Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Hi Folks. I like to do this each year (...until I don't ) where we take a brief survey of the cryosphere -- the region primarily above 70 where notable changes in land and sea ice/snow are correlated to polarward atmospheric indices -- particularly with time lag. For those that don't know ... the skinny version of the correlation is above normal autumn land snow correlates to increased frequency of -AO during DJF (the core cold months of the winter). There are papers that abound the internet and various other sources. The theoretical is fascinating for nerds like myself. The gist of it is that higher than normal snow cover increases albedo and gives cold air mass genesis a head start while the long polar night nears. Increased cold in the lower troposphere pulls the thickness medium downward, and this causes heights to rise in the mid levels --> blocking. There is other scientific efforts that center on the chemistry of the air virtually trapped amid the ambient polar vortex. Ozones in this region of the high altitudes is susceptible to flash warming *(a combination of terminating planetary waves (waa events) and possible some electro-magnetic interaction with solar wind..etc..). To begin, looks like at NOAA's on-going 9-year lag monitoring: What immediately leaps out as interesting for me is that of the last 9 years, this year "appears" tentatively as though it will come to a nadir in measured sea-ice extend at considerably higher than any year since 2006; certainly higher than the trend. Warning, the following statement will insight sighs and eye-rolls by pin heads: During an ongoing warming climate event on Earth over all, I believe that compensating signals to be significant. Not so much in themselves -- yes, year to year, these events will vary. But because one must think/dig deeper than the linear sort of observation of the system. The "speed" of the return rates tell something significant (imo) about what is really going on in a system. Last year we noted an astounding recovery rate of sea ice, nearly matched by land snow. Equally astounding were many cold air mass during the ensuing winter. Obviously one cannot rely on those sorts of supposition to support a forecast. But seeing this years sea ice nearing a leveling off some weeks ahead of recent yearly trend suggestion, "could" be another clue as to the truer nature of what is going on up N. I may add to this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 You fukked us John. This is my thread to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 You fukked us John. This is my thread to start. I thought tippy starts this every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I thought tippy starts this every year? Search my topics on September back 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 It's all good. I'm half kidding. I usually wait for the bottom and post and we begin on the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Search my topics on September back 10 years. Haha I just see the word "cryosphere" and think of Tippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Haha I just see the word "cryosphere" and think of Tippy. I think of him almost every time I'm burgeoning. And let me tell you, folks. That is often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Here ya go. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2014 Author Share Posted September 17, 2014 the next update will be interesting. The curve appears to have leveled off 10 days to two weeks ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 the next update will be interesting. The curve appears to have leveled off 10 days to two weeks ahead of schedule.all time record Antarctica ice, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 all time record Antarctica ice, interesting Just curious, does that impact us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Just curious, does that impact us?I don't know, I would imagine it effects us in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2014 Author Share Posted September 20, 2014 And no sooner they make that statement, the next observation shows a late dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 And no sooner they make that statement, the next observation shows a late dip. looks like a tick back up on this latest graph (9/19)....and you look real hard lol http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2014 Author Share Posted September 20, 2014 looks like a tick back up on this latest graph (9/19)....and you look real hard lol http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png ...yeah, i still think the region is better off at this nadir then it has in previous recent years, even including the dip... Just didn't expect to see that -- at least CPC anywho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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