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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

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2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

After this period remains a bit uncertain ATTM... But currently leaning toward the inevitable, and dreaded, death ridge developing by ~June 20, likely ending any legit severe/tornado prospects for the central/southern plains for quite some time.

Aside from some pronounced western CONUS ridging in the June 16-21 window, today's new Euro weeklies suggest that the late June to early July period stays relatively active in the north-central states. Yes, the severe season south of I-80 should largely be done after next week, but that's climo for you. After mid-June it's pretty tough to get anything significant in Kansas and points south, barring some anomalous trough or unusual mesoscale accident. 

As for ridging, the weeklies keep that across the southern tier with generally AOB average 500mb heights across Montana/Dakotas into at least the first third of July. 

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Pending enough moisture return, Tuesday (9/19) could offer a fairly substantial severe risk across the Dakotas mainly. Consensus for a strong, negatively tilted shortwave pivoting east/northeast out of that large trough in the northwest with a broad, 40-50 kt southerly/south-southeasterly LLJ axis becoming established by 21z Tuesday. Don't see many problems with forcing for ascent (so much so that fairly quick linear transition is more of a concern than a cap bust), and if enough southwesterly 500 mb flow can overlap the LLJ axis, deep layer shear shouldn't be an issue either.

Seems to me like it could be the first healthy risk of the "second season". Also, the primary trough/ULL remains in the west in behind, which could lead to further potential later in the week, although that's still TBD.

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