to look out and I hope the cool down verifies!

Ya it is fun. I think the cool down will verify but just how cool will we get. If the Euro comes into the next 3-4 days and shows a deep trough then I will bet on that.

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Overnight Euro pretty much holds serve with the cold blast coming through and also throws us in another shot of chilly air behind that. Reading the board things are shaping up very nicely for what we want to see in October across the Northern Hemisphere.

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